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Had tiny ew on him at 50’s a few weeks ago. Looking at his form again [staying on strongly in his races] I’m going to have a proper bet on him [ie more than 50p ew
].And going to add Duke of Lucca to my ever growing long/short list.I haven’t had a penny on one of my long term fancies Night In Milan, so thought I’d better take the 50’s just now, in case of a good run in The Grimthorpe.
The Channel 4 boys gave the predictable verdict that Night In Milan hadn’t done his Grand National chances any harm but I don’t share their optimism.
There were plenty of jumping errors to be seen today and I have the feeling the form may be more Grim, than Thorpe, long term.
Streams Of Whiskey went wrong and with a rank outsider coming home with ease it all looks a bit ropey to me. Theatre Queen’s finishing position after losing so much ground at the start, and then nearly uprooting one of the fences, casts doubt over the form for me.
I saw little that suggests the Grand National trip and meeting higher class horses than today is going to help Night In Milan to get competitive at Aintree and it’s my belief I have done my dough on him. He’s a big outsider that looks about the right price at 50/1 now, whereas I was hoping he was actually going to be a genuine 25/1 shot who was value at the higher price.
I have moved my ticket two places closer to the bin since the race.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Not sure about that. Wayward Prince can be a very very good horse when he’s got the right head screwed on.
Certainly wouldn’t give up yet on NIM. The winner, on anything even resembling his best form, was a handicap cert: it’s just that few, if any knew he’d choose today to bounce back.
NIM gets a bit low at his fences, but that’s unlikely to be a drawback now at Aintree
It’s not just about Wayward Prince bouncing back, which I am highly sceptical about at his age.
If we look at Theatre Queen the race report says:-
“led into start, reluctant to race and lost about 30 lengths, about 5 lengths off group from 5th, blundered 12th, faltered against rails before 4 out, stayed on, went 4th last, never any hope”
For Night In Milan to only finish 7 lengths ahead of a horse who suffered so much attrition in a race, points to me that he’s not going to be involved in the business end of a Grand National. It didn’t even look to me that he’d be suited by the extra distance at Aintree and there was little encouragement that he’s come forward enough, in a race he won last year, from his previous run, with his handicap mark for The National no longer a reason to hide his full light from the assessor.
I am no longer In’ter Milan
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Okay, i think i might have my shortlist complete!
Balthazar King
Duke Of Lucca
Monbeg Dude
Roi Du Mee
SollMy intention is to stick to these 5 if i can! Also depending on whether or not Any Currency gets in, though being at around the 80 mark on the list; i shan’t be holding my breath!
I wouldn’t give up around the 80 mark Peter, I normally guess at around the 77 to 82 mark. There’s 4 out already from the original 98.
Although, I’ve got a right few bet, I’m still hopeful of trading out. My main fancies as of today are……..
Cause of Causes
Alderwood
Night In MilanI have backed Balthazar King for this. He is my favourite horse in training and has won me a lot of money over the past few seasons. He was 2nd last year and has only been raised 3 lbs and hopefully this time will get his preferred better ground. Connections have decided to bypass the Cheltenham Festival to concentrate on this race so must have a great chance of going one better this year.
I was on Wayward Prince at 40/1 doubled up ew with the other Hilary Parrott horse at 80’s pity about the non runner giving me a massive deduction and the fact it was 20p stakes LOL
I wouldn’t be too downcast about Night in Milan ,how many times in the past have we seen a horse run indifferently and then perform differently at Aintree ,the fences i reckon will bring out the best in the horse that and better ground.Night In Milan is a bold enough jumper, but has not been able to win at his beloved Donny in last three starts and seems to be better there than anywhere else. Does not bode well for his chances at Aintree off the same mark. Is an ethusiastic sort too, so whether he’ll stay the extra distance has to be a concern.
Value Is EverythingAlthough, I’ve got a right few bet, I’m still hopeful of trading out. My main fancies as of today are……..
Cause of Causes
AlderwoodAlderwood!
Why VTC?
Value Is EverythingRoi du Mee skips Cheltenham but will have another race in Ireland prior to Aintree. Still hoping it’s the National he’s being aimed at. Getting worried that I haven’t backed Soll for a place. I did back him when he ran before which is what put me off this time.
Just off the back of his run in The Kerry National GT, and he went in the notebook that day with a race like this in mind. I thought he looked as if he wasn’t stopping at the end, and despite being obviously known more as a 2, 2 and a half miler, with the trip not phasing him that day, I’m happy to take a chance.
It’s obviously not going to be a vintage renewal, it’s the poorest entry in years, and he’s certainly a better horse than a lot of the entries.
They’ve been messing about with him this year, but as a result he’s came down a few pounds……..though I’m sure it’s with other prizes in mind, rather than Aintree, and I could fancy him just as much for The Grand Annual, or The Coral Cup.
Probably convincing myself because of the prices I got, I have to recognise that.
Withdrawals at today’s Forfeit Stage
Rajdhani Express
Back In Focus
Poole Master
My Murphy
Sunnyhill Boy
Burton Port
Kruzhlinin
Green Flag
Loch Ba
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