2000 Guineas 2014

For me

Toormore

looks the most solid ‘miler’ going forward at the head of the market Darren. The vibes have been really that he’ll make a much better 3 year old and he’s definitely the pick of the bunch for me at this stage.

I wish I had taken some of the 33’s on Toormore before Goodwood. According to ‘those in the know’ the likes of Hannon, Hughes and bozlike this horse will be a much better 3 y/o and he already looks pretty hot.

I backed Toormore on his second outing and then at 20/1 for the 2000 Guineas in the aftermath. When Outstrip kicked on and got first run at Goodwood I thought Toormore would have to be really good to catch him, yet he did so with Hughes able to drop his hands just before the line. It obviously helped that Outstrip hosed in next time and Toormore beating Sudirman gives a line to War Command (although it is entirely up to Gingertipster to decide if that line is valid or not )

With the Middle Park and Dewhurst being run back to back on Saturday we will have to wait to see what shape the field will take for each race, since several of the contenders are entered in both races (surely a planning faux pas of epic proportions?)

Finally, is it just me or does this year’s renewal of The Rockfel look decidedly unexciting?

As Im not really into jump racing, I though I would spend a bit of time looking at the key 2000 Gns contenders, maybe a bit early but here goes anyway.

Australia

Improved as a 2YO with easy educational runs, impressive in a Leopardstown G3 over 1M. Currently near the forefront of the betting for the 2000gns and Derby, at this stage I would be more interested in the Derby. The are definitely more pattern races to be won with him in 2014, but its always difficult guessing what the Ballydoyle Guineas plans are, so we will wait and guess a bit nearer to the race

Be Ready

I was pretty impressed with this one in the Doncaster Flying Scotsman Listed race, quickening very well to beat Barley Mow by 3L. This gets more interesting as Barley Mow was beaten a similar distance in the Lagardere. It seems that Be Ready could well be the main Godolphin 2000Gns candidate, I am hoping that he progresses well in the Spring as he will be an interesting runner

Berkshire

I cant really see Berkshire taking a hand in the Guineas, Ok the Chesham run was good and the media latched on to him, but the Royal Lodge run was not very noteworthy. He will have to improve significantly on that run to get involved in the Guineas

Great White Eagle

Great White Eagle had looked promising at one stage of his 2YO season, but didn’t show much in the Middle Park, granted he didn’t get much racing room, but didn’t show much in the closing stages. He has to show a lot more to be considered for the 2000 Guineas

Indian Maharaja

From his two educational runs as a 2YO, Indian Maharaja is surely going to be quite high in the Ballydoyle pecking order. Currently seems to be more of a Derby candidate from the betting. If he is lined up for Newmarket, then will surely come in for consideration

Karakontie

Karakontie is pretty tough and is a battler, after watching his two pattern race wins I think that he should be treated with respect wherever he runs in 2014, however, I suspect that he will be vulnerable to a top class runner with a good turn of foot. I don’t expect he will come over for the 2000 Guineas, if he does I think that there will be one or two better than him

Kingman

He has done everything asked of him to date, just a shame that he wasn’t able to run again in his 2YO season after a comfortable win in the Solario (minor operation prevented him running in any of the 2YO group one races). Open to significant improvement, so need to keep him on side, though I don’t expect any value from him as media have him in their sights

Kingston Hill

Impressive winner of the Racing Post Trophy over 1M on heavy ground, as such it is expected that he will be more suited to distances in excess of 1M as a 3YO. So unless the ground is heavy at Newmarket, I believe that he would be worth opposing in the Guineas. However he is pretty certain to win pattern races as a 3YO so he is definitely worth keeping an eye on.

Night Of Thunder

Impressive Listed winner when winning the Doncaster Stakes on soft ground. Toormore is the Hannon number one choice for the Guineas, but this one cant be far behind. I guess it all depends how they progress in the spring. This one is certainly worth taking notice of if we have a wet Spring

No Nay Never

American trained, created an excellent impression in the 2YO races that he won on this side of the Atlantic, especially the Morney at Deauville. He will certainly be worth consideration in sprint races as a 3YO but not so sure about the mile which may stretch him, even if run on fast ground.

