Derby 2012

I like him to but i see him more as a 2000 guineas horse i do.

Also are there any decent french horses who may come over the race to.

Bobby i agree with you on Parish Hall i been saying he be a decent colt next year in 2yo summary thread.Though a bit shocked he not raced at a 1m yet on good ground a race like Racingpost trophy would be good for him.

And has anyone heard any news on Jungle Beat.Trained by Gosden and in the Tabor colours since a impressive debut win. i heard nothing about him on when he race next.

Well Parish Hall is no left field pick now!

Really impressed with him today. He’ll be even better over 10 and 12 furlongs next season.

Reckon he’ll have a crack at the Guineas first though.

He should go for a derby trail being a Montjeau no chance at 2000 guineas.

And well done on pick as well BB i think he be a very good horse at 1m2 1m4 next year.

Firstly may I wish you all a happy and a prosperous new year.

I have been through the Derby entries and looked at the antepost markets and after my own breeding analysis and what has been acheived as 2 year olds, I think the winner is most likely to come from the following:

Camelot: Winner of the Racing Post Trophy, trained by Aiden O’Brien. Possibly could also win the 2000 Guineas on the way to the Derby. He has both a lot of high class stamina influence and high class speed influence. The Racing Post Trophy win seems to have been acheived against other horses whose breeding suggests to me that at 3 yrs old they are more likely to be 8f to 10f horses so in my opinion he had no real stamina challenge in that race. Indeed he might find the Derby difficult because of his strong speed influences but his class could carry him through. He might get wound up in the preliminaries.

Parish Hall: Winner of the Dewhurst trained by Jim Bolger. Most likely route to the Derby will be to contest the 2000 Guineas but to me he is not bred like a 3 year old who would win the Guineas, also the RPR acheived when winning the Dewhurst was below 120. When that happens the Dewhurst winner seems unlikely to go on to win the 2000 Guineas. He appears in my analysis as a 12f plus animal, a bit like Sir Percy, but with Sadlers Wells duplications might be a 10f to 12f colt. However, will Jim Bolger actually send him to the Derby. It must be a question because of his actions in the run up to when New Approach won the race.

Mandaean: Winner of the 10f Group 1 in France when trained by Andre Fabre but has now been transferred to be trained for a top class middle distance campaign by Mahmood Al Zarooni. I think he has the right breeding to win the Derby but currently has no entry. I assume he will be entered in March. Most likely route will be a Derby trial.

Swedish Sailor: A good Yarmouth maiden winner trained by Mahmood Al Zarooni, has the breeding required but again no entry and may be treated as second fiddle to Mandaean. Probable route a Derby trial.

Mighty Ambition: A Newbury maiden winner who in my opinion has a good balance of stamina and speed trained by Mahmood Al Zarooni and holds a Derby entry. There are some questions as to whether he is more likely a 10f 3 year old rather than a 10f to 12f 3 year old.
However from his maiden others have gone on to win next time out. I have backed him (small stake) at big prices on Betfair but after the news of Mandaean being trained now by Al Zarooni his price has drifted so I can only assume that the Godolphin order is Mandaean first and then the rest. I guess he will go to a trial and if good enough then the Derby.

It is now only the last day of 2011 and there is 5 months to go. I am hoping that these colts train on without mishap and get there on the day. In my opinion they are the ones that have the breeding attributes required and have done the right things as 2 year olds.

Out of those in my new year post above I have now gone well off Mighty Ambition but of the other four I like most of all Swedish Sailor.

The only problem is each time he has been entered at the 5 day stage for a race when it gets to the 2 day entries he is taken out. He is now entered for the Newmarket Stakes on Saturday, I reckon if he gets taken out again then its the Lingfield Derby trial for him, unless Mandaean uses the Guineas and possibly the Irish Guineas which he was entered into late, as trials, and then Swedish Sailor could go to the Dante instead of Mandaean.

The trainer has said lately that Swedish Sailor is the "best in his yard" Unfortunately those words often get said by trainers in the same way jockeys are notorious for using the words "he’s the best I have ever sat on" so I have to be a bit wary of that.

When Oxx says he does not know how good his horses is you had better get something on.Beacuse if he does not know how good he was and is still willing to travel he must be good.