Grand Sefton 2014

Not as competitive as The Becher Chase, but as it’s a race over the big fences, it’s one I look forward too……..and unlike The Becher, one I’ve had a wee bit of success with.

My long term fancy for it was last years winner Rebel Rebellion, but the presence of his stablemate, the admittedly classier Rolling Aces, muddies the waters somewhat. Rebel won this nicely last year, and until his recent 4th in a competitive race at Chepstow, he had been relatively low key. That spin round at Chepstow should have spot on for this, and there’s surely the chance that this has been the long term target. Rolling Aces is one of those horses, though not top drawer, seems to have bags of potential, and I wouldn’t be dismissing him for any races of this type! Both available at 8’s, I’d sway towards Rebel at this stage, as he looks the more obvious to line up, but clearly both deserve their spot at the head of the market.

However, after planning to bet Rebel Rebellion for some time, I’ve deserted him (we know how this ends) and went for the outsider of the field in Too Cool To Fool. I like to keep an eye on trainers who seem to target certain races, and although more prolific on the level, Jim Goldie has managed to bag this race twice with outsiders. Not betting him blind though. I was at Ayr a few weeks ago when he had a welcome return to form, and got a fair price on him at the course, and got some decent place money. He travelled really well that day, and I immediately hoped they would target this race for him……..was very happy to see his name on the list. Took 65’s and 70’s on Betfair, as well as few quid each way at the 66’s.

I think I was the only person to be really impressed by Hunt Ball last season. He’s got a rather tame run at Ascot last time over hurdles to overcome, but with Hendersons runners under a cloud at the moment, that may be of more concern anyway. His run in The Ryanair was very impressive, just out the money, and in cruising up to the leaders as close as the 28th in The National, he answered a few questions regarding his stamina. I’m fairly sure, based on that, he’s got a decent prize in him this season. Which one though?

Persian Snow, as low as 12’s, was fancied by many to run a big race in The Paddy Power, but he finished well beaten. He’s a difficult one to work out. As bad as he was that day, he did chase home Johns Spirit on his previous run, so that can’t be ignored either. I’m happy to leave him alone for this, based on what he’s achieved overall, however not so comfortable that he’s from the Hobbs Yard, who’ve not had the worst start to the season.

I don’t think the McCain yard look to be hitting the heights they have been in previous seasons, so I’ll be passing over Witness In Court. The yard clearly love to have a winner over these fences, but I didn’t see enough from him last year to enter him into the equation. The yard also have Kruzhlinin, who’s also got an engagement in The Becher. Although I didn’t particularly enthuse about him for The Becher, that looks a more suitable target than this, as the longer trip might play more to his strengths. 2 runners from the McCain yard, and I’m not considering either………this won’t end well.

Another passed over by myself in The Becher is Dolatulo. Think he falls short of what’s required for that target, this at least looks more suitable. The Greatrex yard appear to be in good form, but Dolatulo’s overall form is just a bit too patchy for me, with more bad runs than good. His last run wasn’t without promise though. He finished 2nd in a competitive enough handicap, behind the Paul Nicholls trained Sound Investment, however he was, in the end, beaten comfortably. Just too much to do on the face of it, though if he were mine, I’d definitely take this route, rather than The Becher.

I had a small go on Tahiti Pearl in The Topham last year, and although never really landing a blow, I’m not in a rush to write him off either. He also seems rather out of form, but Sue Smith is clearly dangerous to ignore round here, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him bounce back to form, and get competitive at 33’s

As usual I can’t overlook a runner from Venetia Williams, and she’s got The Topham runner up, Bennys Mist in the race. He’s got a mixed record round here, and although Ma Filleule had a disappointing run on her debut this season, I think in time, finishing runner up to her in a competitive race like The Topham will read very well. He probably found the trip beyond him at Wincanton, very much like in The Becher last year, and back over this trip, he looks very dangerous………..and value, at 16’s. He’s got a couple of poor runs this year at Cheltenham to overcome, but I’ve yet to be convinced that that’s his track, and from a trainer who’s always dangerous to ignore, with her being in form, it makes him even more appealing!

As I said on The Becher Chase thread, Cedre Bleu has his own ideas, but having been decent “back in the day” there’s always the worry you concentrate too much on his “quirks”, and overlook how well he’s potentially treated. He’s need to be kidded round no doubt, but this trip might be more suitable than The Becher, and although he finished midfield, he did jump round ok in The Topham. Not for me at all, but could maybe appeal to some at 20’s, especially off his current mark.

Also at a price is Orpheus Valley, who’s available at 40’s. Not hard to see why, looking at current form, but it’s also hard to forget his victory at The Punchestown Festival in the spring. I’ll be giving him a second look come the day.

I thought Champion Court ran his best race for a while in The Paddy Power, and if he can keep that enthusiasm going here, then the respite from the handicapper is going to pay off at some point. I’d be wiling to forgive Festive Affair his seasonal debut, as Jonjos runners have not been “ready”. This guy, however, ran a lot better than his 9th place would suggest in the race won by Present View at The Festival, and he looks interesting at 25’s

Too Cool To Fool for me then, with Bennys Mist to chase him home.

Might add another from the above list as well.

Good luck