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Seems a long way off, but with the jumps season slowly getting into gear, be interesting to see peoples long term fancies.
The 3 miler at Chepstow was a cracking race for this stage of the season, and Pete The Feat looked as if he’s retained plenty of the ability he showed last season. Fell when looking like landing it, and if they can keep him on a handy mark, then he’d be very interesting. That’s if they’re considering the race for him of course.
My main fancy at the moment would be Double Seven. Definitely going the right way, and landed The Munster National yesterday. A lot to like about the way he’s won his races, and this has got to be on his radar. Not a bean on him so far, as he’s not been added to the market yet on Betfair. Certainly not adding him myself, as my record for adding horses to The National betting, normally results in them not getting an entry. It’s certainly something of a tradition for me.
I’ve had a small interest in a couple so far;
Panther Claw of Gigginstowns looked very promisisng last season, before slightly disappointing last time out. I’d probably want it a bit soft for him, which you rarely get at Aintree, but looking forward to seeing him out again. Think the Welsh National would be ideal for him, but Gigginstown don’t send many over for that, never mind The National, but I’m hoping it’s on the agenda anyway.
Another I like is Tour Des Champs. He’ll only be a 7 year old, and his jumping is somewhat “unpredictable”, but with the dramatic softening of the fences, this might not be so much of an issue. His age would worry me more, and would normally be enough to put me off, but I’ve made an exception. Was running on very well at the end of The Scottish National, and that was after a long hard season. Can easily see this being the target.
Last years placed horses, particularly Cappa Bleu, and Teaforthree would be as safe a long term investment as you could hope for at this stage, and Soll, who finished 7th, would also appear to be an obvious pick.
I’d love to see connections of Baily Green consider The National, as I think he’s crying out for a step up in trip, and despite being due a hefty weight, I think he’d be up for it. Maybe one for future seasons.
Plenty of others worthy of note just now, including Godsmejudge, Triolo D’Alene, Battle Group, Call The Police, Prince of Pirates, Same Difference, and Super Duty. That’s half the horses in training mentioned there, so might have to whittle them down at some point
No doubt Graham Wylie will have a couple at the head of the market, but like Gigginstown, is hard to second guess the main target for them.
As I said, very early doors, but looking forward to seeing a few of those above, and others, in the coming weeks and months.
Shakalakaboomboom [sp] is supposedly back in training and aimed at the race. Will run in hurdles prior to it. Given that the fences are easier now he might get home this time.
It used to be one of my favourite betting races, but I think I’ll be leaving it alone now. Aintree had little option but to do what they did with the fences, but jumping means (comparatively) little now and I think we’ll see plenty more 66/1 and upwards fighting out the finish.
I thought I had cracked it two years ago, I had been banging on about Seabass, puting it forward for months before the race. The arguments put forward were pretty much all about Seabass not getting the trip, I was even told to "get a grip" as he was a 2 1/2 mile specialist. Anyway, I picked up all sorts of fancy odds well before the race and when he went off 8-1 fav, I was feeling fairly smug. I was feeling even more smug as he headed to the last, but from the elbow he just was run out of it by Neptune Collonges and Sunnyhillboy. A decent third and profitable enough.
I thought that as a 10yr old, last year would be his year, but I don’t quite know what to make of last year’s effort. He ran well enough but without looking as if he was traveling as well as he did the previous year, and from 3 out he faded. It was disappointing and again it was mentioned he is not a proper stayer for the National.
I don’t accept that, I think he really could be a National winner and any horse can have an indifferent race. I don’t think I’ve got my blinkers on just because I picked him out 2 years ago, I’m quite happy to let a horse go when it doesn’t live up to expectations. As for the staying argument, I don’t think it’s fair to call any horse that’s leading at the elbow, and only get’s beaten by 5 lengths, a non stayer.
At 11yrs, a good age for winners of the National, I’m sticking with him, even if I’m not quite as confident as I was 2 years ago. His first run will be at Down royal on 2nd Novemeber, his target will be the National again so I won’t be too unhappy if he doesn’t show all he has, he did get unfairly lumped with 11st6lbs last year, I hope the handicapper gives him a decent chance this year.
33-1 is the general price, I don’t think that will change much even if he does win at Down Royal, maybe a few points. The only reason he won’t run in the National is if he gets injured or is unwell, so I’m being bold and taking the 33s.
I will have another bet or two, depending on what impresses me between now and then.
Prince De Beauchene would most certainly be on of interest if he actually manages to get to the race next year, having withdrwan the last 2 years with the same problem (stress fracture of hip bone). He is also 33s, but I wouldn’t advise taking a chance on him getting there at this point. I’ll watch him to see how he is doing and if all looks well he would be my second pick.
I agree with VTC, Panther Claw is another one that looks a very likely National horse, he will be 8years old next year so maybe they will have a go, but the could decide to wait another year, 9-11 seems the most effective age for national winners. This might change, as I agree with Steeplechasing that the race has changed, obviously their hands were tied, but it means we could have a different type of horse winning the National over the coming years. Bit of a pity really.
I’m just glad that the jumps season is nearly upon us, the flat is just something to pass my time waiting for the jumps.
Best of luck to all.
Bostons Angel
screams Grand National to me. Horses who were good novices tend to go well here and with Robbie Power on board; i would flag this one up as one to beat.
Also fancy
Battle Group
(who’s owners are 100% targeting this race) and quite fancy
Romanesco
. Was staying on well when falling at the last in the Irish National. Could be worth something with a small weight.
Join Together
ran a year too soon. I don’t like 8 year olds in this and i hope the experience hasn’t soured him. Otherwise he’s the perfect National type too.
