Grand National 2014

I’ve only had a nibble at 25s on burton port. I like to go into the national with a 2 prong attack (attack being the wrong word as although I enjoy the national I don’t bet big on this race). Now to find my other candidate. What do people think of Balthazar king and Big Shu chances? I like them for the fact we know they will stay and jump all day..

I backed Teaforthree last year and he put in a wonderful round of jumping. A fantastic effort.

However, he hasn’t won in two years and on three notable occasions been headed at the last fence – the 2012 (in 2013) Welsh National, 2013 Grand National and more recently at Ascot.

There is nothing wrong with his honesty, but it just seems that in these gruelling, competitive handicaps, Teaforthree finds one with a touch more class who is stronger at the business end.

I think he will once again make the frame, but there are a fair few with equally strong place claims at much more attractive odds and three out of the last five winners have returned 33/1, 66/1 and 100/1.

I find it almost impossible to construct a strong case for any horse given the unique nature of the event, but

Rocky Creek

, Prince De Beauchene and Tidal Bay will carry my cash.

Mountainous would have a serious chance on soft ground, and wouldn’t it be a wonderful story – and typical of the race – if Jamie Moore were to win?

Shock, horror, gasp….someone else is going for Rocky Creek!

I thought I was the Lone Ranger with regards to him.

I am not enthused about soft ground for him, as he seemed to tire behind the Giant Bolster when a short priced favourite to beat the perennial Gold Cup performer on heavy ground. However, I can’t think helping that at around 3m 2f to 3m 4f on decent ground he would show Tea For Three a clean pair of heels.

Finalised my usual three pronged attack last night…

Burton Port
The Rainbow Hunter
Quito De La Roque

If the last couple of years are anything to go by one of these will be second!

My concern about Rocky Creek is his rather abject run in the Mildmay last year on ground that should’ve suited – yes Dynaste was very good that day and since has become a true grade one horse but it begs the question whether the course suits. His Hennessy second is sound form however and if you can forgive that run he has a fair chance.

That’s a very fair assessment Rich.

I had a sneaky tenner on Tidal Bay at a pony on the day the weights came out. Partly because he is undoubtedly well weighted, partly because I knew he’d shorten quite quickly (at that amount it’s not worth laying any off) but mainly due to sentiment because I’d love to see him win.

That said, I just can’t quite see him doing it – will he get too far back ?, will age finally catch up ?

Looking elsewhere, I had a bit of a nibble at bigger prices on Teaforthree but again I can see him finishing placed but not quite getting up. Can’t forget how he looked legless after jumping the last in 2013 but having watched the race back a number of times, what also sticks out is he ran on again once Cappa Bleu came upsides near the line. Unarguably a very genuine horse.

I may throw a few small darts at one or two from Big Shu, Alvarado and Mountainous at bigger prices but fivers and tenners only – no more.

So back to Rocky Creek. The Aintree run from last year worries me ever so slightly but at that point of his career it didn’t appear that good ground suited him and with Aintree being a quick track and up against an in-form Dynaste (who looked back to his Feltham best), it wasn’t that much of a surprise to seem him short of speed at the business end.

but then off the track for a while he carried my cash and ran an absolute belter on ground previously thought quicker than ideal against a race fit Triolo D’Alene in the Hennessy.

He’s always looked like a horse in need of a trip but his runs to date have proved he isn’t slow and I loved the way he was up with the pace throughout and still stayed on well at Newbury.

Nicholls was quoted as saying he’d suffered from a bout of colic after the race so it’s easy to forgive his run in the Argento – if you need to forgive him for finishing second to a horse who loves the course and was just touched off in the Gold Cup a month later.

The ringworm is the only unknown but can anybody show me a horse that doesn’t have at least one question mark in this race ?

Excluding that unknown (because we have no evidence to include it) then Rocky Creek has none as far as I’m concerned.

In conclusion

He’s a big enough horse to carry 11st 5lb, jumps great, should be up with the pace to (hopefully) avoid trouble and at 8 could still be improving while not being too young and, thanks to his Hennessy run he has experience of a large field graded handicap.

I took 25s on Monday morning (win only) and will go back in again between now and race time.

I may even have a saver on the TBP market on the X’s (currently just short of 7.0) to recoup losses should he find one or two too good.

Lee

My Grand National Preview:
Are you all sitting comfortably?

CRABBIES GRAND NATIONAL HANDICAP CHASE 4m3½f

1.

