Caspian Caviar Gold Cup 2016

Gord, I wouldn’t be having a serious bet on the race. I spent half an hour trawling through and dug out those three or four I mentioned to have a fiver on. Thomas Brown strikes me as a possible improver, but I could easily be wrong. As you mentioned, yours doesn’t win often enough for my liking though granted he’s been keeping better company. Unless there’s a compelling case, I also have a tendency to avoid Nicholls in races like these where I think his horses get overbet.

A fascinating race where Kylemore Lough still looks good value at 11s with Betway. He drifted to 26 at one point on Betfair and I had assumed he’d miss it, but he’s declared and will have a fine chance.

Nothing has put me off Roman Flight who still looks about 10 points too long at 25s. Fehily has come off him to ride Thomas Brown for Harry Fry – he rides a lot for Fry but I don’t know if he has a retainer there. Anyway, D Russell has been booked for Roman Flight who looked cooked 2 out in a decent race at Newbury last time. He seemed to charge home from the last but I suspect the others were faltering having gone too fast.

There might have been an element of luck there, but he won and maybe it helped make up for defeat over 2 miles in a previous race where he’d lost his chance with a bad blunder in the Ascot race behind Quite By Chance. But he kept on very honestly – that seems characteristic of him despite wearing a visor – to finish within 8 lengths of the winner. That perseverance at the end of a race could stand him in very good stead up the hill on Saturday.

Prior to this he’d skated up at Stratford and all in all I think 25s is very good value. He sometime gets the occasional fence badly wrong (he’s not that big, certainly not an obvious chaser) so I’ve backed him with Coral on mobile (money back as free bet if a fall/UR).

I’ve deserted Sizing Codelco as there’s a chance he does not want good ground. I’ll review this if the rain comes.

So, in the hope of turning some kind of profit I’ve backed:

Solar Impulse at 85

Roman Flight at 25

Thomas Brown at 12

Kylemore Lough at 11

Village Vic at 7

Forced to have just one bet with value the priority, it would be Roman Flight Good luck all.

Steeplechasing wrote:

A fascinating race where Kylemore Lough still looks good value at 11s with Betway. He drifted to 26 at one point on Betfair and I had assumed he’d miss it, but he’s declared and will have a fine chance.

Nothing has put me off Roman Flight who still looks about 10 points too long at 25s. Fehily has come off him to ride Thomas Brown for Harry Fry – he rides a lot for Fry but I don’t know if he has a retainer there. Anyway, D Russell has been booked for Roman Flight who looked cooked 2 out in a decent race at Newbury last time. He seemed to charge home from the last but I suspect the others were faltering having gone too fast.

There might have been an element of luck there, but he won and maybe it helped make up for defeat over 2 miles in a previous race where he’d lost his chance with a bad blunder in the Ascot race behind Quite By Chance. But he kept on very honestly – that seems characteristic of him despite wearing a visor – to finish within 8 lengths of the winner. That perseverance at the end of a race could stand him in very good stead up the hill on Saturday.

Prior to this he’d skated up at Stratford and all in all I think 25s is very good value. He sometime gets the occasional fence badly wrong (he’s not that big, certainly not an obvious chaser) so I’ve backed him with Coral on mobile (money back as free bet if a fall/UR).

I’ve deserted Sizing Codelco as there’s a chance he does not want good ground. I’ll review this if the rain comes.

So, in the hope of turning some kind of profit I’ve backed:

Solar Impulse at 85

Roman Flight at 25

Thomas Brown at 12

Kylemore Lough at 11

Village Vic at 7

Forced to have just one bet with value the priority, it would be Roman Flight Good luck all.

I’ve studied this race up and down for about 3 weeks now Joe,I’ll spend 3 months on some but there is no way in this world ‘Kylemore Lough’ can win this,he simply isn’t good enough and yet at this rate he’s going to go off Fav..Yes he’s a Grade 1 Winner and normally that counts for a lot but he beat 1 horse in what has to be the weakest Grade 1 of last year..Yes he beat ‘Gods Own’ last time out and that form looks solid but he’s got 11-10 to shoulder and one swallow doesn’t make a summer.Off virtual level weights ‘Village Vic’ will beat him but confirming form with Bouvreuil could be tougher for the Hobbs horse.I’ll settle for both mine to be placed at 16/1 though and all things being equal they will.Good luck all the same.

ratings

kylemore loch, kings oddysey, roman flight

This is proper tricky but I have been tempted by ASO and SOLAR IMPULSE.

