Scottish National 2015

Well, for those who’ve not had their fill of Marathon Races after Aintree, then The Scottish National is next up at Ayr this weekend.

I’m 10 minutes from the course at the moment, which is currently described as Good to Soft. Currently light rain, but with a fairly strong wind. Forecast is for rain Tuesday and Wednesday, with it to be Sunny the rest of the week. I’ll take a chance it’ll still be Good to Soft on the day.

A few of them are double entered with The Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown a week later.

Last years winner, the Peter Bowen trained Al Co, is the only entrant who took in Saturdays Grand National, where he unseated at the first. It’s difficult to know how much that took out of him, as he ran on for a full circuit, but the fact he remains entered up here, speaks volumes, and he’s got to be taken seriously. He’ll only be running 5lb higher here than last year, and from a trainer who’s runners at Ayr have always to be respected, then the 16’s generally available about him looks very fair. He’s joined by his stablemates, Velator, and Edmund Kean. Velator found only the very impressive winner, Samingarry, too good for him in a very competitive handicap at Chepstow on Easter Monday, and he’s unchanged for that victory. Seems in good form, but he may just be short of what’s required here, and may struggle to make the line up anyway. Edmund Kean, however, is of more interest. Despite going off at 25’s, he was mentioned favourably by plenty of pundits in the lead up last year, and the trainer also holds him in very high regard. He ran well for a long way last year, before eventually pulling up. He took a while to get going this year, pulling up in The Welsh National (talked up by the trainer beforehand), and in desperate conditions at Ffos Las. His last run at Stratford was more encouraging though, just failing to get to the winner in the dying strides, and he looked as if he was worth another go up in trip. Admittedly this wasn’t the same kind of line-up as he’ll face here, but having travelled for a long way last year, and the fact that he’ll be coming here 7lbs lower, makes him very appealing at 33’s, and I’ll definitely be considering him for Each Way purposes. Not discounting Al Co by any stretch, but I’d just favour Edmund Kean of his trio. Can only hope I don’t have a repeat of last year, where my second string in the race was Bowens Pure Faith, having made a point of having one of his runners.

Just behind Al Co last year, in third, was my main fancy for last years running, Trustan Times. He gave me a decent returns for my 25’s, off the back of a great ride. However, these winnings were sadly given back with a bet for Aintree this year, only to see him fail to get an entry. That would suggest to me that a repeat bid here, has always been the plan, but he doesn’t make quite as much appeal this time around at 16’s. I was very keen on him last year, but he’s not coming into this in any way near the same kind of form. His only run of note this season, was in The Royland Meyrick at Wetherby, when he was absolutely cantering when unseating down the back. Not discounted then off that run, and he might get a saver on him, with him potentially being laid out for this, and he’ll also be here 2lbs lower. Still risky though.

Heading the market is the Tony Martin trained Gallant Oscar, who ran the race of his life behind The Druids Nephew at Cheltenham. He was fairly flying at the end, and with The Druids Nephew looking the business before his exit on Saturday, then that form looked as if it was going to be franked. He’s only up 3lbs for that run, and he looks on a handy mark. No surprise to see him up there, and he’s as low as 8’s with Paddy Power. The one drawback is his entry at Sandown, which also applies to his stablemate, Guess Again, who’s very much on my radar. He was absolutely cantering when he was brought down in The Kim Muir, and he looked a sure thing to get involved. Debatable as to whether or not he’d have beaten The Package, who was spot on that day, but the way he was travelling, suggested he’d figure. He’s been in decent enough form this season, and he makes a lot of appeal at 25’s. I’ve taken a chance that he’ll head here, and took 38’s to 44’s on Betfair. Martin also has Heathfieldin the line up, and he’s been going in the right direction this year, but this would be an altogether different test for him.