Outstrip

Outstrip has an excellent turn of foot as shown when taking the Breeders Cup Juvenile. Seems like fast ground suits him well. However, I tend to discard any 2YO that runs in the Breeders Cup, as they tend to be early maturing sorts, that don’t improve as 3YOs, I have such a feeling about Outstrip

Toormore

Toormore progressed well in his 2YO season to take the National Stakes at the Curragh leading all the way and running on well. He picked up late to win the Vintage at Goodwood, though may have been a bit lucky as, if Outstrip had been held up longer I think he would have won. Anyway Toormore is versatile with regards to style of running, and ground conditions, so he must come into calculations as a leading player for the 2000Gns

War Command

War Command has been well tested in 2013, looks sure for pattern level success in 2014. Very impressive in the Coventry, though presumably unexpected based on the SP. One blip in the Phoenix, possibly not quite ready, as subsequent runs indicated to me that he is better than the horses that beat him in the Phoenix. Stated to need GF ground to show his best, which may not be available at Newmarket in May, though if the ground is on the fast side, I would expect him to be a leading player

The two main contenders at the time of writing in my opinion are

Kingman

and

War Command

but they are both currently near the head of the market, so not great value.

The one that I am particularly interested in is

Be Ready

. This one showed immense promise as a 2YO and I feel will be the Godolphin number one choice. I hope that they don’t race him in Dubai, as Dubai contenders seem to need a break when they return to the UK. A lot depends on whether or not they can get him ready for May, not sure about this based on past results.

The other one that I like is

Night Of Thunder

if the going is likely to be testing.

I have created a YouTube playlist that includes most of the 2YO races involving the key 2000 Gns contenders, that is where the video is available on YouTube (I don’t add such videos to YouTube myself, just link to what I have found to exist)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aNrqsZcmfzg&list=PLCyHaNaZtt_-0Fe69Fx1CV0_ilvaB2Bv4

If

No Nay Never

turns up for the 2000 Guineas he will take all the beating.
Owned by the Smith, Tabor, Magnier team he will have no trouble staying the mile at Newmarket on what could be good soft going, he was running on in France when winning over 6 furlongs impressively beating Vorda and I loved the way he fought back when headed in the Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot last year to forge ahead and win cosily.
The 25/1 on offer about him at present looks extremely good value.

Interesting you mention running after being treated with steroids.The fo;;owing is a statement sollowing the Godolphin incident.
"It is feasible that horses will benefit from steroids for a period of time after the substance has left the horse’s system.

"However it is unlikely that these beneficial effects would last in perpetuity. This is why the BHA has made the decision to suspend all horses found to have been administered with anabolic steroids for six months."

That view was cautiously supported by David Mountford, the chief executive of the British Equine Veterinary Association, who said: "There isn’t a black and white answer. The reason is that using steroids in sport is against the rules, so there isn’t any research on their effects and there would be all sorts of practical difficulties in carrying out any research.

"So it’s virtually impossible to be definitive but my understanding is that all the scientific indicators are that the residual effect of these drugs would be likely to have gone by now. The amount of time the BHA has banned those horses is enough to allow the effects to pass and the present state of knowledge suggests they would now be competing on level terms."

Racegoers and punters may respond with suspicion to runners known to have received steroids up to April, none of which have raced in the past year. However, Robin Mounsey, a spokesman for the British Horseracing Authority, defended the decision to let them race again.
See above post.

On the balance of probabilities Encke won an English classic on steroids, it is a crying shame and scandal that due to BHA botched enquiry (deliberate?) that we have not been able to confirm or refute this.

Rizeena a possible for the 2000 – Clive is on a bit of a wind up surely?