Cesarewitch 2016

Thanks Joe,

Steeplechasing wrote:

From what I saw of St Michel on the ML, he looks a very difficult ride

St Michel is a strange one. In a way he’s a tricky ride for the jockey, but is in some ways the perfect handicapper. Travels well and then once in front pulls himself up and appears to win all out. So the handicapper finds it difficult to assess him. However, that’s no good when they don’t stay. Think he’d stay in ideal conditions but… drawn wide, may be they lit him up to get a good position today – too free – and as a result didn’t get home. Possibly made too much use of Starchitect. But the other well handicapped horse Sweet Selection did the biz. Stays all day and genuine as they come.

Don’t forget TAPK…
…And he only backed the one horse!

kasparov wrote:

There was a lot of talk about the draw prior to the race. I didn’t get the impression it had much effect. The winner seemed to get into a good position early without too much effort. I would guess the draw effect is 2 or 3 pounds at most, certainly a lot less than the winner’s well in amount.

When a horse has a stone in hand he/she is far more likely to win from a poor draw Kasparov. However, amount of effect the draw has on a horse’s performance depends on a number of things and is by no means universal, mainly to do with pace and temperament. Can be zero or next to no pounds, can be a whole lot more.

One way to negate the effect of the draw is to go off quicker in an attempt to get across in to a prominent position in the favoured part of the track. However – if the rest of the field go off at a strong pace – achieving a prominent position from an unfavourable draw could mean they use too much energy, going off too quickly for their own good and reducing their chance of winning. In today’s Cesarewitch all three favourites chose this option. Starchitect went to the front of the 32 runner field from his poor draw, he’s usually ridden prominently but at a lesser distance (on flat). Starchitect wasn’t sure to stay and may have raced a touch more enthusiasticly than ideal – because of the draw – leading the field. I was expecting St Michel to be held up towards rear as usual. However, seemed as if the jockey wanted to get out and race in the first half of the field, got trapped out wide and at times without much cover. Always doing that little bit too much. Had he been well drawn could have got a place in amongst horses and settled better and/or raced in a position he’s more accustomed to (further back). Therefore, you could say a poor draw was proved a big negative for both Starchitect and particularly St Michel. In contrast, Sweet Selection always settles well and one the jockey can do anything with. Initially pushed along to get a fairly prominent early position, you could see once that was achieved SDS dropped his hands and the horse immediately settled. There weren’t as many established prominent runners as you’d expect in a 32 runner field. Had there been a fight for the early lead those ridden in the first half of the field may have raced too fast and been disadvantaged – but that did not happen. Sweet Selection was imo barely effected by the poor draw.

Another way of negating a poor draw is to do the opposite, take a pull out of the stalls and settling in rear, moving the horse across to the most advantageous part of the track. York’s sprint course has this year generally favoured low numbers. Shane Kelly was drawn poorly today on Sir Dancealot, but this horse is usually either held up or dropped right out the back – which makes this tactic is easier to achieve than if a horse is used to getting out of the stalls as fast as possible. When these tactics are tried (whatever the distance) if pace is a good one the gaps usually open up, because many of the leaders are coming back. Where as if a slow pace then the jockey is not only trying to find a gap that’s less likely to appear because they’re not coming back to him… But also trying to quicken in the last couple of furlongs at the same time as those in front are quickening from a better position. Shane Kelly quickly got across to race at the back and was lucky enough to find it opening up. Don’t think the pace was particularly fast and Sir Dancealot is quite a bit better than the winning distances suggest.

At Goodwood’s 7f or mile races a low draw is usually quite a big advantage. I’ve made a few quid over the years backing prominent runners. Even better if they’re drawn low. Not only are those on the inner saving ground, but going around a turn means the leading jockey/s can usually slow the pace down without others wanting to rush around him/them. Being in a more advantageous/forward position for the kick for home. Although if there are too many prominent runners they can still take each other on and go too fast.

Strange thing is there is one type of race when it can actually be beneficial to be “poorly drawn”. When the pace is overly strong! Hold up horses drawn well can try and get a mid-field position, where as poorly drawn hold up horses are invariably dropped right out the back… So are in an advantageous position as those who’ve gone too fast in front (and mid-div) come back to them in the closing stages.

buckers wrote:

Well done Ginger with the winner, he Won in good style for you.

I was really pleased to get some money back from The Cashel Man but he didn’t look at any stage during the race that he would trouble the winner. I think he is a horse worth following again next year.

Good ew draw Buckers, well done.

Depends what you mean by “following”. I’d be a little wary about following The Cashel Man blindly next year. I considered a fifth bet in the race yesterday as (strictly speaking) on “form” had a chance bigger than 25/1 suggests. However, for my win only purposes discarded him because of a history of running on for a place once the race is won. May be at a price you can take each way as a saver it’ll be ok, better still place only… not win only imo.