1532

Tidal Bay

13 11-10 (handicap mark 161) Paul Nicholls
A 13 year old hasn’t won the Grand National since 1923, but so few have tried since it is a meaningless statistic. BHA handicapper Phil Smith is playing God, given Tidal Bay a real chance off a mark 7 lbs less than in a normal race. This is no ordinary 13 year old; with no sign of age catching up with him in Welsh National 3rd (3m5½f heavy) in December on penultimate start. Amazingly now 9 lbs better off for just over a length with winner Mountainous. Also better off with all the other placed horses. Excellent record over extreme distances, easy 15 lengths winner of 2012 Bet365 Gold Cup off mark of 154. Needed more of a test of stamina last time out in Grade 1 Irish Hennessey, didn’t get the strong pace he needs at 3m (soft-heavy); 8½ lengths 2nd to Last Instalment. Jumped poorly previous Grand National attempt, unseating at 10th in 2011 and not sure to take to the course again. Invariably dropped out and it is difficult to pass the whole field to win unless it’s a very strong pace. Don’t expect to see him leading until late, can pull himself up once in front. Sam Twiston-Davies

2.

54U1

Long Run

9 11-9 (160) Nicky Henderson
Exceptionally well handicapped on best form, not shown it for a long time. 2011 Cheltenham Gold Cup winner by 7 lengths and 4 from a below best Denman and Kauto Star (3m2½f good). Still a good performance, beating 4th What A Hand just over 11 lengths. Dual King George winner, first one (3m good-soft) an excellent 12 lengths success over subsequent Ryanair winner Riverside Theatre. Not so good since, including a second King George, scraping home by a neck from Captain Chris (heavy). First time visor when jumping fell apart and unseated when chance had gone in latest renewal (soft) penultimate start. Slow deterioration in form has seen handicap mark slip some 22 lbs from 182. Cheek pieces refitted, simple task in confidence boosting 4 runner event (3m2f good-soft) at Kelso last time. Gives impression will stay further than 3m2f. Probably acts on soft but very best efforts on good or good-soft and in ear plugs; could benefit if hooded. Does not need to be near best to win off this mark, but does need to be better than recent efforts, including in the jumping department. Can “leave his back legs behind”. Ridden by owner’s son; an amateur jockey who’s unable to claim his 3 lbs allowance in this race. However, has an outstanding record around National fences anyway, including 4th last year on Oscar Time. Mr Sam Waley-Cohen

3.

6934

Hunt Ball

9 11-7 (158) Nicky Henderson
Back from abortive American campaign. Not far off his best latest start when 7¼ lengths 4th to Dynaste (levels) in Ryanair at Cheltenham (2m5f good). Admirable racehorse, good jumper and attitude. Trainer hasn’t had him long and possible can bring out more improvement. However, not at this trip; seldom raced beyond 2m5f. Would stand a great chance in Topham, but American owners probably just want a Grand National runner. Ran well to be 3 lengths 3rd in 2012 Grade 1 Betfred Bowl at Aintree (3m1f good-soft) behind Follow The Plan. Though weakened late; as he did to a greater extent in 2013 Argento (3m1½f heavy) won by Cape Tribulation. Possible excuse in latter being the ground, Hunt Ball is possibly at the top of his game away from very soft ground. Andrew Tinkler

4.

1310

Triolo D’Alene

7 11-6 (157) Nicky Henderson
Improved to win Hennessey Gold Cup (3m2½f Good) in November with a bit to spare, off a mark of 147. Now 10 lbs higher and 5 lbs worse off with runner-up Rocky Creek for just 2¾ lengths. 19¾ lengths in front of 7th Our Father who’s now 12 lbs better off. With Prince De Beauchene well below form in 13th. Didn’t travel with usual fluency, well beaten 10th of 11 finishers in Cheltenham Gold Cup (3m2½f good) last time. Possibly needs a flatter track than Cheltenham and proven at Aintree. Won Topham (2m5½f good-soft) over National fences off a mark 25 lbs lower than he races off here (improved significantly in Hennessey). Goes well on goodish ground. Progressive before latest start but not certain to stay this trip, especially if the rains come. Barry Geraghty

5.

13-22

Rocky Creek

8 11-5 (156) Paul Nicholls
Giving 5 lbs to The Giant Bolster when beaten 7 lengths in Argento (3m1½f heavy) just holding 2nd in receipt of 5 lbs from Harry Topper – didn’t look good at the time. But winner has gone on to be a close 3rd in the Cheltenham Gold Cup and 3rd subsequently won Denman (Aon) Chase. Rocky Creek was also runner-up in Hennessey, now 5 lbs better off with winner Triolo D’ Alene for 2¾ lengths. 7 lbs worse off with 7th Our Father for 17 lengths. Touched odds-on in-running in both starts this season. Possibly a weak finisher. However, races came after a break, Newbury his seasonal reappearance and had colic between races; so possibly not fully fit for either. Hardly gone smoothly since and missed the Cheltenham Festival with ringworm; although expected to be in A1 condition by Saturday. Trip should suit, jumps superbly, travels well and acts on both heavy and good ground. One to back before the race and leave an in-running lay at short odds. Noel Fehily

6.

