2012 Gold Cup

I am not concerned at all. Rather luckily have 2 point bet on burton port from before christmas and have smashed into long run.

As it happens i saw what a friend as one of the bigger threats and Burton port too if still able and it simply confirms they are the tw big threats but he can beat them. Those ten pounds will make the winning margin a lot bigger!!!

Probably just watched this years first three thats all.

I like the odd conspiracy theory here and there, but this talk about BG wanting or letting Long Run win is a bit silly, especially for stable money. He ran with the Gold Cup or future in mind, which is understandable. The horse had been out for a long time, and he knew during the race that is retained its ability. I don’t think he’d want to compromise the horse after all the time and patience it has take to get it back on track.

No logic in lengthening his price Sea Pigeon?

I wouldn’t have seen any logic in cutting his price. If Long Run and Burton Port turn up at Cheltenham in the same form I’d expect Burton Port to be just as close and possibly beat him. He’d have beaten him with a more aggressive ride and and I don’t think the 10lbs would be enough to stop Burton Port if Barry had thrown the kitchen sink at him. Of course, Sam could have been harder on Long Run too, but when we take the hill into account and the extra 2 furlongs there wouldn’t be much in it.

Hopefully Burton Port will come out of the race sound and well, and if he reaches the Gold Cup in the same form that he chased Weapons Amnesty in, he’s the one to beat in my opinion.

Things just got a whole lot more interesting

Don’t get me wrong, I can see why he is favorite. He’s the reigning champ and had a decent prep today.

He’s the most likely winner at this stage but last year I feel that perhaps he didn’t motor up the hill, but rather the big two had already cut each other’s throats and ran out of gas, thus making Long Run’s finish look a bit more impressive than it actually was.

In another two furlongs he was beaten today.

My observations

Long Run looked fit & well had a beautiful shine on his coat
Long Run looked to be carrying some condition and NH has left plenty to work on, he only looked 85% fit and I expect him to improve 10 pounds or more from this race.
Long Run jumped well in the main (he fiddled a couple as usual but never looked like falling)

I have always rated BP as a good horse but he will need to improve at least a stone to beat LR. He looks a better bet for the national.

Sea Pigeon, I doubt he can improve as much as 10lbs. Personally I think he’s run to a career best today on a clear, consistent line through What A Friend and Tidal Bay (beat WaF by 3L more than the Gold Cup, Tidal Bay by 4L more), but I’d certainly say that he’s run to something like 174-ish and is more than capable of hitting 180 with an extra 2 1/2f, more patient ride, a month of preparation and a hill.

In a way, for me this was the best prep of the 4 reigning champions. Hurricane Fly simply confirmed his well-being, Sizing Europe beat a horse who wasn’t at the races and is perfect at his fences all the time, Big Buck’s beat a horse he’d already beaten, but Long Run jumped exceptionally well at all but 2 fences, and even those mistakes were minimal, and SWC only needed 5 strikes of the whip as opposed to nearly treble that in the Gold Cup, King George or Paddy Power. It’s also the first time he’s really been in a proper battle. People forget this horse is only 7 and probably still improving, and the jockey is too. Before today I was very worried about Long Run potentially being between me and a huge sum of money (I’ve backed the Big 4 at 134/1 and 50/1), but now I have no concerns at all, and actually, at 5/2 I now think he’s superb value. Should be 7/4 in my book.

In another two furlongs he was beaten today.

And so was Kauto Star at Kempton.

People always say this about horses who are closing at the end and get beaten a neck. ‘He would’ve won in a couple more strides’.

It’s really based on a myth. So many times I hear it and it’s simply not true most of the time. Horses idle when they get in front. You think Fingal Bay would’ve lost to Ballyrock in the Challow after he gained a 5 length lead that was cut down to 1 length by the line? You think Binocular would’ve won the 2009 Champion Hurdle in a couple more strides? Or For Non Stop in the Henry VI Chase vs Al Ferof? Or Wonder of Wonders in the Oaks vs Dancing Rain? So often you could do another 3 circuits and the order would still be the same. Wonder of Wonders getting beaten in the Oaks let me down a win of about £20,000. I was at the track on the day and didn’t even watch a replay of the race until 3 weeks ago, I was too devastated. But I watched the replay, and despite having felt desperately unlucky and unhappy at the ride Kieren Fallon gave her, actually I think they could have done another 17 circuits and it wouldn’t have made a difference.

Horses idle when they get left in front for a long time. SWC had Long Run in front for something like 3f today, which I’d say is probably the longest he’s ever been in front for before at the top level. And even when he got to the front, it’s a Cheltenham prep – SWC is hardly going to hit him 3 times more and try and get more out of him?

It’s like Alan King said re. Montbazon. ‘I said to Choc, I don’t care how well you’re going 2 out, just kick him on and teach him something’, and Long Run will probably have learnt something today.

He did scrape home and it was workmanlike. It’s not like he hacked up on the bridle is it?

That’s not to say it wasn’t a good performance.

I know what you mean, they’d probably call it a magnificent win!

I find it completely puzzling that I seem to be the only one giving write-ups on Synchronised.

We’ve all been talking about an unusually poor renewal for months, and a few people have talked up outsiders for an upset. I’ve dug high and low and it’s tough to find anyone in the thread who will even give Synchronised a shout.

This is a horse that can win the Welsh National off top weight, a horse that won the Lexus at the back end of last year, a horse that jumps as well as anyone around right now, a horse that’s vastly improving, a horse that has now proved he can act on any ground, a horse that has proved he’s got the speed to win over 3 miles and a horse that can stay forever.

He missed the Irish Hennessy, I don’t think that was by accident. I think JP and Jonjo realise they have a live contender on their hands.