Bet365 Gold Cup 2016

The last big race of The National Hunt Season, on these shores anyway, and after a few years in the wilderness, this race has had something of a revival in recent times, with some very decent fields the last few years. Looks the same again this year, with a whopping 53 still in contention.

A decent race for me in the past, with quite a few winners, and usually manage to get at least one placed. Thought I was on to a proper payout last year, with Guess Again given one of the rides of the season to take it up close home, but he just ran out of gas, finishing 5th. I went for Vic’s Canvas at the very last minute, and having looked nailed on close home, he was caught by Just A Bloody Par close home. Gutted, but good to get the each way returns on the 2 of them I suppose.

Just A Par remains in the field this time around, and he’s off the back of a run The National, but he was never in it, and if he was mine, I’d have kept him for this. I couldn’t have had him on my mind for this last year, but to be fair to him, he did finish like a train, and was a deserved winner. He’s not been given much respite from the handicapper though, and I think he might just be vulnerable this time around. Stable is in flying form though, and you can bet Nicholls will be throwing as many darts as he can, in an effort to retain the trainers title. He has other options, including the current market leader, Southfield Theatre. He’s not really done much since his 2nd to Don Poli in last years RSA, though clearly has his fair share of ability. Looked to be struggling early doors in The Ultima at The Festival, but looked to be working his way in to it, when he was brought down. He’s been red hot in the market the last week, there’s been a constant sea of blue on Oddschecker, so he must be showing plenty, but he might just be a shade short for me at this 5 day stage. As I said though, yard is flying, and despite his relatively short price he’s hard to be too negative about. Wonderful Charm is near the head of the weights, and solid enough as he is, he never figured at Aintree, and I’m just of the opinion that he’s a very poorly handicapped horse. It’s hard to see how he managed such a lofty perch of 158, and he’ll be running 4 lbs lower in future. Rocky Creek, like Wonderful Charm, pulled up in The National, and he looks to be quickly regressing. You get the impression he’s fell out of love with it. He did me a turn last year at Kempton when he suddenly returned to form, but should he do so here, he won’t have my money on him. After narrowingly missing out in The Foxhunter at Cheltenham, he really should have won, Pacha Du Polder, was something of a flop in The Foxhunter at Aintree. I fancied him that day, but unlike a couple of his stablemates, I’d be willing to give him another chance, and over this trip, he looks big at 33’s. He’d be my idea of Nicholls best chance, along with, obviously, Southfield Theatre.

Just in front of Pacha at Cheltenham was Paint The Clouds, and he took the same route to this last year, when he wasn’t far away in 4th. He’ll come here only a pound higher this time, and with him him being in decent enough form this season, then the 16’s looks about right.

You can be sure Willie Mullins will be keen to add this race as well, as it could be key for that trainers title. I can’t have Sir Des Champs for this, but wouldn’t be as cool on the chances of Pleasant Company, or Measureofmydreams. I’ve kept a close eye on Pleasant Company this year, even throwing a few quid at him Ante-Post for Cheltenham. Just short of what’s required for the top-end Novice Chases, I’ve always had something like this in mind for him, and he makes some appeal at 25’s. I get the impression that his owner is a fan of this race, and he’s often represented. Measureofmydreams went close at Cheltenham, and he followed this up with a spin at Ayr on Saturday. Seemed to be going well when he came down, and his chances would appear to depend on how much that took out of him. If none the worse for it, then he looks ideal for this, and looks to have a few lb’s in hand, as he’s going the right way. He’s also got the better of Pleasant Company this season, and could be another big winner for Gigginstown.

Gigginstown also have Thunder and Roses, and Sub Lieutenant in there. Thunder and Roses, last years Irish National winner, has had a quiet campaign. A bit to do at the weights I suppose, though I was keen on him had he taken his chances at Ayr, but he could find the ground against him at Sandown. I’d slightly favour his stablemate Sub Lieutenant, though he also has work to do, having pulled up at Fairyhouse. He should though, appreciate the conditions here, and having kept decent company most of his career, I very much feel as if he’ll pop up in something like this, and I don’t think we’ve seen the best of him yet.