475P

Quito De La Roque

10 11-1 (152) Colm Murphy (Ireland)
Winner of Grade 1 JN Wine (3m soft) at Down Royal in 2011, staying on strongly run-in after being outpaced to beat Sizing Europe (levels) 1¼ lengths. Giving the impression an extreme trip will suit. Well handicapped on best form, but nowhere near so good this season. Again making mistakes and pulled up latest start. Good record over Aintree’s smaller fences, won Grade 1 staying novice chase and 8¾ lengths 4th to First Lieutenant in last year’s Betfred Bowl (3m1f good). Ground conditions and trip shouldn’t be a problem; the fences and whether he’s still capable are the draw backs to his chance. Return to a left-handed track may help. Brian Connell

7.

3U0F

Colbert Station

10 11-0 (151) Ted Walsh (Ireland)
Has a mark 2 lbs higher than when one of the favourites at 12/1 last year, unseated at The Chair. Carried top weight in Troytown (3m good-yeilding) good 3¼ lengths 3rd in November. Giving winner Cootamundra 21 lbs off an Irish mark of 147. Had Goonyella who’s now 2 lbs better off for 3½ lengths back in 5th. However, unseated in hurdle race and no chance when taking a crashing fall 2 out over fences latest start, obviously not an ideal preparation. Only 9 chase starts and possibly more improvement to come if confidence hasn’t been shaken. Better form at 3m than shorter and although unproven, should stay further. Possibly best with give underfoot. Tony McCoy rode last year but has passed him over this time around. Mark Walsh

8.

52-U4

Walkon

9 11-0 (151) Alan King
Had to qualify for this by finishing in first 4 in a 3 mile chase and just about did so; some 86 lengths behind Harry Topper in Denman (Aon) Chase, not settling. Barely stays 3 miles and does not always convince with jumping despite excellent ¾ length 2nd in Topham (2m5½f good-soft) over National fences. Tried to give a stone to winner Triolo D’Alene (who’s improved enormously since). 3 lbs worse off with 3rd Last Time D’Albain for 5 lengths. Unseated in Old Roan Chase penultimate start. Owner is a Liverpool fan and probably wants a runner in Aintree’s big race. I doubt if it’s his trainer’s choice of target. Walkon is sure to be popular with Scousers but is one to forget about. Wayne Huchinson

9.

1111

Balthazar King

10 10-13 (150) Philip Hobbs
Stays, jumps, very genuine, improving and going for a five timer. Not a bad Grand National CV. Won X-Country Chase (4m1f) at Cheltenham Festival off top weight (exceptional record on the track) holding on gamely by short head from Any Currency, giving 16 lbs to runner-up and 3 lbs to 3 lengths 3rd and previous race winner Big Shu, who’s now 2 lbs better off. Balthazar King had a hard race there and whether he’ll recover in time is questionable. Should not be judged on 15th place in last year’s National; arguably set too strong a pace. Front-runner or tracks pace. Possibly a Cheltenham specialist but there aren’t many better jumpers in the field and deserves another chance to prove effectiveness around Aintree. Won’t want it to rain too much, best form away from very soft ground. Richard Johnson

10.

52P7

Wayward Prince

10 10-13 (150) Hilary Parrott
Enigmatic performer, rekindled by a switch to owner / trainer’s yard in November 2012, enthusiasm hasn’t lasted. Reserves best for Aintree’s ordinary fences and Wetherby. Only good performance this term at latter track; neck 2nd giving 4 lbs to Harry Topper (who’s improved since) in Charlie Hall. Over 68 lengths 7th of 9 finishers, never travelling in Grimthorpe at Doncaster latest start (ground a possible excuse). Best form on a soft surface in small fields. Lazy and seems put off by making mistakes. Should stay this extreme trip but unlikely to give himself any chance to do so. Jack Doyle

11.

3112

Mr Moonshine

10 10-12 (149) Sue Smith
From same connections as last year’s winner Aurora’s Encore. Mr Moonshine’s handicap mark has risen 13 lbs for winning two small field 2½m races this season. 3¾ lengths 3rd in Becher Chase (3¼m soft) over National fences off mark of just 136. Getting 2 lbs from winner Chance Du Roy there and now gives him 6lbs. Jumping well in the main and finishing strongly. Stamina resources remain inconclusive at this extreme trip. Out of form at time of last year’s Grand National when pulled up. Slightly disappointing (5/4 fav) 4½ lengths 2nd last time out. Not travelling with usual fluency. Acts on heavy and good; softer it is the less likely he is to stay. Likes racing prominently or tracks pace. Ryan Mania

12.