Also fighting for favouritism with Gallant Oscar, are Catching On, and Broadway Buffalo. Catching On looks to be all potential, with a couple of wins in weak enough events earlier in the season, though he did shape as if this marathon trip would suit. We didn’t get a chance to see how good he was in The Midlands National, where he was an early casualty. Connections also had Lost Legend originally entered for this, who I thought had a great chance, so I certainly can’t ignore the fact that they prefer this guy, and although he looks short enough for me, considering connections, the bookies are probably right not to be taking any chances. Broadway Buffalo, trained by David Pipe, just missed out on Aintree this year, and he’s been making steady progress. Although it can be hit and miss to use the 4 Miler at The Festival as a guide for this, there’s no getting away from his run behind Cause of Causes in that race this season. Cause of Causes was a very good winner of that, and no disgrace to finish runner up. He looked as if he was primed to run a big race in The Grand National Trial at Haydock, and I reckon he would have easily made the frame, but for falling, which would probably have seen him make the line up at Aintree, where I thought he’d have went very well. I see no reason why he can’t continue his upward curve and he looks to have fully justified being as low as 10’s with Ladbrokes. I’m also a big fan of his stablemate, Amigo, who, after apparently sulking in horrible conditions at Haydock in January, came back to life with a cracking run behind Carruthers at Newbury last month. I’ve always thought of him as a bit of Spring horse, and although this trip could potentially stretch him, based on that run behind Carruthers, and with the prospect of better ground at Ayr, he looks overpriced at 25’s.

The Paul Nicholls pair of Sam Winner, and Benvolio, were high profile withdrawals for The Grand National, being saved for this target. I didn’t fancy Benvolio at all for Aintree, and I still haven’t made my mind up on him for this, I could go either way. He ran a stormer in The Welsh National, just missing out to Emperors Choice, and that put him in the mix for races like this, but his next run at Haydock, where he raced off 6lbs higher was pretty poor. It’s often easy to forgive horses a poor run there on Softer going, but he looked easy beat. Very, very dangerous to write of runners from the yard in races like this, but I’d give the preference to his stablemate. Having been on Sam Winner for a fair old amount in The Gold Cup, he disappointed me just a little, even though he was an outsider, I still expected more of a run for my money, and I was a just a bit concerned at how little he offered, though also quite possible, he couldn’t offer anything to that awesome performance from Coneygree. Still, dismissing that run, his runs earlier in the season offer a lot more hope. He took care of Ma Fillule at Aintree, and he also beat The Druids Nephew, with Saint Are a mile back at Cheltenham. A very decent horse, from a yard who seem to have farmed the big Saturday Races this season, and no surprise to see him bounce back here.

Houblon Des Obeaux also took in The Gold Cup, where he never really figured. Very much like Sam Winner, I’d be willing to forgive him that run, and down in class he’s not easily discounted. His second behind Many Clouds in The Hennessy has an altogether different look to it now, and I thought the 25’s would have disappeared by now. He’s got a big weight to carry, but if the same mood as at Newbury, then he could make a mockery of those odds. As a follower of the stable, I’ve been a wee bit disappointed by Ventia’s runner this year. This might be a strange thing to say for a yard who’ve landed The Caspian Caviar Gold Cup (albeit a shockingly weak renewal), and The Welsh National, but I’ve just felt a few of hers haven’t run up to scratch…….or maybe I’m just pocket talking Rigadin De Beauchene has not been able to capitalise on (finally) being given respite from the handicapper, though it was encouraging to see him finally complete a race, finishing down the field in The Midlands National last time. He’s now below his last winning mark, though that win, in atrocious conditions at Haydock last season, seems just to have lefts it’s mark a little, and he just hasn’t seemed the same horse since, though in fairness he was very harshly handicapped afterwards. He will bounce back, though even off this lower mark, I’ll grit my teeth, and very reluctantly leave him out. I just can’t see her Hada Men figuring here, with this being a fair step up for him. One who’s harder to leave out is Summery Justice. I was very keen on him for this last year, and he didn’t let me down, making the frame at 50’s, though why I didn’t collect off him I’ll never know. He followed up at Sandown finishing just out the frame at 25’s, so the fact he’s still available at 40’s wouldn’t put me off at all. He is admittedly a very sulky performer, and we didn’t get a chance to see what mood he was in when he was an early casualty at Uttoxeter. That run though was off the back of a great run in The Eider, slicing through the field on the final circuit, and had his jumping held out, he would surely have won. I was lucky enough to be on his stablemate Emperors Choice for his win in The Welsh National, but I had more on Summery Justice, only to see him run a stinker, and he was one of the first beaten. In fact he was beaten very early on. Risky then, but with his performances at both Ayr, and Sandown last spring, along with his run in The Eider fresh in the mind, not to mention coming here 4lbs lower this year, then he looks worth an each way punt with the 40’s available at 888sport, with him generally 33’s elsewhere.