Another potential Irish challenger is Spring Heeled. With conditions currently good to soft, he wouldn’t want any more rain, and the burden of my cash was enough to see him run an absolute shocker at Cheltenham. He really was poor that day, showing no interest at all, before being brought down when well behind. The win ratio of Jim Cullotty has been well documented, so maybe not the most obvious for this. He did run well in this seasons Munster National though, as well in this 2 years ago, so he could surprise, and may be down to what kind of mood he’s in.

That race 2 years ago, went to Hadrians Approach, and he’s been seen sparingly since. A decent horse, who’s unfortunately, never been the most fluent, as when exiting at the first in The National. His comeback at Kempton was encouraging though, going down to Theatre Guide, and he’ll head here 2lbs lower than 2014, so dangerous to dismiss. Theatre Guide was a very impressive winner at Kempton, something of a handicap blot, and it would be a big performance to land this. A faller last time at Cheltenham, when not really asked a question, it remains to be seen just what effect the hike in the weights will have done to his chances. Yard have had a great season, and would it really be that big of a shock if he ran well. 20’s to find out.

Near the head of the market, is the Neil Mulholland trained The Young Master. I’ve went on and on about this horse a lot on here, and I just think he’s got plenty to offer for races like this. Looked to be destined for the top, until given a strange ride in last years RSA. Took him a while to get going this time around, but was much like his old self at Cheltenham, and after a strange campaingn, he looks the obvious type for this, and I’m surprised he’s not shorter. 14’s looks very big. He was a surprising absentee from the entries for The Grand National, and he’s my idea of the winner of next years race, along with the Peter Bowen trained, Henri Parri Morgan. He went to Aintree on a roll, and only found the very promising Native River too good. Still early days with him, and Bowen looks to have a potential star on his hands. I’d be very surprised if he doesn’t go close here, and the 14’s has went now. He’s no bigger than 10’s now.

Mulholland is also represented by The Druids Nephew, and Caroles Destrier, while Bowen also has Al Co. Al Co might struggle to get in, but should he make it, then he’s worth a bet at 33’s. It’s taken him a while to get going, after his win in The 2014 Scottish National, but he ran a cracker last time, and the drier conditions here should be ideal. A very well handicapped horse, and I’d love to see him sneak in, but it’s looking unlikely. The Druids Nephew flopped at Aintree, whilst Caroles Destrier was equally poor at Cheltenham. I still reckon that The Druids Nephew would have won last years National, but for slipping, and had him down as dark horse for The Gold Cup, but so far this season, he’s been miles short of that. Like The Young Master, he’s had a strange prep, obviously geared solely protecting his mark for Aintree, and once the rains came in the lead up to The National, that was that. Never a fan of this type of prep, and they’ll surely be on a recovery mission here. Hard to forget his very impressive win at Cheltenham last year though, and providing there’s not too much juice in the ground, he’s got a squeak, as long as he jumps better than he did at Aintree. Caroles Destrier, fresh from a wind op, looked to be something of a dark horse for The Ultima at Cheltenham, but he didn’t run well, and was beaten anyway, when he blundered badly, and pulled up. He does like it here though, has a course and distance win to his name, in this seasons London National. He’ll face different conditions here though, not to mention tougher opponents, but still well capable of a good show.

Drop Out Joe got the better of Caroles Destrier in this seasons Badger Ales Trophy, and I fancy him to confirm the placings. He’s a long term fancy of mine for this, and as well as winning that Badger Ales, he also destroyed a solid field on his seasonal debut at Chepstow. He was also in fine form last year, running big races in The Grimthorpe & The Scottish National. This has been the plan for a while, and both his runs since Wincanton are easily forgiven, as in the process, he’s dropped a nice 5 lbs. He looks huge at 33’s, but hopefully that price will hold for my EW bet on the day.

Sausalito Sunrise went down to Drop Out Joe that day at Chepstow, but he’s went on from that, and had a fine season, including taking care of a decent field in the mud at Cheltenham, as well as Ofaolains Boy, at Ascot. There was talk of him getting supplemented for The Gold Cup, so highly thought of by connections, connections who’s runners are always worth a second look in this. He’s Hobbs only runner, and that’s enough for me to take him seriously, given his record in the race. Big weight to carry, but he just might be good enough to do it. Off the back of his run in The Gold Cup, then you can’t possibly rule out Ofaolains, and he held up with them for a very long way. It was an eyecatching run, better than that of a 151 horse, and despite taking a long time to come back to himself, the trainers form has picked up, and he looks very backable at 20’s. At the weights, I’d just favour him to reverse the placings with Sausalito.

