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I remember backing unbeaten Racing Post Trophy, and comfortable Dante winner, Motivator at 9/2 on Derby Day morning. Ever since, that is the benchmark by which I look incredulous at ridiculously short AP prices over the winters.
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TTC, I do exactly the same.
8/1 Shergar for The Derby AFTER he won ten lengths at Sandown in April as a 3yo is a big value benchmark for me against these risible quotes for 2yos who often just won a maiden.
8/1 El Gran Senor AFTER he won the Group 1 Dewhurst is another.
And though AR Dennis were probably a bit dopey in laying me 20/1 after Salsabil had won a Group 1 in France that’s a third.
CAS’s 25/1 Galileo after he won his maiden by 14 lengths is another excellent one.
Modern-day ante-post quotes would have embarrassed bookmakers of yesteryear.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Farcical that any aiden horse who wins well is single figures for classics especially when so many of his so called second strings win group ones. The way horses are campaigning now makes it harder to spot potential champions. Enable at Newcastle,Japan at listowel I think it was etc. Very few seem to follow the traditional route and more and more horses now seem to make big leaps from 2 to 3 than before or am I imagining it.
Galileo came along quite early in O’Brien’s career at Ballydoyle.
If he had been a few years later, might they have gone down the Guineas route with him? Like they did with Camelot, Australia etc.
I seem to recall O’Brien claiming Galileo had enough speed for a July Cup. Which might have been just talking the horse up – but if he really thought so, it seems odd to have not gone for the Guineas.
“I seem to recall O’Brien claiming Galileo had enough speed for a July Cup.”
He definitely said that about Hawk Wing too CAS, before the Guineas nightmare…..before running him in The Derby!
“more horses now seem to make big leaps from 2 to 3 than before or am I imagining it.”
If you are imagining it Mickey, I am too. I am a bit of an old fart I suppose, but I like the Classic winners to have been pattern race winners at 2yo. It upsets my brains need for order when horses like Snowfall are also-rans at 2 and superstars at 3.
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Glad it’s not just me. Love only third in the fillies mile. Whatever happened to the first two. Poetic flare nowhere in the dewhurst. And now of course snowfall with the most dramatic of improvement I can remember since the days of soba.
Loved the days when the dewhurst was the race of the season.O’Brien fillies in particular are to be feared in their Classic seasons, no matter what their previous runs amount to. Peeping Fawn springs to mind. An utterly bizarre profile for such a brilliant filly. As for Homecoming Queen – that Guineas cruise was just as odd.
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Just look at the prices for Cheltenham 2022 even compared to the 2021 prices at the same stage
When you think monkfish was 12s for the RSA
Appreciate it and ferny hollow both well over double figures for supreme/ballymore
Champ and minella indo double figures in the gold cup
All of this years equivalents kilcruit, sir gerhard, galopin des champs, monkfish etc
All way way shorter than they should be
The bookies don’t want to take ante post bets anymore
And the only way value can be found is if you are confident the other horses near the head of the market won’t run
The only proper value bet iv had recently was golden pal to win the breeders cup turf sprint at 10s
Even the 5/1 on palace pier for the queen Anne was only value because his opposition was very likely to be a bunch of group 3 horses.
You see quotes of 2/1 for baaeed in the moulin and 3/1 for the QE2 despite him never having beaten a good horse
Hermosa, love, mother earth, snowfall
All went from being decent but exposed 2yos to multiple group 1 winners at 3 in recent years
And whats happened to Wembley I have no idea he was closely matched with St Marks basilica but has made mogul look like frankel this year
The Ballydoyle 3yo’s have been very strange this season. I can’t remember the last time they sent their best to the French Classics – if ever. Ground issues? Prize money?
And Snowfall – they can tell us all they want how “the lads always knew how special she was”. I think not, until after the Oaks. Jockey bookings well and truly back this up.
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