- This topic has 791 replies, 32 voices, and was last updated 14 years ago by
.
-
Posts
-
I’m trying to work out which ones have the right figures for the winner, whilst there is also a concern about which ones will go. The two don’t necessarily coincide.
Quite a few good stayers in Japan. For example, the entire 16 runner field received a RPR of 102+ in the G2 2m2f Stayers’ Stakes.
Need to narrow the Japanese down a bit. Both Delta Blues and Pop Rock were trained by Katsuhiko Sumii. He was also the trainer of Vodka, but I think she retired after the Japan Cup.
The only other two horses of his I could find were Triumph March and Tosen Captain. Don’t think Tosen Captain is suitable, but maybe Triumph March is.
Fails on CMPI, with a figure of 1.10 being outside the 0.5-1 range, but I’ll let him off as he has more stamina points than speed points.
Conduit Mare Profile is 5-4-8-10-1, so he has 9 speed points and 11 stamina points.Races to look out for are
1m7f G2 Hanshin Daishoten, just after Cheltenham
2m Tenno Sho Spring, end of April/beginning of May
1m4.5f G2 H’cap Meguro Kinen, end of MayMy last post, as I’m put off by people calling each other names.
112 Donativum
110 Asset
106 Age Of Reason
100 Jose Adan
100 Furnace
100 River Tiber
99 Sugar Ray
92 Night HourActually took the trouble this afternoon to look at their form.
Some of them ARE sprinters or milers.
Some of them haven’t run for a while.
Just leaves Age Of Reason, who doesn’t seem to have the right running style, so the list of Godolphin geldings gets reduced to zero.Vodka is still racing Gerald but she retires after the DWC.
As for Japan runners – if Australia will let them in they might have a chance. They havent had a runner allowed in for years!
I’m really hoping Cloudy’s Knight is pointed to this race, assuming he stays healthy. Even though he has done well on synthetics, he’s really a turf horse. There simply aren’t enough stayers’ races for him in the states-the longest graded race is 1 3/4 miles, and the longest stakes is 1 7/8 miles. As good as he is at 12-14f, I think he’d be even better at 2 miles.
Is the Gallant Fox still the only 12f+ graded stakes on dirt outside of the Belmont Miss Woodford?
They really really do need to up the Jockey Club back up to 2m and make it a proper race again
Is the Gallant Fox still the only 12f+ graded stakes on dirt outside of the Belmont Miss Woodford?
They really really do need to up the Jockey Club back up to 2m and make it a proper race again
Gallant Fox S. isn’t graded
.
The only graded stakes at 12f+ on dirt/AW:
Santa Anita: Tokyo City Cup (gr. III), $100,000g, 4&up, 12f.
Belmont Park: Belmont S (gr. I), $1,000,000g, 3yo, 12f.
Breeders’ Cup Marathon (gr. III), $500,000g, 3&up, 14f.CK is eligible for two of those.
Tell you what Gerald, I would strongly fancy Oken Bruce Lee for this is the Japanese horses could get in with a minimum of fuss.
He looks perfect for this
I’m just wondering Halfway whether any other Japanese trainers apart from the previously mentioned one would make the voyage.
As the horse came second in the Japan Cup, isn’t it likely to be aimed at it again?
Anyway, if you fancy a bet, he’s already in the market.
I don’t envisage Oken Bruce Lee making a detour in Melbourne before the Japan Cup.
Looking back at Crime Scene’s runner-up finish last year, I have been studying the result and have succumbed to inexperience as a punter IE. no idea how he ran so close to winning. Placement in running, perhaps? When Viewed and Alcopop strike trouble from midfield and Mourilyan – probably the highest rated from the race in hindsight – has to weave through traffic from the tail, Crime Scene didn’t need to be the second, or fourth, or sixth best horse to land a blow. Smart tactics and the inevitable bad luck from those behind him does the trick.
Hi everyone,
I’ve been reading this post for a while – since the day after the Cup actually – but I’ve decided it is time for me to post my thoughts here.
