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Well of my original list of ten; Long Run and Medermit were ruled out and Alfie Spinner, Cape Tribulation and Harry Topper all lack an entry. Very surprised at Alfie Spinner and Cape Tribulation not getting entries, but that leaves me with five…
Any Currency – Would be very lucky to get in off 132
Balthazar King – Might be a tad high in the weights, but always runs his race
Duke Of Lucca – Does he really stay? That’s my biggest fear…
Monbeg Dude – Perhaps my best chance. Ran well last year and is as consistent as ever
Roi Du Me – A dark horse who could maybe do with a drop of a pound or two…Beaming with confidence
Very interested in Ely Brown but don’t know much about him; hasn’t had much recent racing but is that to keep his OR down? Nice stout staying pedigree on the damside.
Been chipping away at Ely Brown since the autumn moe. Had him earmarked as a National horse last season. Had a bug at start of season which interrupted his prep. Really nice horse, but I was a bit disappointed with him the other day, and he’ll have to step up from that…….fingers crossed.
Seems a real chance though that’s he’s not returned the same horse.
My three are still in there:-
Rocky Creek, Night In Milan and Many Clouds.
I am doubtful that Many Clouds will take his chance. Perhaps if he was obviously outpaced in The Gold Cup it might be a consideration. I suppose the weight he gets will be another factor. If he runs and wins, or does really well in the Gold Cup it will probably mean that this year’s weight will be the best he ever gets allotted in a National, assuming they ever go there with him.
Rocky Creek ran a mighty race in 5th last year, looking a potential winner until tiring late on. He ran a thoroughly respectable second to Lexus winner Road To Riches first time up, when it was well advertised to the owner that he wasn’t fit. Rocky needs to shake off an abominable run in The Hennessey, where he never travelled a yard and looked utterly lifeless. Paul Nicholls described it as an "off day" and put it down to the ground at the time. His absence since suggests something else might have been the problem and he’s become a frustrating sort beset by niggling problems it seems. The Grand National is his main target for the year but I am going to need to see something positive from the horse soon to give any hope.
Night In Milan is my dark horse and he seems to be on the track I expected him to follow building up to Aintree. He’s a low profile sort of horse who many people probably don’t know much about but that hasn’t stopped some of the recent winners of the race. You couldn’t make a cast iron case for him by any means but at 50/1 I thought he was worth an early shout, because we know that when the tapes go up in April there will be horses sitting at 7/1, 8/1 and 9/1 in a 40 runner handicap
and that is something to be a bit "Crabbie" about for sure 
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Court By Surprise needs a second look. Jumps, stays, been ridden by the best jockeys.
One note of caution would be his spring form.
Teaforthree
won a hunter chase today, it wasn’t up to his best form – but over such an inadequate trip got to be seen as very promising. 25/1 worth taking imo.
Value Is EverythingQuality wise looks like a Grand National entry of old ,shame that Houblon isn’t entered i think they might of missed a trick looking at the list.
A good win for Soll today should see him get a chance of making the cut, hopefully. He didn’t look like the easiest ride, but finished like further would suit. Beat some good sorts who also hold National entries to boot, so one might find a place for him in the shortlist
Sacre Bleu, Paddy Power have Shutthefrontdoor at 10/1 for The Grand National.
The horse has just been announced as missing his intended run in The Gold Cup, which you wouldn’t think was an ideal scenario. 10/1 before the weights are even published is just crazy in my opinion. The horse was twice that price short ago and has done nothing other than miss a race he should have been running in.
Crepe Suzettes
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I’m hoping Saint Are gets a high enough hike in the weights to get into the race and I can get a first 5 bet with Paddy Power [are they doing ‘first 5’ yet?]
- Total Posts 102
Im with Steeplechasing on the issue of how they’ve changed the National and what now looks the ideal requirements..since the PR disaster of Sychronised and the changes that followed 7 out of the 8 horses in the 1st 4 of each race have beforehand won at 3 miles 3 1/2 or more.. i think that its not a case of staying all day long instead of a real jumping test… si id be lloing for a 10yo or over who fits the bill.. and having his 1st crack at it..
Sacre Bleu, Paddy Power have Shutthefrontdoor at 10/1 for The Grand National.
The horse has just been announced as missing his intended run in The Gold Cup, which you wouldn’t think was an ideal scenario. 10/1 before the weights are even published is just crazy in my opinion. The horse was twice that price short ago and has done nothing other than miss a race he should have been running in.
Crepe Suzettes
Shutthefrontdoor still has improvement in him and deserves to be one of the favourites. However, current plunge in to 12/1 tops is more about arbers back to lay policy. Shutthefrontdoor looks very much the probable mount of AP McCoy. With looming retirement his mount is likely to go off ridiculously short, 5/1? Possibly shorter. Bound to be quite a bit bigger than that on Betfair, still expect single figures. So can understand arbers positioning themselves.
Value Is EverythingSacre Bleu, Paddy Power have Shutthefrontdoor at 10/1 for The Grand National.
The horse has just been announced as missing his intended run in The Gold Cup, which you wouldn’t think was an ideal scenario. 10/1 before the weights are even published is just crazy in my opinion. The horse was twice that price short ago and has done nothing other than miss a race he should have been running in.
Crepe Suzettes
Shutthefrontdoor still has improvement in him and deserves to be one of the favourites. However, current plunge in to 12/1 tops is more about arbers back to lay policy. Shutthefrontdoor looks very much the probable mount of AP McCoy. With looming retirement his mount is likely to go off ridiculously short, 5/1? Possibly shorter. Bound to be quite a bit bigger than that on Betfair, still expect single figures. So can understand arbers positioning themselves.
There’s still some 14’s left and I take your point that he’ll be popular on the day. He’s an Irish National winner, so his credentials are obvious enough and the AP story will probably have built to Hans Christian Andersen proportions by the time the once a year punters are wiring in 50p ew at 4/1, but I won’t be touching him with the proverbial barge pole.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Any thoughts on Carlingford Lough?
Quite keen on him for this, don’t think hes quite good enough to win a Gold Cup but the worry would be the weight he is likely to get sure he was quite high last year ….
Teaforthree won a hunter chase today, it wasn’t up to his best form – but over such an inadequate trip got to be seen as very promising. 25/1 worth taking imo.
Very poor effort from Teaforthree today though. He finished behind a horse rated 37 lbs lower in 4th, with a couple of old cuddys ahead as well.
At Fisher’s Cross was a big disappointment for the stable as well today but he’s had his problems of late and I don’t think you could put it down to stable form, as they had 7 winners last months and 3 this month, operating at 28% and 27% strike rates respectively.
Pushed out by several firms to 33/1 for Aintree now, he just doesn’t appeal to me.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
An entirely predictable defeat today for Teaforthree*. It is a very tough ask of these ex-rules old-timers to get two top two finishes in the bank on bad ground in Jan/Feb, leaving enough time and effort for an assault on the Foxhunters itself in March.
I never backed Teaforthree at his peak in the Grand National and won’t do it this year either. If you do fancy him, I wouldn’t be too downhearted as this run probably came too soon after his win at Bangor.
*see win, e/w, lay thread
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