Grand National 2014

Looking at the horses for the millionth time and Across the Bay has [thus far] come out on top of my scoring. Except I have a little note at the side saying ‘needs to dominate; small fields only’. The other one [thus far] is Alvarado [ ] who I dismissed as I was convinced he wouldn’t run. He will either run the race of his life or spit the dummy out; if it’s the former [after my disaster with not having the Fergal O’Brien accumulator on what became ‘Fergal O’Brien day’ last autumn] seeing him win would tip me over the edge and I’ll end up as bonkers as him. For someone that gets as I do it’s good to read Gingers analysis.

It is good that Ginger spares the time but surely the degree of merit can only be properly judged around 4.25 on Saturday? Chances are if the you write about enough horses, you will get some right, some wrong.

"Enough horses", I’ve wrote about all the horses Stilvi.

All I’ve done so far in that post is the analysis, pros and cons of

all

runners. As last year – whether any horse is an actual selection will depend on what chance I’ll give each horse and what price I can get. Will add a 100% book once final decs come through and likely ground conditions are known. Highlighting those at good enough prices to be selections. Though you’ll probably be able to guess one or two already.

Some punters might look through the same analysis and come to different value selections. Although I’ve given my opinion I’ve deliberately left the conclusion to another day so people can use it to form their own personal selections.

Had I not done an in depth analysis last year am sure would not have backed Aurora’s Encore and probably not Neptune Collonges in 2012 either.

list up to date, please give me chance to get online and do the updates, sometimes, ive had to just do a quick update , and missed numbers out, but left the important ones in ie top 40 runners, thanks

vf

Yes even better than I thought Ginge. I thought you’d copied and pasted it from somewhere

Tidal Bay, Monbeg Dude and Long Run are my primary hopes. Reverse tricast perhaps?

Balthazar King, Battle Group, Quito De La Roque and Golan Way fill out the outsider selections

Thanks for all of your kind words.

Am glad it will come in handy for some.

very interesting write up’s and those that spend time to do these things especially on races like the grand national with huge number of runners deserves credit

so my big question who you backing? lol

vf

Hi vf,
To answer your question:
My first Grand National bet was Teaforthree @ 25/1 on 13th April last year. I think he’s still value and will start around 7/1. Although if anyone hasn’t backed him yet I’d wait, because some bookmakers will want the publicity of at least 10/1 the field on the day.

Got a place only saver bet on Teaforthree @ 3/1.

Also got 25/1 Monbeg Dude, didn’t particularly think he was a good price, just going to arb out with the public/good story, Princess Zara money shortening him up.

Had an NRFB bet on my thread on Godsmejudge, I personally had a normal ante-post bet but laid it back later at a very small loss.

Cape Tribulation another small loss ante-post.

And Balthazar King @ 33/1

Will probably have a few more bets before too long, but Saturday’s ground could be anything from soft through to good. So want to know more.

that’s good to know I also have Balthazar king, teaforthree and monbeg dude

im debating rocky creek and double seven (that one due to McCoy)

vf

I’d fallen in love with Big Shu and then Ch4 have to do a feature on him and I’m now besotted. Which means I’ll be a complete wreck on Saturday. Just going to top up the multitude of bets I’ve already had with Alvarado who I didn’t back because I was convinced he wouldn’t run. Too many coincidences with this horse one of them being chatting to the lad that rides him every day and then realising he’s an ex Howard Johnson horses