3-928

Teaforthree

10 10-12 (149) Rebecca Curtis
Races off a 2 lbs lower mark than when 9¼ lengths 3rd in last year’s Grand National, would’ve been closer but for a mistake at final fence, jumped impeccably up to then and rallying once runner-up came alongside run-in. Now on just a 5 lbs higher mark than when excellent ½ length 2nd in 2012 Welsh Grand National (3m5½f heavy). Is 13 lbs better off with winner (who’s admittedly improved since) Monbeg Dude, the pair 11 lengths clear. Teaforthree was said beforehand to need his reappearance in this season’s renewal. BHA Handicapper would’ve given him 4 lbs more (153) if the race was framed after his neck 2nd at Ascot. Giving 8 lbs to winner Restless Harry (3m soft). Had Chance Du Roy 8 lengths behind and re-opposes on same terms. Did as well as expected last time out, not knocked about 8th in Cheltenham Gold Cup (3m2½f good). Possibly more improvement to come now returned to an extreme trip. Jumps, stays, goes on any ground, is used to big fields, ran well in the race before, has enough speed to lie up early, well handicapped and open to improvement. The ideal Grand National candidate. Nick Schofield

13.

581U

Across The Bay

10 10-11 (148) Donald McCain
The Aintree Royal Family (McCains) don’t seem to have as good a hand this time. Across The Bay took advantage of a dropping mark (5 lbs lower than today’s) penultimate start. Different tactics used, usually a front runner but dropped out. Got up to win by ½ length in bunched finish. Again held up, unseated last time in a bigger, more competitive field. Doesn’t enjoy being boxed in and has 39 rivals to contend with here. Needs things to go his way early on but genuine in a finish, pulling out more to remain in front. Made mistakes and well beaten twice over National fences. Should stay extreme trips, 6 of 8 wins have come on heavy, the other two soft. Henry Brooke

14.

1116

Double Seven

8 10-11 (148) Martin Brassil (Ireland)
Scored an early season five-timer when cheek pieces applied; progress coming in conjunction with better jumping displays. Victorious from good-firm to soft, 2½m to 3m1f, including Munster “National” (only 3m good) giving subsequent Kim Muir winner Spring Heeled 3 lbs and a 2 length beating. Is always held up for a late run . First start since October and race might have been needed / just a Grand National prep, only 6th latest start in March. Already one of the most improved handicappers this season, mark going up 35 lbs in all. May be capable of better still, especially now given the opportunity to race at a longer trip. Yet to race beyond 3m1f but is by St Leger winner Milan out of a half-sister to disqualified Whitbread Gold Cup winner Cahervillahow. Tony McCoy

15.

1PRP

Battle Group

9 10-10 (147) Johnny Farrelly
Like Aurora’s Encore reserves best for the Spring, surprising how many horses suddenly find their form this time of year. Amazingly won twice in three days here last year. Second occasion in 3m1f (good) handicap chase by 16 lengths off a mark 16 lbs less than today’s. Pulled up apparently with pulled muscles on reappearance; then completely refused to race. Be aware if backing him you might not get a run for your money. Set off in front last time, but tamely gave up once passed. Dislikes soft ground and may not run if too much rain comes. Spring form makes return to best a possibility, although temperament means it’s unlikely. Not bred for extreme distances. Mount of talented young jockey Brendan Powell

16.

5103

Buckers Bridge

8 10-10 (147) Henry De Bromhead (Ireland)
Ran well last time out in Bobbyjo Chase, 16¾ lengths 3rd of 4 finishers, gave 5 lbs to winner and subsequent Cheltenham Gold Cup close 2nd On His Own. Buckers Bridge was having his first race beyond 2¾m, stayed the longer trip (3m1f soft) but another 1¼m is unlikely to suit. Won race at Gowran in November (2m4f good-yielding) jumping better than usual in small 4 runner field. Raced with give in the ground, but the softer it is the more emphasis is on stamina. Andrew Lynch

17.

5714

Lion Na Bearnai

12 10-10 (147) Thomas Gibney (Ireland)
Won 2012 Irish Grand National off an Irish mark of 135, by 4½ lengths from Out Now who received 4 lbs. Lion Na Bearnai hasn’t shown much since and doesn’t appear to be let in lightly here. Was improving as a 10 year old, but now 12 and doubtful whether still capable of that sort of form. Nowhere near best to win uncompetitive 5 runner race (2m5½f heavy) both 2nd and 3rd jumped poorly. Last of 4 finishers, beaten 49¾ lengths by On His Own in Bobbyjo (3m1f soft) last time. 33 lengths behind 3rd Buckers Bridge who he meets on identical terms. Looks best on soft surface. Davy Russell

18.

3094

Prince De Beauchene

11 10-10 (147) Willie Mullins (Ireland)
Won staying handicap over park fences at this meeting in 2011. 2012 National ante-post favourite before injury ruled him out. Below best this campaign including 30 lengths 13th in Hennessy at Newbury. Despite 8 lbs lower mark is not weighted to reverse form with Triolo D’Alene or Rocky Creek. However, we know he’s capable of better than that. Winner of 2012 Grade 2 Bobbyjo Chase (3m1f soft) by an easy 6 lengths from Grand National runner-up Black Apalachi (levels). It is possible age might be catching up with him but big step back in the right direction last time out. Fair 10¼ lengths 4th over an inadequate 2m4f (soft). Usually races prominently or tracks pace. Unraced beyond 3¼m but could be suited by it; has a stayer’s gait, carries head low and settles well. Isn’t beholden to the state of the ground. Paul Townend

19.

