Welsh National 2015

I think it’s always such a difficult race to try and pinpoint the winner of at this stage, with The Hennessy, and The Becher still to be run, but god loves a trier, so I’ll have an early look. I’m trying not to have a bet until the weights come out, but I just know that by the end of typing this, I’ll have talked myself into something.

After making a mess of this in the build up last year, I got out of jail with Emperors Choice, who was thankfully available at 25’s in the morning, to give me my first winner in this since……well, it had been a while

Emperors Choice, not surprisingly gets an entry again, and after winning at the weekend, and even allowing for the coming hike in the weights, he looks rock solid at 14’s. That was his first run since last year, and no surprise if Venetia has improved him even further in the last year. This race isn’t for every horse, and at least you’ll know he’ll cope with it’s unique demands. As well as Royal Palladium & Saroque, Venetia also has Houblon Des Obeaux, and Rigadin De Beauchene entered. Houblon looks to have The Hennessy as his immediate priority, and regardless of how he goes at the weekend, you could argue that he might be too high in the weights for this, but conversely, he’s a very decent horse, and not beyond the realms of possibility that he could carry a big weight round here, the ability is certainly there, and he’d be sure to get his ground. I think Rigadin is the most appealing from the stable. I must have mentioned about a dozen times on here that he was absolutely hammered, unfairly in my opinion, for a win at Haydock nearly 2 years ago, a race in which he had Emperors Choice back in 2nd. Not surprisingly, it was absolute quagmire that day, it seemed to have taken the stuffing out of him, and with the massive hike he’s barely finished a race since. He did though, run his best race for a while at Cheltenham last time, and now off 127, he’s pleading with me to bet him at 25’s.

The first horse to grab my attention when I seen the entries was Benvolio. The Paul Nicholls trained runner, looked to travel really well in his seasonal debut in The Badger Ales, and I thought he looked as if he’d come on a ton for that. The only thing stopping me having a nibble at the 20’s, is the entry he holds for Aintree next weekend. Looks a winner waiting to happen wherever he goes. Nicholls has a few entered, including Rocky Creek, and Unioniste, who both hold an entry for Aintree as well. I find both of these horses so hard to predict, and although both look weighted to the hilt, they’re both decent animals. Black Thunder, and Hawkes Point both swerve Aintree, and could have this as the main target. Hawkes Point flopped in this last year after finishing runner up in 2013, but he followed this up with a win in The Classic Chase at Warwick, before running well in The Midlands National. He looks on a nice mark of 139, and should Benvolio run well at Aintree, I’d probably make him my #1 from the yard. Black Thunder looks the type to spring up in a big handicap, and after getting found out behind Many Clouds in The Betbright Cup at Cheltenham last year, he didn’t run too badly there behind The Druids Nephew at The Festival. Another who’s got a run under his belt, running at Cheltenham last week, and although well down the field, you’d at least expect to him come on for it.

That race at Cheltenham was won by Sausalito Sunrise, and considering conditions, it was a very impressive performance. Only up 6lbs for that, and assuming it hasn’t taken too much out of him, then he looks the main pick from the Hobbs yard.

Midnight Prayer, winner of The 4 Miler at The Festival last year, looks an interesting entry for Alan King. Not seen since picking up an injury in The Hennessy last year, he’s due out on Saturday. I’ll be keeping a close eye on him should he run at Newbury, as if none the worse for his setback, then the 33’s with Betvic might have a very nice look about it. Win or lose on Saturday, he would probably still be well treated, considering how good I think he is, and I might just take a chance on him now. King also has Annacotty entered, though surely asking a lot of for him to follow up his Paddy Power heroics here. Of more interest from the stable would be 2 notebook horses of mine, Sego Success, and particularly Araldur. Sego ran a cracker round here in October, and I’ve got The Scottish National, or The Classic Chase in mind for him, but his run at Cheltenham last time was a shade disappointing. I’m inclined to wait for Ayr or Warwick for him. Araldur ran very well for a long way at Bangor last time, and very much like Benvolio at Wincantion, looked as if his seasonal debut would get him spot on for next time. Arguably not good enough for a prize like this, nonethless, for a horse who’s better known as a hurdler, he looks as if he might have a few pounds up his cuff over fences.

As an avid JP McManus follower, and despite him having tasted success in this before, I don’t immediately sway towards his runners in this, but this year, Wyck Hill looks a live one. 2014 Eider winner, with stamina assured, he’s been dropped 6lbs for falling in this years Eider, and pulling up at Aintree. The 33’s looks massive. JP also has Upswing, who can’t possibly be ruled out after his 2nd behind Sausalito last time, and a bold show could be in the offing, for a horse who’s clearly going in the right direction. His Heathfield is near the head of the market, and deservedly so, but I really think he’d be ideal for The Paddy Power Chase at Leapordstown, also over Christmas.

As well as Heathfield, there’s a few others entered from across The Irish Sea, but this is a race where not too many make that particular trip, so always very risky from an Ante-Post stance. I’ll have a proper look at any Irish Raider, once it becomes clear they’re making the trip. One who’ll surely take his chance though is Glenquest. So nearly victorious in this last year, getting caught near the end, you’d think they’ll be out for revenge this year, and may hold on to him just a bit longer. 4lbs higher than last year, and a 12yo now, but I’d be surprised if he doesn’t go here, and the 25’s isn’t too harsh.

It’s been a long time since 2013 winner Mountainous done much, but could be that that race took it’s toll. He’ll come here 5lb lower than then, and with Kerry Lee no doubt well aware what it takes to land this race, then off the back of a very encouraging run at Sandown last time, at 25’s, he looks a safe antepost bet, with him surely certain to head line up.

Cogry heads the market, and though I’m a bit surprised at that, he did have a respectable return behind Sausalito last time, and nothing wrong with his run in The 4 Miler at The Festival either. I’d love to see his stablemate, my old friend Tour Des Champs get on the comeback trail here. Missed last season, but has a 4th in The Scottish National under his belt as well as placing in the “Racing Post Chase”, before an excellent 5th behind Holywell at Cheltenham. He’s been given a proper chance off 126, and it may be my heart ruling my head, but I can really make, fitness taken on trust, a case for him, and that 40’s is a ridiculous price. I’ll conveniently forget his run in this 2 years ago though, with my money on him. Just behind Cogry at Cheltenham last time was Shotgun Paddy, and he also finds himself near the head of the market, though he has plenty of poor runs to forgive, not least in this last year, after blundering early. That Cheltenham run was a step in the right direction though, but even taking his win in The Classic Chase at Warwick nearly 2 years ago, I’m still inclined to think he’s underpriced.

There’s 71 still in contention for this, so that’ll do it for now, and I’ll no doubt pluck something else out, but for the meantime, Benvolio, Midnight Prayer, Mountainous, and Rigadin De Beauchene head the shortlist.

GL