If Donald McCain is smart, and we know he is, he’ll wait another year before running my no.1 horse in training;
Dunowen Point
. I saw this horse win a novice hurdle at Cartmel a couple years back and ever since then i’ve told anyone who’ll listen that this horse will win the Grand National one day. He won’t do it next year though. As good as his run in the Topham was, i’d avoid the National for the time being. If i could back this horse for the 2015/16 races i would!
Romanesco & Dunowen Point tick lots of boxes for me – but its The Rainbow Hunter for me – if fit and gets in with an ok weight – bigger chance of getting balloted out at the way the race is setup.
Needs luck to get in and luck on the day – we will see …
Dunowen Point is supposed to be going for the Grand Sefton in December. By Old Vic but know nothing about the dam. Interesting that one. Maybe with stamina possibly being less of an issue 8 year olds will have a better chance now.
Dunowen Point is supposed to be going for the Grand Sefton in December. By Old Vic but know nothing about the dam. Interesting that one. Maybe with stamina possibly being less of an issue 8 year olds will have a better chance now.
I thought about that, but i feel Join Together is case and point. Also by Old Vic, so is bred to stay. But simply did not fire on the day and i feel his age is why…
Right now the Sefton and the Topham are the perfect races for him, in my opinion.
Yeah, I’d agree with that Joe, race will never be the same again, but I’d be quite happy to see some more 66-1 shots landing it. Just adds to the challenge of trying to find the winner.
As long as it’s a still a field of 40, I’ll remain engrossed every April. G, you and me both, fancied him big time, and was chipping away at him long before he was introduced to most markets. Was my biggest ever return in The National off the back of numerous bets, both singles and luckies, and his price plummeting on the day meant a very healthy lay too. He was in the form of his life then, and I still maintain they seriously missed a trick not running him in The Gold Cup that year, would have went close.
I remember the "bashers" leading up to the race, some even gloating when it was clear Katie was getting the ride (she was always going to be riding it anyway). Much satisfaction was made when one of these "bashers" gave Seabass as a long term fancy for last seasons race, citing Katie in the saddle as being a major plus.
As for being a non stayer, I’ve no problem with anyone doubting his stamina before the 2012 race, but those calling him a non stayer after his third, well, words fail me.
It’s difficult to know what to make of him last season. I’m pretty sure he wasn’t the same horse last season, and would certainly explain some of his runnings. Only had a few quid on him for this years race, but it was a very disappointing run, and never really looked like collecting at any stage.
Your 33’s looks very fair, and I’d think a win at Down Royal just might see a bigger reduction in price than you think. Good luck with him. Doubt I’ll back him myself this year, but I’d love to see him go close again.
Think Battle Group will surprise a few people this season, and might just be a bit better than people realise.
Was on Romanesco at huge prices last season, and was a little bit gutted when he didn’t make it. He seems one of the more obvious Gigginstown types, along with the likes of Tofino Bay
, and hopefully Panther Claw. I still think Quito De La Roque
should be given his chance, though sometimes I don’t think they quite know what to do with him.Should have a better idea today about Tour Des Champs chances, though more interested in how he jumps, than whether he wins or not.
Looks a decent race, and could throw up a few possibles for Aintree. One to keep any eye on is
Bradley
. A real favourite of mine, and had a few quid on him for Aintree at this stage last season, and was probably my main hope at that point. Was going the right way, and proving to be an immaculate jumper.
He seemed to be a different horse though in his last few runs, and it looked as if there might be a physical problem with him. If they’ve got that sorted out, then the 100’s available just now, would look a tad generous.
Should have a better idea today about Tour Des Champs chances, though more interested in how he jumps, than whether he wins or not.
Was gutted when they didn’t run him in the 4 miler at Cheltenham. I’m convinced he’ll have gone close. Backed him E/W today and was given a hell of a run for my money.
On the other hand
Tullamore Dew
almost made me faint. I backed this horse all last season and although he was certainly consistent, i decided to leave him alone this time… turning for home i thought he was gonna stand on his hind legs and flip me off! Not sure he’ll quite be good enough to win a National at 12, but if they run him in the Becher Chase, i’d be very excited!
Great read this thread, the depth of knowledge of some posters on here is astonishing.
Just watched the Cheltenham race; wasn’t Tullamore Dew a pretty dodgy jumper, because I was amazed at how well he seemed to be jumping today. And old Knockara Beau seemed to be show his earlier promise at Kelso. It was lovely to see him win. I’m sure we saw him at Wetherby last year [?]. Beautiful horse. Oh blimey; it was 2010!! Time flies…
the rainbow hunter reminds me of little polvier all those years ago … same hard luck story and the races history is littered with them … different race nowadays tho – but the distance hasnt changed and although the fences are softer they still have the same feel for the horses – they either relish them or not.
Will be aimed at the Ascot race he won last year in Novemeber and needs to win a couple of races to guarantee a run in the National, so will be fit and ready to run a big race this Autumn. I’d love to see Kim Bailey win a big race again.
Godsmejudge would be one I’d be interested in, won the Scottish last year and I think will be trained for this. I can see King having a good season.
Tidal Bay is going straight to Aintree after his awesome performance on Saturday. Tell you what, if Long Run turns up, relieving him of top weight, you’d give him a hell of a shout. Hell, even with top weight i could see the old boy going close. What a smashing horse.
Monbeg Dude is my newest interest. Seems to tick many boxes.
I’d like Balthazar King for this, but Richard Johnson always does too much with his mounts in this race. I still maintain that Whats Up Boys would have won in 2002 had Johnson just been a little more patient. A jockey like Sam Twiston Davies would bring out the very best of this horse in the National. A front runner specialist with a killer record over these fences.
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