I’m an Australian, and while I’m about to head off to study journalism at uni after working as a junior form analyst with one of our biggest corporates for the past year (I’m only 19). I love the Melbourne Cup, and I will try to come in every couple of weeks to see what others say and to give my thoughts.
Firstly, MDeering, I agree completely about Oken Bruce Lee. They will send their second stringers, not their best chances for the Japan Cup. I’d love to see Dream Journey down here. A horse I haven’t heard from for a while, who I thought could have been competitive, was Roc De Cambes. Not sure if he is still running.
The Japanese will be back this year, Peter McGauran (who is a former MP, now head of Aushorse) is a good lobbyist!! And the EI threat has surely passed.
In regards to Crime Scene, I believe there were three factors as to why he got so close. Firstly, he had an impeccable second up record, and he was second up into the Cup. Secondly, the blinkers seemed to switch him on. And thirdly, and most importantly, McEvoy rode him perfectly. The fence that day was like quicksand, the inside was at least 5 lengths slower than the ground about two off the fence.
In terms of Godolphin, something always appears in Dubai which could have a good chance. I thought Age of Reason would have been a good chance last year, but he didn’t come.
In my opinion, the list of imported horses who are now with Australian trainers is the strongest it has been in many years. David Hayes has Changingoftheguard (who apparently hasn’t settled in very well) and (Our) Aqaleem, who is still lightly raced. David Hayes has gone off the boil a little bit since his amazing season in 2006-2007, but Lindsay Park has always gone well with imported horses, ever since David’s father Colin was in charge and they had horses like At Talaq, Beldale Ball, Almaarad, Jeune, etc. Lee Freedman has Speed Gifted, as well as Doctor Fremantle (who I believe is a big chance of doing very well over here). Freedman may also have Alandi, Mourayan and Above Average, although that isn’t confirmed. Then you have Scintillo coming here as well, as well as horses who haven’t done too much like Warringah, Martial Law, Stand to Gain…it’s amazing.
And on top of that, we currently have what we believe to be one of the best 3yo crops in Australia since at least 1995-1996, which produced horses like Saintly, Nothin’ Leica Dane, Filante and the Big O, Octagonal.
We are having great success with the High Chaparral progeny, especially So You Think and Monaco Consul. There is still a query over whether they could run a strong 3200m, but to even have them in the race would be a bonus.
I have to be honest, the one thing that in my opinion would finally put the race on a truly global stage would be to have American representation, and frankly I hope the VRC really tries to get an American horse down for the Cup. I know they aren’t as stamina based, and 3200m is unheard of, but it really would make it special.
At the moment, five horses I’d watch are:
So You Think – I love this boy, I declared him a future Melbourne Cup horse and even a potential WFA star after his maiden win, and I backed him at 150-1 for the Cox Plate, which he won, query at the trip but has the Bart Cummings factor
Doctor Fremantle – provided he brings his European form to Australia
Prince of Wales – Michael Moroney’s second string 3yo behind Monaco Consul, he’s been promising so far and he looks a nice horse
Mr Clangtastic – a bit of a selection out of left field, he was an improving stayer last preparation, even starting favourite in the G1 Metropolitan run at Randwick, I may be biased as my family owns horses with the stable but he could improve
Leica Larrikin – another out of left field, he is a full brother to 2005 Melbourne Cup 4th placegetter Leica Falcon, this boy has raced really greenly at the few starts he has had, but he’s another one who is on the way up and could do somethingI’ll pop back in soon, love the discussion!
Andrew
Wow, thanks for that Andy. I’ll look up a couple of the horses you mentioned. I have a very restrained MC book consisting of just Hume and Naval Escort. I hadn’t reckoned that So You Think might go for the MC.
By the way, I hope you had a barbelicious Australia Day.
News here in Britain is that Godolphin[/color:3pozm80y] have just bought the Cesarewitch winner, Darley Sun. What do people reckon will be the programme for him, after the Ascot Gold Cup?
Doctor Fremantle – provided he brings his European form to Australia
Welcome to the forum, Andy, and a very nice opening post.