In front of Summery Justice in The Eider, was the impressive winner Milborough. As I said, I reckon had his jumping been slicker, then Summery Justice would have won, but jumping’s the name of the game, and no denying Milborough deserved it. Was great to see a smaller yard win a race like that, however, I can see them struggle with the 10lb hike he has to contend with, but could still see him running another big race, but maybe just out of the money. If I can’t find the winner myself then I’d love to see him follow up here. That sentiment also applies to the very popular, and rejuvenated Lie Forrit who I’d also love to see land this. Not for the first time this season, he gave me a good payday when, he (just) landed The National Trial at Haydock. He showed a lot of guts to hold on that day, from Harry The Viking, and regardless of my bet, was chuffed to bits for the horse, who seems to be have been around longer than he actually has. I’m reluctantly leaving him though, as despite being in the form of his life, he has a 9lb rise to contend with, and he’ll be 8lbs higher, than when down the field last year. Happy to be proved wrong though. His previous win, which was at Kelso, was also at the expense of Harry The Viking, and it’s that horse I’m more interested in here. Another few yards at Haydock, and he’d have got there, and he looks more suited to this 4 mile test. He’s rising up the weights rapidly himself, and he may be something of a “nearly” horse having finished runner up yet again, this time to The Last Samuri, at Kelso, but the move to the Sandy Thomson yard looks to have worked wonders for him. It’s easy to forget how promising a Novice he was, promising enough to go off favourite in this, off 143, when with Paul Nicholls. He’s another who looks overpriced at 25’s. His victor last time, The Last Samuri, comes here off a 5lb higher mark, but he’s been one of Donald McCains few success stories this term, proving, bar an unseat, to be very consistent. He’s not for me in this, but looks the type to run a solid enough race.

Near the top of the weights is the Philip Hobbs trained Royal Player. I wrote him off in The Skybet Chase, as he looked way underpriced on what he’d actually achieved, and he was eventually pulled up. I wasn’t going to give him a second look here either, especially as he hasn’t been dropped for that run, but the fact that he’s the only representative from the stable, who’s runners are not to be ignored in this, makes him maybe one to be more wary of than I originally thought.

