Thyestes Chase 2014

Used to be a considered a big pointer for The Grand National, but maybe not as hotly anticipated as it used to be. Heard it described on ATR today as “the race that stops a county”. I liked that Still a race I look forward to anyway, and part of a great few days racing towards the end of the week.

Hedgehunter, and Numbersixvalverde both landed this the season before winning at Aintree, though in the last few seasons there’s been no immediate clues for The National. In the last 20 years, half a dozen of them have landed this before attempting The Grand National double, but without success.

Los Amigos heads the market, and it’s not that difficult to see why, with his limited appearances over the larger obstacles being very impressive. He returned to hurdles last time, and got his head in front. He’s also from a top stable, and despite his relative inexperience, you can be sure the trainers got him ready for this. At first glance his odds look a bit cramped, however, the form of a lot of his races is working out well, and there’s surely more to come.

Another race where the Willie Mullins pair, On His Own, and Vesper Bell get an entry. Both horses are getting increasingly frustrating. Vesper Bell fell for the 2nd race in a row at Warwick last weekend, though in fairness, he was travelling well at the time. He looked as if he was an improving horse before these mishaps though, and although he comes with risks attached, I think if he stands up, he runs a big race. On His Own has ran poorly on more than one occasion since landing a hurdle last February. Won’t do his mark for Aintree any harm, which is probably the main aim, though they don’t want him going down the weights too much, or he might not get in. Bearing that in mind, no surprise to see him land a place here, without getting knocked about, to stay on a handy mark. If Aintree isn’t the aim, then his chances in this would have to be re-assessed. Both, on the face of it, just a little short in the market for me.

As well as On His Own, Graham Wylie also has Prince De Beauchene entered. From another thread, but it could apply just as easily here….. He’s been running poorly in lofty company of late, but I just get the impression they’re being careful with him, and he’s now 6lbs lower than he was less than a year ago. I think he’s way better than what he’s been showing recently, and suspect he might just be very well handicapped. The obvious target would be The Grand National, but given his record of staying sound long enough to make it there, they might just want to strike while the irons hot, and, wouldn’t surprise me if he just went and landed this off top weight….He has though, an entry in The Leapordstown Handicap on Saturday to muddy the waters…..He’s 25’s for both races.

Mullins has another 3 entered in Uncle Junior, Cadspeed, and Balnaslow. Uncle Junior is a strange one, 14 of his last 15 races have been in Cross Country Chases, so this may not be his cup of tea. His only run out of the Cross Country sphere, was in last seasons Paddy Power Chase, where he finished down the field. Getting on now at 13, but he did run well at Cheltenham in November, so clearly still got it, but would still be some feat to land this. This doesn’t look the most suitable race for Cadspeed either, as he’s been running around 2 miles of late, and he pulled up behind Turban as recently as Sunday, so he’d have to be a doubt. Balnaslow looks to be the most interesting of the Mullins team. Still a Novice, he’s been running over 2, 2 and a half miles of late in hot company, and can easily be excused defeats in those races. With a marked step up in trip, he looks worth considering off the back of his victory in a Beginners Chase over 2 miles 6 at Thurles in October, where he had the equally promising Hunting Party behind him.

Balnaslow is owned by Gigginstown House Stud, and no real surprise to see a few others entered for them, with Quito De La Roque, Make A Track, Sweeney Tunes, Ipsos Du Berlais, Romanesco, Panther Claw, and Carry Each Other joining him. Quito De La Roque surely won’t go, and the same could be said for the very unpredictable Ipsos Du Berlais, who ran (poorly) as recently as Saturday. I had high hopes for both those horses, and it’s not worked out at all. The same could be said for Romanesco, who I thought had a big season ahead of him, but he’s been bitterly disappointing. Ran a cracker in The Kim Muir last season, and not out of it, when falling in The Irish National. I fully expected him to continue in the same vein, but he’s been well down the field in all 3 tries this season. He’s dropped a few pounds as a result though, but that may be clutching at straws, and he looks an unlikely winner for the meantime. Carry Each Other ran his best race for a while last time, but he looks set to run from well out of the handicap, and he just doesn’t look good enough. Although near the head of the weights, Make A Track gives some appeal. He found things happening too quickly for him last time over 2 miles 2, in a very decent contest, and this return to 3 miles plus is very much in his favour. Plenty of encouragement to take looking at his past, and he could be a viable each way proposition at 16’s. Sweeney Tunes is a standing dish in these types of races, and always tends to find a few too good, but his fourth in The Irish National, and a not far away sixth in The Paddy Power gives him too, a decent each way squeak. Finally Panther Claw, who was third in this last year. My idea of a dark horse for The Grand National this season, things haven’t went to plan, and he looks unlikely to be high enough in the weights now, he’d have to land this in style to get in at Aintree. He’s not had any real shockers this season, though I’d like to have seen him closer in The Paddy Power. I’ve bet him for The National, but I’d have to pin my hopes on him winning this to secure a nice mark for Aintree, being a long term plan for connections. I’m not convinced.