Doctor Fremantle is far too quirky for my liking and I’d bet on him being a serial disappointment down under.
Gerald – I’m actually quite glad he’s gone to them. Their record with stayers is impeccable. I’ll happily back him for the Gold Cup ante-post over Patkai. Surely he’d be lumbered with top-weight in the Melbourne if he won at Ascot. Given they’ve done well with handicappers like All The Good and Crime Scene there wouldn’t be much point sending him? They’ll just send another couple of handicappers and run Darley Sun in the Henry VI, Ascot Gold Cup, Doncaster Cup and then the Prix du Cadran?
Henry II. Think of Eleanor Of Aquitaine and Who Wants To Be A Millionaire.
I was just thinking Zarkava that after running in the Ascot Gold Cup there isn’t much prestige in the Prix Du Cadran. Ain’t going to say anything against the Doncaster Cup, as it has always been one of my favourite races of the year.
There have been some St Leger/Cesarewitch types win the Melbourne Cup, but it seems a race that is suited to 10-12f types, as the pace disappears as they turn away from the home straight.
On the one hand, Godolphin seem to be looking for horses that are well handicapped or that they think may be suited by the race, but on the other they are keen to support the race, that they sponsor, and Australian racing in general, by sending a couple of horses every year, and maybe they’ll send a marquee horse for the 150th running even if they think it doesn’t have any lbs in hand of the handicapper.
Sorry, rather a long sentence for 3 o’clock in the morning.
- Total Posts 17716
Doc Freemantle – I’d think he would be more of a WFA type in Oz. Will be heftily handicapped for the Cups.
So You Think – No hope of being a Cups winner for mine. That’s if he’s even racing next Spring.
Mourayan – This is the one that creates most interest. He has the profile of a few others to already perform very well downunder. Could be the biggest improver among the exports.
Darley Sun – Not for the Cups. AGC programmes are notorious leadups for Cups horses.
Of the Aussie three year olds I have never made any secret of my affection for Shamoline Warrior. Just finding his feet at longer trips before a late scratching from the Derby in the Spring due to a cold. I hear he’s working along well at Flemington towards a late Feb debut with the AJC Derby in mind. A real Gr1 stayer this fellow and I think he would have blitzed Monaco Consul last November. Weight may be his problem come MC 2010.
Not sure an American runner will ever add much to the MC. The last one was many years ago and ran well for Bart Cummings ( who else ). Congressman might have been his name. Interesting to see the Ascot Cowboys have entered Cannonball for the Lightning at Flemington.
I think it was Rosedale in 1987.
In regards to So You Think, Bart has said he is likely to race on as a 4yo.
The Melbourne Cup won’t add much to him from a stallion point of view, but the High Chaparral’s do need ground and with Bart training, it is very possible he could be the next Saintly.
I do really like Mourayan’s profile, he definitely looks the right type for an imported horse to succeed here.
Darley Sun won’t be competitive here – he looks too much of a plodder. Of recent European runners, he looks more like a Honolulu style of horse. And Honolulu (apart from being part of the O’Brien trio that went too hard in front) was simply too slow.
As someone else said here earlier, the European horses that succeed here are the ones with 10f-12f, even 14f, form.
The only real exception to the rule was Persian Punch, and in both the Cups where he ran 3rd, there was an extraordinarily strong tempo from the outset and he was ridden perfectly.
But Give the Slip, Central Park, Media Puzzle, Vinnie Roe, Bauer, Purple Moon, Beekeeper, even Vintage Crop all had form over 10-14 furlongs.
The difference as well is obviously finding that horse who is well weighted, but in recent years the weight scale for the Cup has been significantly depressed so it doesn’t overly matter much anymore.
There is a horse making his debut on Friday, at the country racecourse of Goulburn, which many believe has the potential to be a Cups horse this spring. His name is Hood, and he is a Shamardal half brother to our former good stayer Tie The Knot. He is being aimed at the AJC Australian Derby in early April, and then will be aimed at the Cups if all augurs well. He does look an exciting prospect though.
P.S – I had a very barbelicious Australia Day
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.