I am not convinced with Aso at this trip but cannot let him run without backing him!!

And Solar Impulse did me a right favour at the festival and is only five pound higher and if the rain stays away will love the ground.
The only other one I was interested in was Bouvreuil but I think he is too short a price for what he has achieved so far.

I believe BUYWISE has an excellent chance of being placed and reasonable prospect of a long overdue victory in this ultra competitive race

Horses aged 9 and up don’t win this. Bye bye, Turban, Module, Buywise and Village Vic.

Also a huge advantage to be French-bred. Bye bye, Kylemore Lough, Quite By Chance, King’s Odyssey, Thomas Brown and Sizing Codelco.

I suspect Full Shift is being prepared for a race at Kempton around Christmas, so we can overlook him. Bye bye, Full Shift.

I expect Roman Flight is handicapped to the max. Also interesting that despite the great record of French-bred horses, the 3 winners aged 8+ were all GB/IRE-bred. Bye bye, Roman Flight (and Module, and Buywise, and Turban. Again.)

So…Bouvreuil, Solar Impulse, Aso, Frodon and Aloomomo.

I have to agree with TAPK, I can’t see Aloomomo doing anything in this. He’s handicapped to the max because of that facile win in soft ground at Newbury. Well the ground today is quick, and he won’t be winning this. Bye bye, Aloomomo.

Bouvreuil…a lot of judges like him. Easy to see why. I just wonder whether the ground might be a bit too quick for him. He kind of got detached from the front 4 in the Paddy Power and was only running on late when his stamina kicked in. He’s finished 32025 in handicaps and gone from 133 to 146 in the process and might be in danger of maxing out his mark without winning a race. Both wins came on soft/heavy – he finished 5th of 5, beaten 29L on his only start on good ground. I don’t see any obvious reason why he should finish ahead of Aso, other than the ground. Aso killed him in the Paddy Power. Was held up behind him, flew past him, belted the last 2 and still finished ahead. I can’t see the 5lb swing in Bouvreuil’s favour reversing terms.

Aso. Ground concerns also plague him. His 5 career wins all come on soft/heavy. He’s never run on ‘good’ ground or quicker before in this country. He killed Bouvreuil in the Paddy Power, he has much more speed (wasn’t completely disgraced in the Arkle), he beat Ballyalton off even weights in January on soft ground (Bouvreuil was getting 2lbs from Ballyalton in March and got beaten 1/2L) and he goes into the Caspian with an outstanding chance. He’s a Venetia Williams system qualifier, he’s French-bred, he’s the right age and he’s had the right prep. But is the ground right? If it’s right, I believe he’ll win. Interestingly, he’s only run in 2 handicaps – first, behind Arzal, who went on to win a Grade 2. The 4th + 5th won handicaps on their next or 2nd next start.

Frodon. No such concerns here. In fact the concerns for him are the reports of potential rain. 4/5 of his career wins have come on good ground. Ignore the 0 from the Paddy Power. He made a big mistake which effectively ended his race when making a move and had run only 7 days earlier. Like Aso, he’s French, he’s the right kind of age and he’s had the right kind of prep. Trained by PfN (has won this race 3 times with French-bred horses). My only other concern would be his age (4), but his price is nice enough to take the chance.

Solar Impulse – I reckon his connections are just looking to get his handicap mark down for March.

Strongest claims
1. Frodon
2. Aso

I’ve had a fair bet on SIZING Coldeco ante post. He will improve for the step in trip and runs off a lovely racing weight. Stable are flying, I’m expecting a different horse to turn up today.

Also had a dabble on and ASO and BOUVERIUL. Good luck all

I’m going for Frodon and Aso. Younger horses have often done well in this and these two had decent races in the Betvictor. I’ve hedged my bets a bit regards the ground, as i think Aso would like it softer but Frodon quicker, so going for both of them.