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Hanagan has drifted today – now 2/1 on Betfair. He might have expected to outscore Fallon today and didn’t, but maybe there is some other reason I am currently unaware of.
From the horse’s mouth (Hanagan)
The situation is really simple; if it happens that I’m champion again, then that’s great, but if not then I won’t lose any sleep about not being champion in 2011.
"The reason is that I won’t be going out to run myself into the ground like I did in the battle with Richard Hughes last year.
"For those that have backed me to be champion again, I will of course do my absolute best but I will not be cutting myself in half again because in the long run it does more harm than good."
Presumably that means no more late nights at Lingfield, which in fact were not particularly productive last year. It probably accounts for the price drift. However, I think would rather back Hanagan or Fallon than de Sousa (who is now fav) because of de Sousa’s likely totting up penalty.
And let’s not forget Hanagan is still riding a lot and still leading the race.
Fallon will get a ridiculously good set of bookings for Stoute and Cumani, who generally thrive towards the back end of the season. Still fancy him.
Fallon is quite a long way behind Hanagan now, 17 wins. A lot of ground to make up unless he gets exceptional rides. Hughes managed to erode Hanagan’s lead last year but he had the Hannon two year olds and a helicopter. I doubt if Fallon will do it.
Guardian:
Thanks to the vicissitudes of racing, the Flat jockeys’ championship is, even in August, intriguingly poised for a thrilling denouement. It may be the least confusing battle for some time, given the Horsemen’s Group plan to restructure the competition to include only races worth a certain amount of money and with the British Horseracing Authority lacking the gumption to intervene.
Paul Hanagan, who last year became the first northern-based rider to take the title since Kevin Darley in 2000 and only the second since Elijah Wheatley in 1905, leads this year on 94 winners. Four behind is Silvestre de Sousa, a 30-year-old Brazilian also based in the north, whose career has taken the sharpest of upward trajectories in the past three years.
Ryan Moore, three times the champion, was on 84 when brought down in a pile-up at Goodwood 10 days ago, causing him to break his right shoulder and thumb and ending his title hopes. Kieren Fallon, who won the latest of his six trophies in 2003 and who, at 46, would be the oldest winner since Lester Piggott in 1982, stands on 81. Last year’s narrow runner-up, Richard Hughes, has 71.
Richard Fahey, the Yorkshire-based trainer who employs Hanagan, is not enjoying the sustained success in 2011 that last year went much of the way to ensuring his stable jockey led from day one and amassed a final tally of 191, two more than Hughes, in a duel that ran until the final day.
Hanagan has also been affected by the job merry-go-round: when Neil Callantook on increased riding duties in Newmarket, Kevin Ryan – by far Hanagan’s strongest outside supporter in 2010 – reacted by making an overarching commitment to Phillip Makin.
De Sousa’s burgeoning career benefited from increased patronage by Mark Johnston’s yard, due to Joe Fanning breaking his heel in late June and a parting of the ways with Greg Fairley, whom the BHA announced in May was one of five jockeys charged with conspiring to commit a corrupt or fraudulent practice, an allegation vehemently denied by Fairley.
Johnston is full of praise for De Sousa and prefers to stick with a winning formula but
Fanning, a stalwart of the stable, plans to return this month. This could affect De Sousa’s supply chain, although he boasts one of the stronger diversification of sources among the title-chasers.
Fallon is hoping to fill many of the vacancies left by Moore’s injury and he has started August best. But his key supporter, Luca Cumani’s operation, has not been prolific this season.
Hughes, who has finished second for the past three years, declared in late June that "any prospect of winning the jockeys’ championship is gone" after incurring a seven-day ban for careless riding and voluntarily declining some engagements for fear of missing the Sussex Stakes mount on the now-retired Canford Cliffs.
Yet, although he stands a daunting 23 winners adrift of Hanagan, the leader’s total is not unassailable and Richard Hannon, Hughes’s retaining trainer, continues in fecund form. Unlike last year the northern circuit will be torn between Hanagan and De Sousa, enabling no rallying around one of their own against the southern-based Hughes during the season’s frantic final weeks.
The hidden threat to De Sousa and Hughes is their propensity for getting suspended. Were Hughes to incur two more bans for interference prior to 12 September, an additional suspension of up to 14 days would follow under the maligned "totting-up" system that supposedly tackles repeat offenders.
De Sousa’s situation is not so immediately perilous but he has been banned for eight days in August alone. He risks handing a crucial advantage to Hanagan and Fallon, whose punishments in the last six months – for whip and interference offences – total five and four days respectively. Moore, incidentally, had incurred zero penalties during that time, exploding the notion that such imposts are inevitable. There may be three more months of this drama to run but it can already count on high viewing figures.
Fallon is pretty much out of the race now barring an injury to Hanagan. He has admitted he will ride abroad if he can so he will probably miss the last week of the UK season in Australia. Effectively he is about 20 behind, which is a lot extra to get in about 10 weeks.
The Guardian likes Hughes but I doubt if he will be bothered to go for it this year with the threat of totting up overhanging and the likelihood that he would fall just short even after an all-out effort.
De Sousa has drifted a bit. He seems the main threat to Hanagan but also has the totting up possibility and the return to action of Joe Fanning to contend with. These have been known about for some time though so I don’t see why they would affect his price yesterday.
Hanagan gives an interview in the RP today. Not a lot new – he has cut his schedule slightly but is still riding at least as frequently as the others. He seems like a rational person. I suspect he will go flat out for the last ten days of the season if necessary but will be hoping to have built up a big enough lead by end September to demotivate his rivals from trying to catch him.
