Melbourne Cup 2010

The AJC Derby’s all over provided Bart runs Faint Perfume, who’s sired by the horse who got my interest in Racing started. It’s great for Shamardal to have a filly of her quality already.

I think the Randwick Guineas field is shocking for a Group 1 mile race. Manhattan Rain should have stayed in training for this opportunity.

Some of those horses with those ratings shouldn’t be allowed to run.

From a Melbourne Cup point today:

Shoot Out won the Randwick Guineas – may go to the AJC Derby, as he’s a High Chaparral, but I reckon Cox Plate would be the spring aim.

Rock Classic won the Australian Guineas (upsetting hot favourite Denman for Bart), I can’t see him heading that way, he looks more a sprinter-miler type, could possibly stretch to 2000m. Very promising though.

Zipping finally won a Group 1 at 8yo (after placing in two Cox Plates and running 4th in two Melbourne Cups). He beat Sirmione, who is no 3200m horse.

There were four brilliant Melbourne Cup runs, if you can have brilliant Melbourne Cup runs in March.

First was Moatize, who flew home in the Australian Cup and is now headed to Sydney for possibly the Ranvet, the BMW and the Sydney Cup. As you said Gerald, the only query is whether Bart can keep him injury-free. He should.

Second was Precedence, who I declared a certainty for the Sydney Cup before I saw Moatize’s run. He’s been gelded since his last campaign (where he showed promise but he was inconsistent). He’s a Zabeel, and he’ll run 3200m. And he’s trained by the master, Bart Cummings. His 7 length win over 2000m was scintillating, his turn of foot extraordinary.

Third was Linton, who ran 3rd in the Australian Guineas. It is only his first preparation, and he should improve as the distances increase. He flew home out wide at Flemington, and he has plenty of scope. He is now equal favourite for the Cup with Sportingbet.

Fourth was a lightly raced Zabeel 3yo named Zabrasive, who flew home in the Randwick Guineas. He is one of the nominal tips for the AJC Derby, and he is one you have to keep a big eye on.

Yeah the question is whether he goes for 2010 or 2011.

Just a word of warning – when they bought C’est La Guerre, they kept saying he wouldn’t be aimed at the 2008 Cup, that it was all preparation for 2009.

However, he ended up in the race, and ran an unlucky 3rd.

I’d be surprised if Linton wasn’t in the race, as he looks the most likely to end up at the race with Efficient. The other two Lloyd had aimed at the race last year won’t be running – well, C’est La Guerre might, but he’s back across the Tasman now. Zipping will most likely be retired at the end of this campaign.

You have to remember as well that Moatize had to qualify for 2008, he was pushed throughout that prep (and it was still effectively his first prep, as he started racing in February, ran in March, April, May, June, had a let up but came back to win a maiden in August, ran throughout September and October attempting to qualify, finally qualified 3 days before and I reckon he’d had enough).

If he had been in the 2009 race, he wouldn’t have won methinks. The pace was too slow. What he needs is to be further back than he was in 2008, but a similar sort of speed. It isn’t normally as slow as last year, but you never know.

P.S – Warringah had his first run today since his last in the Melbourne Cup. He ran 40 lengths last in a 2000m G3 at Randwick. Something’s not right there.

Meanwhile, trainer Brian Smith is confident promising stayer Hume can make a full recovery from a leg injury which threatens his racing future.

Hume, who was in work progressing towards the Brisbane winter carnival, sustained a tendon injury which will require a lengthy spell.

"It’s a strained tendon in his off-front leg but he should be able to race again," Smith said.

"I doubt he’ll be back for the spring and the longer we give him off the better."

The rising seven-year-old, who cost $22,000 at a Lloyd Williams dispersal sale, won the Group Three Tattersall’s Cup (2200m) at Eagle Farm in June.

The Zabeel gelding was then runner-up to Kiwi stayer Castle Heights in the Listed Grafton Cup (2350m) in July which opened the door for Smith to send him interstate for the spring.

Hume had two starts in Sydney, finishing sixth in the Group Two Hill Stakes (1900m) at Rosehill in September before failing on a heavy track when 15th to Speed Gifted in the Group One The Metropolitan (2400m) at Randwick in October.

Smith, who had Melbourne Cup dreams with Hume, sent him on to Victoria where he started three times.

His best effort was finishing second to subsequent Melbourne Cup winner Shocking in the Group Three Lexus Stakes over 2500m at Flemington, also in October.

Hume was sent home to spell for a winter campaign following his last-start fifth to Sterling Prince in the Group Three Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2500m) at Flemington in November.