The usual bumper crop of Giggs entries then, and in these races there’s the added problem that there’s always a whole raft of JP McManus entries to wade through as well…………but not this time, he’s got one, just the one After an outstanding 2011/2012 season, Groody Hill disappeared after his good run came to halt in that seasons Irish National, when pulling up. Off the back of his layoff he’s been dropped 7lbs, and is 3lbs below his excellent third behind Cross Appeal in The Paddy Power. Quiet little comeback run over hurdles at Christmas, say no more.

Hunting Party is another who also holds an entry in The Leapordstown Handicap Chase on Saturday. Difficult to consider him until knowing where he’s heading, but he’s worth a look for this. Didn’t have a chance to impress in The Paddy Power, falling at the first. He’s better than that, and I fully expect him to continue his early season form, where he looked very progressive in Beginners Chases.

Cootamundra was a very impressive winner of The Troytown, just edging out the very decent Mad Brian. The 10lb rise for that should hinder him obviously, and that may have been his day anyway, but still, very difficult to take any negatives from that run, against a very competitive line up, and shows a big field test like this won’t phase him.

Also running a big race that day was Living Next Door, who was in the process of picking them off, and looking nailed on for a place, when he came down at the last. Ran only adequately next time over hurdles, but it may just be this Tony Martin inmate finds this type of test more to his liking. Martin also has Wrong Turn entered in the same ownership. Likely to be way out of the weights, and he clearly has jumping issues, he’s fallen twice in his last 4 runs, though in fairness he won the other 2, but still, looks up against it here.

Lookoutnow, and Playing have been very popular in the betting over the last couple of days. Lookoutnow looks to have been campaigned with a big prize in mind, with a couple of hurdles runs thrown in, and this hasn’t went unnoticed, he gets in here on a nice weight, and I’d expect him to be continually punted in the next 48 hours. Playing is more difficult to assess. He’s not getting any younger as an 11 year old, and hasn’t set the heather alight in the past, but his 2 wins in quick succession around the turn of the year are hard to ignore, and his win last time was with a bit to spare. Doesn’t look as if the step up in trip should bother him either.

Rich Revival looked a horse going places last season, but his fine run came to a halt in The Irish National, and The Paddy Power, pulling up in both. He’s probably got more races in him, but may have to come down a few more pounds.

Thelobstercatcher is bang on form, and he’s won 2 on the bounce, though still not enough to get him near the handicap proper for this. Although up against on that basis, the trip and the going will not phase him, as it’s his bread and butter, and he remains feasible. Castle Wings makes the same kind of appeal. Like Thelobstercatcher, in fine form, though whether or not he’ll be as at home in this slog remains an unkown.

Tarquinius was a fine second in this last year, as part of a good overall season, and he carried a few quid of mine at Aintree, where he ran a very solid race. This season has been poor though, and he’s passed over for now. Behind Tarquinius in 4th last year was Sole Witness. He’s a horse I’ve got a soft spot for, and have bet him on many occasions, and he’s got the ability to pop up now and again, like when he landed a chase at Navan just over a year ago, off only a pound above his current mark. He’s also 6lbs below his mark in this last year. He’s had jumping issues in the past, but has looked much improved…….he’s credited with falling last time, but he was basically bumped over. Could be a lively outsider at 40’s.

Finally another old friend, Caduceus. He’s won me a few quid in the past, and he’s a bit of a monkey, but on his day, he’s got ability. Finally back down to his last winning mark…..it’s taken a while . A quick look at his form this year is a bit uninspiring, reading FP6, but it requires a second look. He was absolutely cantering when he came down a few fences from home at Galway on his re-apperance, and I’m of the opinion he’d have been in the first 2 for sure. he was then pulled up early next time out at Cork, but that was after being brought to a standstill by a faller. His 6th behind Thelobstercatcher last time was an eyecatching run, moving though the field to go second a couple of fences home, but he didn’t the see 3 mile 5 trip out and he weakened near the end. This step back in trip should suit, and I think he’s ready to run a big race. Though it wouldn’t be the first time he’s let me down

Should be a real test as ever. I’ll side with Groody Hill as my main bet at a very fair 16’s, and Caduceus and Sole Witness look to have each way appeal at 25’s and 40’s.

GL