Fallon still hanging on with a few winners every week and now I see he is favourite to be top jockey at York. But I don’t think he will win because:
1. His schedule is quite gruelling with rides in both the North and South, and he is not young for a jockey.
2. He is likely to ride abroad towards the end of the season.
3. He is a long way behind the other two main contenders.
4. Not all trainers want to use him as a jockey.
5. If it comes to a showdown in Doncaster on the last day, my guess is Hanagan and or de Sousa will get better rides there. Fallon might not even turn up if he has to go to Australia for Luca Cumani.
As of today Fallon is not a long way behind the main contenders.Like four behind DeSouza.
Yes Fallon seems to be making a determined effort. A slightly odd
workload this week though with two days off followed by three double shifts with Folkestone, Brighton and Salisbury in the mornings and Kempton in the evenings. I am not sure how he gets from A to B but it looks pretty gruelling if you don’t have a helicopter or at least a driver. Perhaps somebody could let us know his transport arrangements.Fallon and de Sousa have been taking more rides than Hanagan these last two weeks. This is partly due to Hanagan riding in Europe on weekends. However, Hanagan is conserving his energy for a sprint finish (see Guardian, which follows this competition very well), having learned from his exhausting battle last year.
If we assume a Poisson distribution for wins with a probability of a win at 15% per ride and 300 rides to the end of the season for each contender we are talking about 45 winners expected each with a variance of 45. The difference between 2 riders would have a variance of 90, or a standard deviation of about 9.5. So a rider 10 behind the other would have about a 1 in 6 chance of overhauling him.
Of course it’s not that simple for a host of reasons that are fairly obvious but it does suggest that Fallon and de Sousa at odds of less than 5-1 are not very good value. In particular I would lay Fallon at current odds of less than 4.0 on Betfair.
I have been puzzling over Fallon’s continuing market strength. It must rest on his recent form and a feeling that it will continue. His workrate and strike rate have been impressive and I suppose he could claw back Hanagan’s lead at a rate of 2 per week if he keeps it up.
But… he also has to beat de Sousa whose chances of avoiding suspension increase as each day passes…..he has to keep up an exceptional work rate without burn out……..Hanagan will fight to retain the title if it is close …….Fallon is due to go to Australia later on in the season.
It’s not at all impossible for Fallon to win but I still think it’s improbable. The next three days could be interesting. Fallon will be going all out and has some short-priced horses. I don’t think he will make much of a dent on Hanagan’s lead but you never know. Perhaps he will give up if he doesn’t get many winners more than Hanagan or perhaps a clawback of say 4 winners will spur him on.
Kasp – do you have idea how close SDS is to a totting up ban? When will he be in the clear? Cheers!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
I don’t know exactly, Jonibake, but I think he is a 1 or 2 day suspension away. I had expected this to happen before the end of the season, but he only has to survive another 8 weeks now so there is a chance he won’t get one. Also he might have modifed his behaviour to avoid a ban, because when there was no championship to go for he probably wasn’t quite so careful.
However, Hanagan seems to be getting some good rides at present, better than de Sousa judging by recent odds. Fallon and Hanagan drew 2-2 today so the Fallon charge seems to have lost a bit of momentum.
It’s a rather weird competition in many ways, especially as it is hard to tell how committed the participants are. However, it boils down to numbers really. It has little to do with jockey skill except insofar as the best jockeys usually get to ride the best horses. Basically the winner will be the one who gets the most short odds rides. For example, most of all three contenders’ winners have come at odds below 4-1 and 7 of Hanagan’s last ten winners have been odds on. This makes overall strike rates not especially relevant and also means that my Poisson model overestimates volatility of scoring. Offsetting this is the possibility of unmodelled events like injuries.
A slightly low scoring week for the principal contenders, but Fallon has now overtaken de Sousa.
Bookings for all three are very full next week so it looks like they are all trying to win. I still think the Fallon challenge is too late to claw back a double digit deficit. It is rather as if Hanagan has a twelve stroke lead with three rounds to go in a golf tournament.
Hananagn now 16 and 17 ahead of the other two. That’s about 3 weeks’ worth of winners with 8 weeks left. It’s all over barring injury or other catastrophe for Hanagan. Hanagan is still getting some tasty rides. Today he was at Carlisle for 3 short odds winners while Fallon was battling it out with the other big names at Doncaster.
Surprisingly Fallon is
much
shorter odds than de Sousa. Fallon should be shorter because of the totting up issue with de Sousa. Also de Sousa hasn’t scored well lately and his stable is out of form. However, you can get over 30-1 on Betfair for SDS. Not bad in my opinion as there must still be a chance of a Hanagan injury and a fair chance SDS can overhaul Fallon.
Another low scoring few days. As the clock runs down Hanagan’s chances of winning increase. However, he is still keeping up a good workrate, including a trip to Ffos Las tomorrow. This is rational I think. If he can demotivate the other two by getting a big lead he should have a fairly relaxing October.
At last Fallon’s odds have moved up to something sensible – about 8 on the exchange. But personally I reckon 15 is about right – 5% chance of catastrophe for Hanagan plus a few percent chance of Fallon riding lots of winners.
SDS has moved back down to about 18, which look about right , maybe a bit low.
Still waiting for Fallon odds to reflect reality, but in the meantime Hughes is starting to come back into the edge of contention. He could overtake SDS and Fallon if he finishes strongly but would need an injury to Hanagan in order to win, so it might be a hollow victory. But at 100-1 + you never know.
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