3415

Monbeg Dude

9 10-9 (146) Michael Scudamore
Progressive staying chaser sure to be popular with the public and have backed him ante-post in readiness of the price shortening with publicity and arbing out. Ex-England rugby captain Mike Tindall part owns and wife, Queen’s grand-daughter (and 3 day eventer) Zara Phillips has been working on Dude’s jumping. A better round saw improvement, won a December Cheltenham handicap 3m1½f (good). Receiving 9 lbs from runner-up Theatre Guide and beat him 1¼ lengths, the pair 16 clear. Previously best at extreme trips and is probably capable of better now returned to further. 2012 Welsh Grand National winner, beating Teaforthree ½ length with 11 back to the 3rd. Although Dude has improved, it won’t be easy to confirm placings off 13 lbs worse terms. Mistakes resurfaced last time out, 26 lengths 5th in Grimthorpe (3m2f) at Doncaster, trying to give 10 lbs to Night In Milan who (if getting a run) is only 1 lb worse off. Ground a possible excuse, times suggest it was firmer than the official “good”. Might be a coincidence, but best form so far has come at undulating Chepstow and Cheltenham, Aintree is perfectly flat. Unconvinced jumping is consistent enough, still tends to hit one hard. Style of running (dropped out the back) seldom suits this race unless they go too quick early. Paul Carberry

20.

11-23

Big Shu

9 10-8 (145) Peter Maher (Ireland)
2013 Cheltenham X-Country Chase (3m7f) winner off mark of 136. Improved form off higher marks and would’ve done even better if not given so much to do both starts this season. 3rd in this year’s renewal latest start; received 3 lbs and a 3 lengths beating (never nearer) from Balthazar King; now 2 lbs better off with winner and had an easier race too. 2007 Grand National winner Silver Birch came from being placed in the Cheltenham race. Big Shu also won Punchestown’s La Touche X-Country over 4m1f (Heavy). Recently raced exclusively over such fences. Big, improving horse who stays and jumps well and acts on a soft surface. An outsider to be interested in, especially with Paul Carberry replaced with Peter Buchanan

21.

9P82

Burton Port

10 10-8 (145) Jonjo O’Neil
Rated 166 after 8 lengths 4th to Synchronised in 2012 Cheltenham Gold Cup; now on 21 lbs lower mark! Also 2010 Mildmay Novices winner and 3 lengths 2nd in 2012 Betfred Bowl both over Aintree’s smaller Mildmay course. Had 18 months off after latter and a change of stables, from Nicky Henderson to Jonjo O’Neil. Hasn’t been able to recapture form but encouraging 7 lengths 2nd to Summery Justice (3m2½f heavy) giving him 13 lbs off a mark of 141. Sectional times suggest AP pressed on too early, off an already strong pace and should’ve won. Possibly the best handicapped horse in this field. Stays 3¼m, will stay further and goes on any ground. However, first time cheek pieces at Newbury with change of tactics thrown-in and slowed markedly in to one fence before stoked up again to race clear… All suggest he’s possibly not so straightforward nowadays, front running may be essential to him to produce best; which is difficult to pull off here. Brian Harding

22.

4-759

Our Father

8 10-8 (145) David Pipe
Yet to progress from chase debut (3m½f soft). Impressive 20 length winner of a Cheltenham novice in November 2012. Only five starts since. Several errors when blinkered for first time latest start (3m1½f good). Also disappointing on good ground when favourite for Hennessey (3m2½f), now 12 lbs better off for 19¾ lengths beating by winner Triolo D’Alene. Also 7 lbs better off for 17 lengths with 2nd Rocky Creek. Our Father had no excuses penultimate start, strongest stamina test he’s tackled; weakening quickly in straight after (as per usual) travelling well for a long way. 43¼ lengths 5th giving 14 lbs to Rigadin De Beauchene (3m5f heavy). Denis O’Reagan

23.

3315

Mountainous

9 10-7 (144) Richard Lee
All 5 wins have come on very soft ground, although ran well over an inadequate 3m on good-soft at Chepstow in early December. Trainer has a good record there / that time of year and improved form next time, stepped up in trip to win Welsh Grand National (3m5½f heavy) off a mark of 137. Dug deep to repel Hawkes Point, who now re-opposes on 1 lb better terms. Just ½ length back to 3rd Tidal Bay who now re-opposes on a staggering 9 lbs better terms! Mountainous had one race since, at Haydock (3m4f heavy) not knocked about last of 5 finishers. Not well weighted on what he’s done so far, but could yet progress further at marathon trips, especially if the rains arrive and make stamina an even bigger asset. Usually jumps well and a fighter in a finish. Jamie Moore

24.

