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I hope Grands Crus runs in the Gold Cup he is a natural over the fences and he has enough experience. It looks like a Gold Cup for the taking but the only doubt that I would have is if he will get 3m 2f around Cheltenham.
Andy: I wouldn’t worry about GC staying, the major point i’d worry about is his inexperience, novice against the big boys is a totally different kettle of fish! Just hope if he goes this route that he comes home safe and sound.
Think of the good novices that have attempted and failed in the GC; Beef or Salmon, Carvills Hill, Gloria Victis, Night Nurse, Gaffer. Learn from history; Dawn Run and Captain Christy were freakishly good, and Grand Crus is nowhere near that category
The entries are out today, 34 of them I believe. The most notable absentees are Planet Of Sound and Riverside Theatre.
And Finnian’s Rainbow gets an entry!
Just saying 2 mimutes ago I thought Finian’s Rainbow was more of a King George horse than a QMCC horse. Seems someone is thinking along the same lines if not now but in the near future.
I’m having a bit of debate with myself about Grand Crus who is beginning to look a better chaser than a hurdler.
If he wins the AON well the owner is keen to run and I’m not totally convinced this isn’t winable for him.
I reckon Kauto wasn’t far of as good as you could expect last year come March. Neither do I believe he’s within 10lbs of what he used to be and while he’s still a better horse than Long Run round here he will struggle big time because his stamina won’t last out.
Picking between Long Run and Grand Crus is very difficult. Unlike some hurdler Grand Crus has shown he’s ever bit as quick over fences as he was over hurdles. He gave Buck Bucks a bit of a race so the pace of the Gold Cup is hardly likely to bother him. he looks a faster horse than Long Run but like Kauto is a question of will his stamina hold out?
If it turn into a real slog the Synchronised enter calculation but assuming it doesn’t Gand Crus must have more than a fair chance of winning.
The thing is he’s 8/1 and that’s probably the price he should be if he wins the AON and beats the likes of Time For Rupert and Dirty Harry, not the price he should be when we don’t even know if he’ll run.
No wonder we got rich bookies.
Sounds like Long Run will be running in that too. I’m not sure he’ll be quick enough around 3 miles at Newbury though. I want the Gold Cup shortened to 3 miles this year because I’m fed up of this stupid slow Long Run animal. He’s not the champion. He’s getting beaten by a horse who’s just turned 12. He also can’t jump. Yet more than likely in March he’ll be a dual Gold Cup winner.
Everyone slagged off Best Mate but Best Mate is double the horse Long Run is.
I’d forecast with an 85% degree of confidence that Long Run’s jumping problems will not be cured – ever. He’s a long-backed horse who has trouble arching. When the pressure’s turned on he starts leaving his back legs in a fence – an energy-drain, awkward for his jock and an unseat waiting to happen.
Grands Crus a 7/1 chance races far too freely to see out the Gold Cup, imo.
Synchronised’s form, in all, doesn’t match that of a GC winner. He’d need to have found 20lbs improvement since last season imo – highly unlikely despite his convincing Lexus win.
Amazingly, we don’t know yet how good KS is this season. He looked to be coming to the end of his tether at Kempton and despite his Cheltenham record, there must be a ? over his ability to get home in March.
Weird Al’s overall form doesn’t match up to that of a GC winner but his first 2 runs of the season were more than creditable (failed to spark at Haydock according to jock) and has a fine record fresh. He bled in last year’s GC (first run on good) but won easily on good at Wetherby this season (never off bridle according to jock). At 25s, he’s the value for me.
On what I’ve seen so far this season, the most likely winner is Grands Crus currently available at 9/1 with Corals.
Kauto Star is likely to make the running which should set the race up and enable Grands Crus to settle and use his speed at the business end of the race. Kauto was dead on his feet at the end of the King George and Long Run would have outstayed him with another 50 metres. Long run has been the biggest dissapointment this year, as I hinted in my opening thread he had a very hard race in the Gold Cup and it may have left it’s mark. The Long Run of last season would have won the King George of this season, last year he was always travelling within himself but this year he was being hard ridden 3 out and although he was gaining on Kauto he was only staying on at one pace.
If Grands Crus wins his prep race in similar style to his earlier races I can see him going off favourite.
The Irish challengers sre just handicappers, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a bold show from Diamond Harry if he turns up,. Synchronised is far too short on what he has achieved and What a Friend looks the EW value at 40/1.
