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Luck isn’t with Hanagan at present. If SDS claws another one back today and Ayr is rained off tomorrow, then it could be close. Then maybe SDS might change his mind about going to Australia.
On the other hand SDS doesn’t have any hot favs in his pipeline so he may struggle to find the extra winners.
Hanagan’s lead of 4 is a lot. He has 6 days left compared with SDS’s 4. To tie SDS needs 4-0,5-1,6-2 or 7-3. Not quite impossible. Most likely outcomes are probably about 4-3 to Hanagan for an overall lead of about 5 with a variance of about 7, sd of about 2.7. SDS odds should be about 20-1.
Hanagan now 5 ahead. But SDS is not giving up. He has about 12 rides on Wednesday after he gets off the plane and I reckon about 40 left till the end of the season, about the same total as Hanagan despite Hanagan’s extra day at Redcar tomorrow. At a strike rate of say 20% that’s 8 winners. Probably not enough but he could just sneak it if he gets say 8 winners to Hanagan’s 2.
Still about a 20-1 chance in my view though. Hanagan has some tasty rides at Redcar and I reckon he will probably have at least as good a book as SDS when they go head to head later in the week.
Take the 1.1 available on Hanagan.
So, as so often, the champ was the one with the most rides. It wasn’t a vintage year for Hanagan, but in fact he rode more often than last year. He benefited from lack of commitment, injury and suspensions of his four principal opponents.
Next year’s contest should feature the big 5 again. At current odds SDS and Moore look best value at 4.5, with a preference for SDS as Moore is not aiming for the title. But much depends on the Moore/Stoute/O’Brien relationships and how many top class rides Moore gets. Also it remains to be seen if SDS is up for it next year. Hanagan says he might take a rest. Fallon and Hughes I think will only give it a whirl if their early season goes well, and even then will be distracted by the Breeders’ Cup and other big races.
But it’s never as straightforward as one might think. Many of my forecasts went wrong. Nevertheless it has been a profitable exercise overall and my statistical modelling in the later stages identified some big anomalies. (But if Fallon had won I would have lost a lot of money.)
I hope readers did well out of the contest.
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