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My favourite number’s 1 so I’ll have £250 on 1 at 7/2 please Ginge
:lol:
I’ll take your bet
You’re gonna regret,
cos I’m the best that’s ever bin.Value Is Everythingwould you say you have a good grasp of the form book,by backing 6/7 in a 13 runner race? or is it just panic ‘value’ scatter gun approach
Zark’ gave you a good analogy of the spin of a coin earlier nwalton, so I’ll use the throw of a dice to explain why I might back half the field:
With a throw of a dice every numbber has a 1 in 6 (fair 5/1) chance.
If a friend makes a book and offers me:1) 7/2
2) 6/1
3) 9/2
4) 7/1
5) 4/1
6) 7/1I wouldn’t dream of criticising anyone who wanted to have just one sole bet on either the 4 or the 6, that’s their preference and there’s nothing wrong with it.
My own way of betting would be:
I’ll back both the 4 and the 6 as main bets because they are excellent value @ 7/1, with a saver on the 2 because that is also value (but not as much value) @ 6/1. Yes, backing half the field. May also lay others in the race but I generally don’t put lay bets up on my thread.But i think the 3 is well handicapped and will like the ground and simply fancy it to win. Even though i know its not ‘value’ mathematically but its my fancy.
btw on my thread was 77 pts for the year,since i moved it to twitter from july this year when started posting i am just over 80 pts up,i back mainly to £100pp so not to shabby for a clueless bloke,and most bets are under 4 pt bets.
I have not called anyone a “clueless bloke”.
My definition of “good at reading form” is to be able to read it well enough to make a profit. We know that no more than 1 in 20 of all punters make a profit. So even if the average TRFer is more knowledgeable it’s not going to up that percentage by much, therefore the “vast majority” are not good enough at reading form. May be the average TRFer is more knowledgeable than the average punter. But unfortunately most don’t write long enough analysis for me to make that conclusion. As I said:
On the evidence of what is written on here the analysis of most isn’t up to making a profit. Am sure there’s a few TRFers who are good at reading form who haven’t shown it on these pages.
You may be one who’s of the last sentence nwalton?
Value Is Everythingthat no more than 1 in 20 of all punters make a profit
I would put that more in the region of 1 in 20,000. Certainly 1-20 is a little low.
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