Much as I love Kauto Star, I could only have him as a place lay.1st Grands Crus 7/2 Joint Fav
2nd Long Run 7/2 Joint Fav
3rd What a Friend 25/1
4th Kauto Star 11/2Long Run 11/4 NRNB is a big price for me. His only problem for me is the liability sat on his back. Long Run unfortunately will always be judged by his bare form but he has a pretty average jockey flapping around. It’s not an excuse and you have to take that into account when backing him. I don’t think Long Run is a terrible jumper and if ridden correctly he can be very good so I think this can’t arch his back thing is a bit ott. I doubt a horse with a physical ailment is going to achieve what he has. Ruby Walsh on Kauto is a great example of how much difference a top class jockey makes to a horse. I think Long Run will probably win the Gold Cup again and if he had B Geraghty on board I would say he was a banker. Grand Crus would be the main danger and I think 8/1 NRNB is probably a very fair bet. With all due respect & as much as I have enjoyed the horse & everyone would be going mad I would be pretty disappointed if Kauto won the Gold Cup as a 12yo. It would be a great achievement for the horse & trainer but would only point out to me that it was a pretty poor Gold Cup.
Don’t think you can really say you want the Gold Cup to be a shorter distance it is what it is and what it always has been.I’ve backed Long Run to the nines before and heard the same old story before hand – he’s schooling excellently, his jumping’s improved, he jumps like a beast. It’s never happened, not even last March. If he runs like he did last March, he won’t win. Time for increased schooling, AND A NEW JOCKEY! Sam the snob lost his cool around the last couple on Boxing Day, and although he clearly wouldn’t have won, his lack of composure and overall skill over the last furlong really showed. Poor Barry needs a good mount for the Gold Cup. Robert Waley-Cohen, if you’re reading, you’re ruining your horse!
Fely: i Have read your post 3 times and still do NOT have a clue what you are saying or trying to say?
The more i look at this race the more i can’t allow myself to bet in it.
Long Run, without Kauto, would be a long distance winner of both the king george and betfair chase. However Kauto has been fantastic and been the only animal to put the champion to the sword.
All the other horses have been beaten with little valid excuses so for me it has to be Long Run with the extra two furlongs. He is however a dodgy jumper, ridden by an ok amateur at best and at 5/2 I just don’t think i can have him. I could play the ew game at large odds for Quito but i don’t like the fact that he has been hugely outpaced a few times this this year, however i do like that he seems to have stamina galore.
Tiny ew interest on him is about the only play i can justify.
Long run will probably win but i am happy to avoid the tremors and just sneer at the waley cohen smugness if he does.
Also gives me another reason to cheer kauto!!!
Usually I have a strong opinion but it’s waning and I’m beginning to think it’s an awful Gold Cup with almost every horse having a huge minus and we are going to see something unexpected winning it.
It’s been 14 years since Cool Dawn 25/1 outpointed the short priced fav Doran’s Pride who finished 3rd and we’re well due another turn up.
In my heart of hearts I hope it’s a great race and Kauto pulls of the near impossible but Walt Disney is unlikely to be at Cheltenham writing the script
So stuff it I’m going to stick lots of fiver & tenner bets over the coming weeks on Wierd Al who looks the only horse who possibly could improve and shock them.
Hi all
Re Weird Al – Agree appeals at 25/1 due to reasons other people have inidcated.
Also noticed last night on oddschecker that both Totesport and Betfred offer Weird Al at 25/1. Also both these firms have in addition to Ladbrokes also gone nrnb for this race…lets just hope there are no "shenanigans" around this…like what has been indicated around nrnb bets at Cheltenham in another thread
yorkiedips
The more i look at this race the more i can’t allow myself to bet in it.
Long Run, without Kauto, would be a long distance winner of both the king george and betfair chase. However Kauto has been fantastic and been the only animal to put the champion to the sword.
All the other horses have been beaten with little valid excuses so for me it has to be Long Run with the extra two furlongs. He is however a dodgy jumper, ridden by an ok amateur at best and at 5/2 I just don’t think i can have him. I could play the ew game at large odds for Quito but i don’t like the fact that he has been hugely outpaced a few times this this year, however i do like that he seems to have stamina galore.
Tiny ew interest on him is about the only play i can justify.
Long run will probably win but i am happy to avoid the tremors and just sneer at the waley cohen smugness if he does.
Also gives me another reason to cheer kauto!!!
Agree re the WC’s ‘smugness’. Whilst the amateur traditions are commendable and i do believe SWC should ride the horse even if a negative for his chances, I believe they ought to take a leaf from Nicholls and Smith in how to deal with defeat and victory in equal measures. And has anyone else read the LR/WC feature in the Racing Post 2012 annual? RWC states quite boldly that at least they know Kauto wont be a threat to LR anymore. LMAO !!!
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