P-261

The Rainbow Hunter

10 10-7 (144) Kim Bailey
Trainer won Grand National in 1990 with Mr Frisk. The Rainbow Hunter isn’t as good a jumper and often makes mistakes. First of the 40 runners to get rid of his jockey, hampered at the Canal Turn in 2013. Needs to put in a round like he did last time, though still had to survive one bad error 5 out. Helped by being his first start back after a breathing operation – a career best effort. Been put up 8 lbs for that 1½ length success from Baile Anrai, giving him 9 lbs in Great Yorkshire Chase (3m soft) at Doncaster. Is now on an 8 lbs higher mark. Effective from heavy to good; stays 3m1f but despite his breeding does not impress as needing further. Can take a keen hold at lesser trips. Aidan Coleman

25.

262F

Vintage Star

8 10-7 (144) Sue Smith
Trainer victorious in 2013 Grand National with Auroras Encore and owner Trevor Hemmings successful in both 2005 with Hedgehunter and 2011 Ballabriggs. Vintage Star fell early at Cheltenham last time out, possibly good ground a contributory factor, has won on the surface but recent improvement has come under softer conditions. Travelled well for a long way in Welsh Grand National (3m5½f heavy) appeared sure to be involved in finish rounding the turn for home, before appearing not to stay. Beaten 13½ lengths and is now only 2 lbs better off with winner Mountainous. Ran well on the face of it but wandered badly penultimate start, 2nd in Peter Marsh Chase (3m1f heavy) giving 4 lbs to 1½ length winner Wychwoods Brook, looking the probable winner taking the final fence. Brian Hughes

26.

8-1P4

Chance Du Roy

10 10-6 (143) Philip Hobbs
Inconsistent over conventional fences. Racing with more enthusiasm recently. Didn’t fully settle early and probably as a result not finding much under pressure. 4Th, beaten 8 lengths by runner-up Teaforthree and with no weight turn around here. Has a better record over National fences, 4½ lengths 2nd, giving winner Always Waining 10 lbs in 2012 Topham (2m5½f good). Won Becher Chase (3m2f soft) on reappearance in December. Now on an 8 lbs higher mark, although is 8 lbs better off with the 3rd despite beating Mr Moonshine (improved since) 2¾ lengths. Veteran Swing Bill in 5th has 15¼ lengths to make up with a 10 lbs pull. Chance Du Roy is usually held up or tracks pace, stays 3¼m but judging by the way he goes through his races is not sure to get 4m3½f. Tom O’Brien

27.

P-426

Hawkes Point

9 10-6 (143) Paul Nicholls
Improved performance to be head 2nd in Welsh Grand National (3m5½f heavy). Now 1 lb better off with winner Mountainous which is fair enough, but 8 lbs worse for just ½ a length back to 3rd, stable mate Tidal Bay. Disappointing 45½ lengths 6th of 7 finishers in Haydock Grand National Trial (3m5f heavy). Never travelling or jumping when held up last time out. Recent best came when racing more prominently and may not have liked being crowded, has 39 rivals here. Only had 7 races over fences and could resume progress if temperament holds. Gives impression the greater test of stamina (softer) the better. Ryan Mahon.

28.

1173

Kruzhlinin

7 10-6 (143) Donald McCain
Better than ever to win couple of uncompetitive Kelso handicaps, now on a 13 lbs higher mark than first of those successes; both 2m7½f on good-soft. All 6 wins in single figure fields and can look unwilling at times. Never involved penultimate start 15½ lengths 7th of 15 runners in Great Yorkshire Chase; no better in smaller field latest run. Young enough to still have improvement in him. Won on heavy and good, from 2m to 3m; so doesn’t strike as likely to progress over this distance. Wilson Renwick

29.

2713

Pineau De Re

11 10-6 (143) Dr Richard Newland
Despite now 11 years old, is in form of his life. Possibly due to a new (under-rated) trainer who has made his name by improving older horses he gets from other yards. Won veterans chase (3m soft) penultimate start off a mark 10 lbs lower than today’s. Always travelling well and despite a mistake at the last winning easily, by 5 lengths from Tullmore Dew who he gave 7 lbs. Excellent 3rd last time out in Pertemps Hurdle (3m good) at Cheltenham, off a mark in that sphere of 140. Doing well by coming from further back than the other principles; is always held up for a late run. Could be more to come back over bigger obstacles. This time last year winning Ulster National (3m4f good) by 23 lengths, off a significantly lower Irish mark of 125, on final start for Philip Fenton. That run (distance) suggesting has a fair chance of staying this extreme trip. Fell at 8th in Becher Chase over Grand National fences in December. Leighton Aspell

30.

3/3-U1

Golan Way

10 10-5 (142) Tim Vaughan
One of our very own used to part own Golan Way. Changed stables and off over a year; unseated on hunter chase debut when held up. Only small but can jump well when leading. Back to front running tactics and clear throughout to win another hunter chase (3m2f soft) at Warwick in a canter. Not needing to be near best. Refused to race once, when unable to get a prominent position at start. Races genuinely when things go his way. Not bred to stay this far, but still fighting when mistake final fence at 3m5½f (soft) 3rd on last start for Sheena West. Ran well on both soft and good ground. Impossible to know just what he’s still capable of. Any idea Softie? Michael Byrne

31.

