2011 Flat Jockeys Championship

There has been a slight loss of form this week for Hanagan. His strike rate has slipped back to 19% – the same as Moore and Hughes. However, he is still riding more frequently than the others so his lead should increase. He is outscoring them in the ratio 3:2 so he should get an unassailable lead at around 150 with the others on about 100 some time around late September.

Hanagan 59, Moore 50. Moore’s quintuple at York has seen his odds slashed to around 6/4. By itself I would say this is an overreaction. However, Moore does seem to be doing a lot better than he was at the start of the season partly because he is riding more frequently. Furthermore, he will almost certainly do better than Hanagan at Ascot.

After Ascot it may be a different picture. Moore won’t get a lot more O’Brien short-priced horses and Hanagan will be plugging away in small field handicaps up north.

I think Hughes will probably drop out of serious contention unless something nasty happens to the prime contenders. SDS is probably the best of the outsiders.

So it looks like the market has got it more right than me so far. I was too negative on Moore based on his early form. I think he has maybe a 40% chance now, with Hanagan a bit over 50%.

Thanks JJM for contributing to the discussion. I think it’s fair to say that Moore and Hughes will do better later in the season, as they usually do. However, Hanagan has a higher workrate. He is likely to have about 700 more rides this season compared with about 550 for Moore and maybe 600 for Hughes if he decides to compete.

It’s clear that Moore is not going for the championship at full throttle. He skipped some booked evening rides at Kempton last week and has taken a few days off this week. This might not prevent him from winning overall, but it is a sign, I think, that he has bigger fish to fry. As you say, he has the advantage of riding a few O’Brien favourites but I doubt if that will amount to much more than about ten additional winners.

Hanagan has been through a very bad patch which has clearly damaged his chances. But if he can keep his strike rate above 15% he can still win. Two winners today suggest he hasn’t entirely lost momentum.

Hughes was falling behind at one stage but he is back in contention and I think has a fair chance of catching the other two. He should gain on Hanagan at the back end of the season as he did last year.

Hanagan 61, Moore 56, Hughes 50.

My odds now: Hanagan 6/4, Moore 6/4, Hughes 5/1.

Hughes has drifted very badly today – out to 20/1 on Betfair -despite two winners and the appearance of remaining in contention. I am not sure why although I notice a twitter comment that he has given up. Maybe he has written something in his newspaper column.

The Guardian confirms Moore’s lack of motivation:

Moore, now 27, has been odds-on to regain the title since he was top rider at Royal Ascot a fortnight ago, but he then took his wife, Michelle, and their two children on a five-day holiday to Majorca, hardly the action of a man intent on cutting back the lead established by the reigning champ, Paul Hanagan. "I wouldn’t have done three years ago," he says, "but, since Toby’s been born, I haven’t done the workload that I would have done."

On Tuesday, his father, Gary, a trainer, wanted him to ride at Brighton. "Bad prize money, bad racing, I just decided not to go. I thought, ‘stay at home with the kids’." Things have clearly moved on since 2005, when one trainer said Moore had to be put on suicide watch if he went three days without riding a winner.

"I’m lucky I can decide not to, right now, but it’s disappointing in some respects. I’d rather be wanting to go racing to ride some decent horses but it just doesn’t seem to be happening."

Moore is widely seen as the jockey who would be champion in a normal season. he has fallen short twice in the past five years, both times having missed chunks of time through injury. If he gets a clear run this time, most observers will be surprised if the title goes elsewhere.

It is not a prospect that concerns him, however. Of Hanagan, now four wins clear before last night’s card at Beverley , he says: "Best of luck to him. He works very hard. There’s a lot of lads that seem to want to give it a crack and they should do. They should be ambitious, want to do their own things. It just doesn’t suit me at the moment, not with the way things are. I’ve got family and good horses to ride and they’d be the main two options at the minute."

Moore could still win almost by default if Hanagan’s strike rate stays below par and SDS doesn’t get enough rides. However, I would want better than evens before backing him.