As well as the aforementioned Tony Martin runners, there’s a few others catching the eye from across The Irish Sea. The Midlands National was won last month, in some style, by Goonyella, with Raz De Maree back in second. Both horses failed to make the cut afterwards for The Grand National, though it does give them an extra week to recover for this. I’ve talked up Goonyella many times before on here, and it was great to see him finally land a big prize, albeit at the expense of Raz De Maree, who I bet that day. If he gets it soft enough, then the 5lb rise shouldn’t be too prohibitive for him here. Raz De Maree was given a peach of a ride by Paul Carberry, and it’s not often I’ve said that recently. He’s another who probably would prefer it soft enough, though it didn’t go unnoticed that connections were happy to let him take his chance on (reportedly) better ground at Aintree. It might just be the case he’s primed to run another big race, regardless of going and very much like Goonyella, he’s not hard to fancy, and at 33’s, he’s definitely too big. I’d still probably favour Goonyella again, as he looks the more straightforward of the 2, with just a bit more potential. Yes Tom came into this race as something of a dark horse last year, and he didn’t disgrace himself either, eventually finishing 9th. He looks another dark horse this time around, and he’s already won at the track, albeit over a shorter trip, this winter, where he immediately went into my notebook for this. He wasn’t out of it either when unseating in The Skybet, and having kept some decent company this season, he’s certainly worth a second look at 25’s. Glenquest was so unlucky at Chepstow, maybe, just maybe, being kicked for home slightly too soon, though I didn’t expect to see him get pegged back. Was a big run for a horse in the veteran stages, and he deserves some compensation for that. He may have got that next time out over hurdles, where he was able to exploit his lower mark, and he may just find himself vulnerable to younger rivals here. Gigginstown aren’t renowned for runners in this, but they have an entry in Rogue Angel. He paid his way for me a few times last year, backing to lay, being such a smooth traveller in his races, but he’s looked a shadow of his former self this season.Man With Van, looks like one of those who’ll run huge races in a race like this, without actually getting his head in front, and I could see him staying in contention for longer than his odds would suggest. Bose Ikard was a horse I had very high hopes for last autumn, but he seems to just have went off the boil a little, and he has to step up here. I’ve not totally given up on him, but I’m hoping I see him at Punchestown rather than here. Should he trap here, then I’ll give him a second look on the day. It’s not often the sole representative from Willie Mullins finds itself way down the handicap in a race like this, but that’s the case with Are Ya Right Chief. Safe to say not the star of the stable, and this might come too soon after his run at Fairyhouse last week. He was never competitive in The Cross Country at Cheltenham either. One who does make much more appeal is the Tom Taaffe trained Heaney. He looked a horse to keep on the right side of early last season, but his run in The Kerry National was too bad too be true, possibly looking amiss. He’s back on track now, and his improved effort in The Munster National, was followed up with a 3rd in the ultra competitive Leapordstown Chase, and he finished just out the frame behind the “on-song” The Package at Cheltenham. He’s sure to make some each way appeal at 25’s. Another horse finishing behind The Package that day, was eventual runner up Bless The Wings. The trip would be a bit of an unknown, but he shaped as if it would suit at Cheltenham, and stable form would be a plus, after their excellent Aintree. There is the chance though that this will come to soon after his run in The Topham.

Another near the head of the market is Indian Castle, from the Ian Williams yard. Never a horse I’ve fully got my head around, but there’s no getting away from his 4th behind The Druids Nephew at Cheltenham. Although he was fairly prolific for Donald McCain, that was easily his best run for a good while, and but for more luck in running could have got even closer. A repeat of that run would put him bang there. Maybe not one to trust entirely, but at 14’s he’s bound to have his fair share of supporters willing to take a chance. Another horse who lost nothing in defeat at The Festival was the Alan King trained, Sego Success, who finished just out of the frame in The 4 miler. He was on an upward curve before that, taking care of the promising If In Doubt at Warwick, and he’s another who’s from one of those yards, who’s runners in this have got be given the utmost respect. He’s impossible to be too negative about, and the 16’s with Corals really stands out, he looks ideal for this.

Talking of yards to be feared in this, then that would certainly apply to Nigel Twiston Davies, who’s landed it 3 times. He’s represented by Benbens, and Cogry this time around. Benbens hasn’t quite stepped up to the mark as much as I’d expected this season, though he’s hardly been disgraced either. Still in contention when unseating in The Becher, and too early to say how he’d have fared when unseating in The Kim Muir. He showed bags of stamina though when just failing to catch Samstown in The Peter Marsh at Haydock, and he, at least, looks to have stamina assured, though there’s just the feeling he’ll always find 1 or 2 too good. Could see him finishing just out the frame. If not for his 6th behind Cause of Causes in The 4 miler, then I wouldn’t have considered Cogry for this, but with his stamina guaranteed, then he’s got the look of something of a dark horse here, and he’s impossible to rule out with any confidence. Had his jumping issues in the past, but very much one with time on his side, and may just be ideally suited to a test like this.