017U

Twirling Magnet

8 10-5 (142) Jonjo O’Neil
Ran poorly last time out (3m1½f good) amateur ridden and chance already gone when unseating 2 out at Cheltenham, usually runs well there. Has had only 27 days to recover from whatever ailed him. May have had problems after winning novice chase by 4½ lengths at same track in October (3m½f good) by 4½ lengths from Pantoxa (levels). Best form kept away from very soft ground held up for a late run. Stays 3m1f but not crying out for further; on breeding has already outstayed pedigree, by miler Imperial Ballet. Richie McLernon

32.

2-FU9

Vesper Bell

8 10-5 (142) Willie Mullins (Ireland)
Looked a decent staying chaser in the making when runner-up on final start last season (3m6f heavy). Now a stone better off for a head with winner Goonyella. However, fell at first in Becher Chase over these fences on reappearance; blundered and unseated next start. Ran poorly, 37¾ lengths 9th in Thyestes (3m1f soft) last time out in January. Wisely has now been given time to recover his confidence and enthusiasm. Suited by a test of stamina on a soft surface. Could yet resume progression if all remains well but has questions to answer now. Paul Casey

33.

4PP-3

The Package

11 10-4 (141) David Pipe
Lightly raced of late; not seen for a year before good 8¾ lengths 3rd getting 4 lbs from Holywell in 3m½f (good-soft) handicap chase at the Cheltenham Festival. However, doesn’t hold his form very long and not certain to reproduce that effort, let alone improve on it. Off 6 lbs higher mark of 147 when 14¼ lengths 4th in receipt of 13 lbs from winner Bobs Worth in 2012 Hennessey (3m2f110yrds good-soft) as a 9 year old (now 11). Races as though will stay further than 3m2f: Made mistakes and unseated at 19th fence in 2010 Grand National and two weeks later only 18½ lengths 5th in Bet365 Gold Cup (3m5½f good). Indifferent to state of the ground. Tom Scudamore

34.

POP3

Raz De Maree

9 10-3 (140) Dessie Hughes (Ireland)
Returned to form when blinkered for the first time; 8½ lengths 3rd in uncompetitive 5 runner minor event latest start (3m2f yielding to soft) in March. Blundered away his chance 2 out when 12th of 18 in Punchestown Grand National Trial. Ran poorly and pulled up other starts this season. Won 2012 Cork Grand National (3m4f soft) by 9 lengths from an Irish mark of 132. Seemingly booked for 2nd when Outlaw Pete ran out at the last. Stays well and probably best on soft surface. Davy Condon

35.

4P-01

Rose Of The Moon

9 10-3 (140) David O’Meara
Put up 8 lbs for winning 4 finisher Wetherby handicap. Ridden by Tony McCoy for the first time, gave 1 lb and 9 lengths beating to irresolute Real Milan. Rose Of The Moon was 22 lengths 10th in 22 runner Becher Chase over National fences on reappearance. Didn’t always impress with jumping as a novice last season, especially in larger fields. Stays 3m3f and may well get further. Ridden by conditional unable to claim his 3 lbs. Jake Greenall

36.

9/6P0

Shakalakaboomboom

10 10-3 (140) Nicky Henderson
Ran better than 28 lengths 9th of 15 finishers suggests in 2012 Grand National (4½m good) when 8/1 joint favourite. Jumping well, up with strong pace until two out before weakening. Softer ground will place more emphasis on stamina. Over a year off the track afterwards. Hasn’t looked capable of taking advantage of a 9 lbs lower mark than 2012 in any of three starts this term. Last time only 17th of 18 finishers in 3m½f (good-soft) handicap chase at Cheltenham. David Bass

37.

3-51P

Alvarado

9 10-2 (139) Fergal O’Brien
Inconsistent and untrustworthy, has twice refused. Won 3m3½f (good) handicap at Cheltenham in November. By 2 lengths from Knockara Beau who was giving 13 lbs. Now 1 lb better off with 4th Monbeg Dude (improved since) despite beating him 4¼ lengths. However, Alvorado is flattered; dropped out the back off an overly strong pace and running on passed tired rivals. Never going well when pulled up last time out on 1st Jan at same course. Good record fresh and according to sportinglife.com has won 5 of 10 races after a 60+ day break. Acts on soft and good going, evidently a bit of a thinker, lazy and should stay the trip. Ridden by a jockey with remarkable record of being placed in the last four Grand Nationals Paul Moloney

38.