Sego Success was another of those horses behind Drop Out Joe at Chepstow, but he fairly caught the eye, and he became a long term fancy of mine for The Scottish National. He swerved that though, and despite a topsy turvy season, I’d give him a squeak here. Well capable of a prize like this, and he looks well treated for his win at Doncaster. I’d like the Alan King to be in slightly better form, but he looks to have a live each way chance here. His stablemate Ziga Boy, is no back number either. He did me a big favour in The Skybet at surprisingly decent odds, though he just seemed to find the hike in the weights a step too far next time in The Betbright. He looks the type though to be given another chance, and I’d be surprised if that win at Doncaster is as good as he is.

Kerry Lee has had a well documented fine season, and she has Bishops Road & Mountainous entered. Both have revelled in the mud this season with big race wins to their names, though could find conditions against them here, especially Mountainous, who’s not that well treated anyway. I wouldn’t be as quick to rule out Bishops Road, especially with a course win to his name this year. We never got a chance to see how he’d fare on the quicker surface, with his early exit in The Topham, and though, like Mountainous, he looks to prefer it soft, I don’t think he’s totally reliant on it, and I’d give him an outside chance here, despite being high enough in the weights now.

As well as those already mentioned, there’s a few others coming here, having taken in the recent “Nationals”. Le Reve & Saint Are both took in Aintree, with Saint Are leading the field for a good while. He eventually faded, with the ground seemingly against him. He was an impressive winner at Doncaster the time before, and only given a 4lb hike for that. I didn’t give Le Reve much of a chance at Aintree in that going, but he ran very well for a long way, and back round here, he’s dangerous to dismiss. Both have a definite chance here, but just depends on how much Aintree has taken out of them. At Ayr, Highland Lodge was a big disappointment, eventually pulling up, but there was a much better run from 2014 Grand National winner, Pineau De Re. He wouldn’t have got in the first 3, but every chance he’d have sneaked 4th, but for falling close home. Big ask for both these horses to re-appear here quickly, especially the 13yo Pineau, though it has been done in the past.

Dynaste is near the head of the weights, and carrying a big weight round here, over this trip, doesn’t look the most obvious prize for him, especially as he appears to be regressing. His stablemates Katkeau & Amigo are also in there, but Amigo is struggling to get in, and he’s fresh from flopping at Cheltenham last week, while Katkeau hasn’t looked good enough…….so far. He also had a hard race last time in The Midlands National. Pipe got a big run out of Vieux Lion Rouge in The National though, and Top Wood would have went close but for falling in The Scottish National, so maybe unwise to totally write his off. Amigo would love it round here on the quicker going I reckon, but as he’s unlikely to get in, so I’d make Katkeau, with obvious risks attached, the pick of the Pipe trio.

Seventh Sky was also disappointing in the race Amigo took in, and he remains a hard horse to asess, for me anyway. Not sure of his best trip, though he does have a couple of runs which give him a small chance. He’s been highly tried a couple of times, but his overall profile would be enough for me to desert him here, despite the fact that he has the look of a horse who will pop up one day, out of the blue.

The Malcolm Jefferson trained Oscar Rock is also near the head of the weights, as a result of his impressive win at Market Rasen. Never sighted since though, in The Paddy Power & The Ryanair. This might be more like it for him though, and I think he’s worth a shot at this trip. I’m pretty sure the trainer wouldn’t give him an entry here just for the hell of it, and a very interesting contender should he line up. A dry week would make him even more interesting. Gold Futures could also make the trip south, from the Nicky Richards yard, and very much like Oscars Rock, it’s unlikely that he’d make the trip, without having a live chance. Not seen to best effect at Kelso last time, it may just be that he’s another who’ll revel in this spring ground, and he looks worthy of being in the line up.

That’s only about half the field, and there’s plenty more lurking in there, but as I didn’t expect such a number to stand their ground, that’ll do for now.

I’d be very keen on The Young Master then, especially at 14’s, and I’ve just had a good few quid his way.

GL