Grand National 2013

Superb stuff Ginger, as ever, a hell of a lot of work in that. Usual question, is it OK to publish on my blog (will credit and link)?

Thanks
Joe

Of course it is Joe.

I’ll put my idea of the prices to beat against each name at some stage (probably Friday evening). Although you might just want a guide without a conclusion Joe for your purposes.

Will also do a write up for Soll (probably tomorrow afternoon).

Am glad Soll got in. Impressed with his jumping at Sandown.

First Ante post today on Soll was already on my pretty short list ,thought i’d get on before the rush He travels very well on a flatish track ,can see a big run .

He won’t make the cut.

Of course he will there won’t be a full strength field this year .

Honeydad I must apologize for doubting you on him getting in. Currently number 40, hope it’s lucky for us.

Hope they all return safely too.

I’m glad Soll got in but my concern is his jockey and the early pace. Nice to have a stayer on such a low weight though

And i disagree that On His Own is justifiably favourite. Understandably because of connections, but i wouldn’t justify it. Not completed in three of last six. Fell last year. If Cappa Bleu was Mullins horse it would be favourite.

I think Join Together might shorten up to about 8’s or 10’s on the day.

Whats your worry re-Soll`s Jockey Mark ? i have seen remarks about him before ,managed to get Bible Lord as far as Valentines in the Topham a few years back ,thats good enough for me !

Ruby Walsh is on On His Own and Ladbrokes have them at 6/1 for the race. That’s a very silly price, as is Seabass at 8/1 and Colbert Station at 9/1

Typical strangling of prices and rip-off city for the once a year punter who has no concept of value. The biggest day of the year in terms of putting your product in the shop window and you proceed to rip the eyes out of the punters. I would strongly advise backing two horses win only, rather than one horse each way. Imagine the joyous punter with £1 e/w on On His Own, staked £2, finished second and returns……………drum roll…………£2.50

Yahoo, where’s the party. Enough to give you the dry boak.

I keep looking for reasons Quel Esprit should be a 50/1 shot and can’t find any.

He’s a Grade 1 winner, and is entitled to still be improving over fences after just 9 Chases (he’s won 4 of those). He seems to have been around for a while but is only 9.

He raced with real enthusiasm in the Irish Hennessy last time, jumping for fun in a lovely rhythm till be blew up badly. I’m no breeding student but a friend who specialises in dosage stats says he has a good chance of staying the trip. His trainer thinks he’s a stayer.

He’s well capable of taking a prominent position early which should help keep him out of trouble and his jumping, touch wood, looks as if it will stand him in good stead over these fences.

He has a strong element of class (lacking in most of the field bar the aging top weight) and that rhythm he can drum up can be vital at Aintree for conserving energy . . . if he stays I can see nothing with a better chance and at the price I’m happy to gamble on his stamina.

He has just moved above Join Together to hit the top of my list driven up there by superb value

I’m with you here, QE has a lot of class and although he doesn’t show it sometimes, he could easily find the ammunition to be in contention at the business end- jumping is generally good, and should stay the extreme distance. Only concern is the weight, although NC went some way in dispelling that question last year. 50/1 is worth a go.

i’ve got a feeling this on his own could win by miles.

you look at last year and he’s hacking all over them on the second circuit, before taking a tumble at bechers.

that looked to me a horse that would have won that race by a furlong if he had stood up- and the opposition is very similar this year.

the horse oozes class and has a perfect pedigree for a national- his sire and dam’s stamina index are off the charts, so theres no problem about staying.

assuming he stays on his feet this time I could see him winning by a long long way, and rather than being too short right now, he could actually start a lot shorter on the day- could be a plunge horse.

Is this post an ‘I tip the hot favourite’ exclusive?

"Plunge horse" from 6’s? What price do you feel it could end up at? I’m strugging to see a GN jolly less than 6’s personally.