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Maybe if 8-1 is good value for the King George, then 20-1 for the Gold Cup is also a good deal.
While your day of race bets show an admirable profit and your methodology clearly works for you in that sphere, your ante-post (ie those placed more than a week before the event) bets do seem to show considerably less returns and significantly less "value" compared to the SP.
Antepost bets are by their nature, at bigger prices than day of race bets, therefore they won’t win as often. But they do show an exceptional profit over the years, that’s very clear from my records. Been unlucky quite a few times in the last couple of years. Getting brilliant value, prices vastly bigger than SP, only for something to beat them on the day. These things happen. My Cheltenham antepost bets still made a profit this year, even with a few disappointments.
I don’t see how you can say my antepost bets are "significantly less value than SP. So clearly wrong (again).
Value Is EverythingMaybe if 8-1 is good value for the King George, then 20-1 for the Gold Cup is also a good deal.
Not for me Kasparov.
He’ll have to go very close to winning the King George to even turn up for the Gold Cup. And even if he does I don’t think he’ll stay 3m2f around a stiff track at a good pace. Ryanair would be my prefered Festival target if I owned Grands CrusValue Is EverythingGinger. Interesting comment you make on Synchronised being a below average winner of the Gold Cup. I would imagine you are going on Timeform ratings ? Steve Mason in the Racing Post takes the opposite view and says his rating was in keeping with the average rating of Gold Cup winners over the last deacde.
When I made those comments Ken, I hadn’t seen Timeform’s assessment of the race. But knowing how they rated the race beforehand, it’s not difficult to judge roughly how they’d rate it afterwards.
Can’t understand Steve Mason saying that. How does he justify it? Even allowing for Long Run’s win last year being over-rated and Kauto Star never running to his best Kempton form; can’t see any way Synchronised can be rated an average winner.
I think he justifies it by looking at the RP ratings given to previous winners. If you strip out Kauto Star, Denman, Long Run and Imperial Commander who I think most will say were from a golden age. The ratings given to the previous ten winners were
War Of attrition 173
Kicking King 177
Best Mate 172, 178, 176
Looks Like Trouble 173
See More Business 172
Cool Dawn 172
Mr Mulligan 174
Imperial Call 174On that basis the 175 given to Synchronised holds up pretty well, in fact only Best Mate and Kicking King received better ratings.
Ginger. Interesting comment you make on Synchronised being a below average winner of the Gold Cup. I would imagine you are going on Timeform ratings ? Steve Mason in the Racing Post takes the opposite view and says his rating was in keeping with the average rating of Gold Cup winners over the last deacde.
When I made those comments Ken, I hadn’t seen Timeform’s assessment of the race. But knowing how they rated the race beforehand, it’s not difficult to judge roughly how they’d rate it afterwards.
Can’t understand Steve Mason saying that. How does he justify it? Even allowing for Long Run’s win last year being over-rated and Kauto Star never running to his best Kempton form; can’t see any way Synchronised can be rated an average winner.
I think he justifies it by looking at the RP ratings given to previous winners. If you strip out Kauto Star, Denman, Long Run and Imperial Commander who I think most will say were from a golden age. The ratings given to the previous ten winners were
War Of attrition 173
Kicking King 177
Best Mate 172, 178, 176
Looks Like Trouble 173
See More Business 172
Cool Dawn 172
Mr Mulligan 174
Imperial Call 174On that basis the 175 given to Synchronised holds up pretty well, in fact only Best Mate and Kicking King received better ratings.
I see Ken, so Mason rates the performance average if you take the best four horses out of the equation.
Below is how Timeform rated all those horses in Chasers And Hurdlers at the end of each Gold Cup winning season. Not neccessarily in the Gold Cup itself. I’ve highlighted where I believe the Gold Cup performance rating was lower than the horse’s best of that year.
War Of attrition 169+
Kicking King 182, believe Gold Cup rating was much less, beat Take The Stand 163 fairly easily by 5 lengths.
Best Mate 173, 182 in my opinion over-rated, 176+ less in Gold Cup beat Sir Rembrandt 169 by 1/2 length.
Looks Like Trouble 176
See More Business 173
Cool Dawn 173
Mr Mulligan 169
Imperial Call 178
Synchronised has done very well to win a Gold Cup on good ground, given his lack of pace. Credit to him. However, his provisional Timeform rating is 168. Even taking Kauto Star, Denman and Imperial Commander out; Synchronised has (at this point) got a worse Timeform rating than all those listed above. Hope those who do believe Synchronised put up a good performance don’t come back and say "I told you so" IF he goes on to win the National. Synchronised could easily (imo) be rated with a "+" or "p" for improvement still likely once given a greater test of stamina. ie If Synchronised does put up an obviously good rating for example in the Grand National; that does not neccessarily mean the Gold Cup can be rated higher. Horses improve given their optimum conditions and Synchronised possibly hasn’t had them yet this season. A lot will depend on how the second, fifth and sixth do. Particularly the 6th, who has seemed thoroughly exposed up to now (The Giant Bolster and Time For Rupert also have some potential to improve from Cheltenham so are less good as guides to form).
If Knockara Beau goes on to put up a better performance than I gave him credit for at Cheltenham (not neccessarily win),
then
Synchronised can definitely be rated higher than I (and Timeform) give him credit for.
Can’t see how the Racing Post rates Synchronised better than Looks Like Trouble and Imperial Call’s performances in particular Ken.
Value Is Everything
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