Samstown, who, as mentioned, just held on from Benbens in The Peter Marsh, had a great start to the season, but it may just be that he’s in the handicappers grip now.

Carrigdhoun has come back from a year and a half out injured in decent form, and his second behind Virak at Haydock was encouraging, however, I’m just struggling to see him good enough to actually land this. Nice horse for connections though, and good to see them with a chance of getting there with a horse who should run a solid enough race, he’s certainly shaped in the past as if a stamina test would suit.

Wayward Prince rolled back the years in The Grimthorpe at Doncaster, proving a very popular (even for those who used to back him regulalry ), if not surprising winner. The 11lb rise he got for that though is surely enough to stop him, and he couldn’t follow up next time. He’s always been a horse I liked, and good to see he still retains enough ability. His runner up that day Drop Out Joe, interests me more, and but for a mistake, might just have got closer to the winner. He looked a proper stayer that day, and having kept decent company all season, then he very much makes the shortlist. The 28’s with Skybet looks hard to resist.

Fresh from his victory in The Grand National, Oliver Sherwood will be looking to Global Power for a big race double. He’s threatened to land one of these marathon prizes all season, though I felt he found the 4 miles in the 2013 Midlands National just beyond him. He was well worth the second attempt though in this years race, but he never cleared the first. I’d easily forgive him pulling up over a marathon trip at Ffos Las, run in horrible conditions. He won’t have my cash on him, but he’s not one I’d be in a rush to write off either. The winning owner from Saturday, Trevor Hemmings has just the one entry, in Vintage Star, and I get the feeling he likes a runner in this, as much as at Aintree, so he look sure to take his chance. He flopped big time at Cheltenham, but on past form, he’s not a back number. The run at Cheltenham was bad, but I seriously considered taking a wee bit of the 66’s, and I still am.

Stablemate to Vintage Star, Fill The Power, ran a great race in this 2 years off 130, finishing fifth, and not surprisingly, pulled up off 143 last year. He’s been a bit in and out this season, and the one time I backed him, his jumping wasn’t great, not to mention him running in snatches. As a result of his indifferent form this season, he’s fell to a mark of 127. This would give him a chance of a repeat of his 2013 run, but he looks as if he’ll be touch and go to get in.

Carli King, who’s been in decent form, with a couple of wins to his name over a trip this season, looks to be another with stamina assured, but surely will find a few of these far too good for him. The same goes for recent winner William Money, though there was lots to like about the way he won at Haydock last time.

Time looks to have caught up with Cape Tribulation, who’s looked out of love with the game this season, though on old form, he’s thrown in, down 23lbs in 2 years, and not out of the question he could do a “Wayward Prince”

Bailey Concerto, who ran the race of his life to finish second to If In Doubt in The Skybet, was cruelly denied a run at Aintree, missing out by one, and a repeat of that Doncaster run would give him a squeak. He failed to fire next time out though, and he may be just weighted out of this.

According To Trev always struck me as a “National” type horse, but things haven’t really went to plan. He does has 1 win to his name this term, but that race hasn’t worked out to well since, and he might have too much on his plate here.

Wiesentraum looks too high in the weights for what he’s actually achieved, and I’ll pass him over.

There’s a few more lurking down the bottom of the weights but they must be struggling to make it.

So hard to make a call before the final decs, but the likes of Sego Success, and Broadway Buffalo look to deserve their place near the head of the market.

I’ve taken a chance though, that Guess Again heads here, taking 42’s to 44’s, he looks a winner waiting to happen. I’ve also taken a chance on Edmund Kean at 33’s each way.

I fully expect to follow in with another of outsiders, with Drop Out Joe (28’s), and Summery Justice (40’s) appealing most, though that 66’s about Vintage Star is very appealing too.

GL