3-009

Last Time D’Albain

10 10-2 (139) Liam Cusack (Ireland)
Poor form this season, 44 lengths 9th over hurdles only 2 weeks ago, 33 lengths last of 10 finishers over fences before that. Good 5¾ lengths 3rd over National fences in Topham (2m5½f good-soft) but came in to that race in much better form than he does here. Now 23 lbs better off with winner Triolo D’Alene (improved since) and 3 lbs better with 5 lengths 2nd Walkon. Only once in 30 starts has he been tried as far as 3m, in Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown, December 2012. Ran reasonably well (3m½f soft) now 9 lbs better off for a 7½ lengths beating from easy winner Colbert Station. Last Time D’Albain looks an unlikely stayer. Best with give underfoot, but very soft ground would place even more emphasis on stamina. Robbie Colgan

39.

P465

One In A Milan

9 10-2 (139) Evan Williams
Ridden by 7 lb claimer from 11 lbs out of the handicap on his only good effort of the season three starts back. 4th to Mountainous (who gave 7 lbs) in Welsh Grand National (3m5½f heavy). Now 5 lbs better off for 7½ lengths with winner; 6 lbs better with 2nd Hawkes Point but 3 lbs worse off for 7 lengths with 3rd Tidal Bay. One In A Milan has since been disappointing off lower marks over hurdles. Best form on very soft ground. Adam Wedge

40.

06-50

Swing Bill

13 10-1 (138) David Pipe
Lost all chance last time with a slow start under a claiming amateur in Kim Muir at Cheltenham, 45 lengths 11th of 12 finishers off this mark. Reserves best for races over Grand National fences. 15¼ lengths 5th in Becher Chase (3m2f soft) from mark of 140. Now 10 lbs better off with winner Chance Du Roy, 18 lbs better off for 12½ lengths with 3rd Mr Moonshine (who’s improved since). Swing Bill was 34 lengths 6th in last year’s Grand National off a 4 lbs higher a mark of 142. Just 2 lbs better off for 25 lengths with 3rd Teaforthree. Other Aintree races were: 4th, 10th, pulled up, 5th, which all give a place chance. However, age means some rivals have more improvement and (unlike fellow teenager Tidal Bay) not handicapped well enough to win. Needs one to come out to get a run. Conor O’Farrell

Those below need some /someone to come out to get a run.

42. 2582 Goonyella 7 10-1 (138) Jim Dreaper
Won 3m6f (heavy) handicap last April off an Irish mark of 127; by a head from Vesper Bell who is now a stone better off. Just getting up close home. Seemed to do equally as well over what looked an inadequate trip (2m6f heavy) on reappearance; suggesting more may be to come once returned to further. 1¼ lengths 2nd giving 1 lb to winner Count Salazar. Subsequently lost his form but more promising last time out (February). 3¼ lengths Runner-up in 3m Grade 3 Novice on hurdling debut, giving 3 lbs to 5 year old Don Poli. Goonyella clearly goes well with plenty of give. Paddy Brennan

43. 5475 Soll 9 10-0 (137) Jo Hughes
Came in to last year’s National on the back of a career best win (made all) and looking an assured jumper. But made several mistakes and only 44 lengths 7th. Has 35 lengths to make up and is 5 lbs worse off with 2nd Teaforthree. 7 lbs better off with 6th Swing Bill for 10 lengths. Seems to jump better in front and back to those tactics last time, well backed but only fair 10 lengths 5th of 8 at Sandown. Led but outpaced and dropped to last before staying on again, possibly found 3m½f (soft) not enough of a test. Best form so far at right-handed Sandown. Mark Grant

44. 01P1 Night In Milan 8 10-0, 9-13 in long handicap (137 or 136) Keith Reveley
Improving at right time with career best last time out (3m2f) Doncaster Grimthorpe. Jumped impeccably in share of lead to win by 5 lengths off this mark. Not many rivals coped with conditions which were (judged by times) faster than the official “good”. Had Monbeg Dude a not knocked about 5th some 26 lengths back, and on same terms here. Well handicapped, has been given a mark 8 lbs higher for future handicaps. Carries head high and not 100% straightforward, but very genuine if things go his way; possibly needs to lead. Best on goodish ground.

Absolutely superb analysis of the field Ginger, I enjoyed that immensely. I know you are a Teaforthree man, good luck with him.

Really keen on Across the Bay at 50/1 so he’ll probably be the horse I put the most on, the others I’ll be backing are Tidal Bay 16/1, Twirling Magnet 66/1 and Rose of the Moon 50/1.

It is good that Ginger spares the time but surely the degree of merit can only be properly judged around 4.25 on Saturday? Chances are if the you write about enough horses, you will get some right, some wrong.

Thought he gave a pretty fair analysis of each horse. If someone who has little time/interest to do their own research then Ginger’s preview gives an excellent run through of each horse imo.

Agreed, incredibly hard not to come across as biased towards any of the runners when doing write-ups but Ginge seems to have nailed it just fine!

teaforthree should go close was 25-1 now 8-1 came 3rd last year is a very good jumper and is 5 pounds lower than last year. and rebecca curtis says is in better shape this year.