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The first three home in last years 2000 Guineas and what they went on to achieve:
Makfi
1st Prix Jacques Le Marois, def Goldikova and Paco Boy
Dick Turpin
2nd French 2000 Guineas
2nd St James’ Palace Stakes
1st Prix Jean Prat
3rd Prix De La ForetCanford Cliffs
1st Irish 2000 Guineas
1st St James’ Palace Stakes
1st Sussex Stakes, def Rip Van WinkleThey shared five Group One victories and three placed efforts at the highest level between them, collecting some of the most prestigious European mile events.
A true test for any 3YO is when asked to compete against their elders. Not only did Makfi and Canford Cliffs beat their respective elders, they defeated the likes of Goldikova, Paco Boy and Rip Van Winkle, who between them have won top class races throughout Europe and, in Goldikova’s case, the world.
Makfi, Dick Turpin and Canford Cliffs would finish the season as the top rated 3YO milers in the world.
All three were genuine milers. Makfi was by Dubawi (Irish 2000 Guineas / Prix Jacques Le Marios) out of a half sister to Alhaarth (1995 Dewhurst). Dick Turpin comes from an incredibly speedy family and there were severe question marks over him staying eight furlongs (subsequently failed to stay ten furlongs in Juddmonte). The same question marks surrounded Canford Cliffs thoughout last season – those with a good memory will know that some were even questioning his stamina after he won the Irish 2000 Guineas. He is by Tagula, who registered his biggest success over six furlongs, out of speed-related mare.
None of the leading protagonists in this years field have such pedigrees. Frankel and Roderic O’Connor are by Galileo, out of a Danetime (speed) mare. They are similarly bred to Rip Van Winkle, who was also by Galileo, out of a Stravinsky (speed) mare.
Rip Van Winkle boasted Group One victories in the Sussex Stakes and QEII, but was arguably a natural ten furlong horse. He was outpaced in the Dewhurst and subsequent Guineas before connections decided on a change of tactics – forceful tactics that were very successful, until he met Canford Cliffs.
The leading fancies in this years renewal will have no problem staying ten furlongs – possibly beyond. The same could not be said for the first three home in last years race.
The structure of the two respective renewals could not be more different.
With due respect Bosranic, you are stating as fact some things which are no more than your educated guesses. For example, you would have had Refuse to Bend down as a middle distance horse on pedigree.
Each to their own, i wouldn’t rush to draw conclusions to be honest, and i’ll be very suprised if there isn’t at least one from this years race who ends this season rated higher than Dick Turpin was at the end of his 3yo season, for their performances over a mile. In fact i’d bet on it – PM me if you fancy an even money wager.
With due respect Bosranic, you are stating as fact some things which are no more than your educated guesses. For example, you would have had Refuse to Bend down as a middle distance horse on pedigree.
Each to their own, i wouldn’t rush to draw conclusions to be honest, and i’ll be very suprised if there isn’t at least one from this years race who ends this season rated higher than Dick Turpin was at the end of his 3yo season, for their performances over a mile. In fact i’d bet on it – PM me if you fancy an even money wager.
I would have had Refuse To Bend down as a middle distance colt on pedigree, but I don’t believe the 2003 renewal was the best example you could have chosen.
It was hardly a vintage renewal – one of the poorest I can remember. The market went 4/1 the field, and nine of the twenty runners started at odds of 50/1, or greater.
As I stated earlier in this thread, if you have an apparantly average crop of potential milers, then there’s every chance that those who should prefer further could be competitive on pure ability alone.
Refuse To Bend was a prime example.
Whomever reigns supreme on Saturday week, I believe their highest rated efforts will duly come over ten furlongs and beyond.
While Canford Cliffs turned out to be the monster we thought he’d be last year, his 2YO form is inferior to the heights that Frankel had achieved.
Frankel appears to be continuing from where he left off and should he nail the 2000 Guineas, then I’ll say he’ll be a helluva match for Canford Cliffs.
As I stated earlier in this thread, if you have an apparantly average crop of potential milers, then there’s every chance that those who should prefer further could be competitive on pure ability alone.
Refuse To Bend was a prime example.
Did he also beat a seemingly smart field in the Queen Anne because they were "average"? No, because he was a miler, despite what his pedigree suggested.
If Frankel was in a match against Dick Turpin over 1m and they were 5/6 each of two, and i offered you £1k free bet, who would you back? I presume based on your posts you would back Dick Turpin, which is fair enough but i think you would lose.
As I stated earlier in this thread, if you have an apparantly average crop of potential milers, then there’s every chance that those who should prefer further could be competitive on pure ability alone.
Refuse To Bend was a prime example.
Did he also beat a seemingly smart field in the Queen Anne because they were "average"? No, because he was a miler, despite what his pedigree suggested.
If Frankel was in a match against Dick Turpin over 1m and they were 5/6 each of two, and i offered you £1k free bet, who would you back? I presume based on your posts you would back Dick Turpin, which is fair enough but i think you would lose.
You thought that Queen Anne was a smart field?
Soviet Song was a lovely mare, but generally defeated her own sex. Her Sussex Stakes win came against some very, very average colts. Nebraska Tornado didn’t handle the ground and Six Perfections ran no sort of race.
Refuse To Bend’s biggest success came in the the Eclipse over ten furlongs, although that wasn’t exactly a great renewal, either.
If it was a free £1k? Hell, I’d have nothing to lose, so I’d throw it on Dick Turpin. Of course, much would depend on the ground and course.
I would have thought this was a vintage crop of 3 old colts
Frankel
Casemento
Dubai Price
Roderic O Conner
Wotton Bassett
Pathfork
World Dominationetc etc
I think this is a very good crop…much better than last years renewal i would have thought
Bosranic has touched on somrthing important here:
"Frankel and Roderic O’Connor are by Galileo, out of a Danetime (speed) mare. They are similarly bred to Rip Van Winkle, who was also by Galileo, out of a Stravinsky (speed) mare".
If you look at Galileo’s racing history then you would think that his offspring should be 10f to 12f performers. However Rip Van Winkle was more a top class 8f to 10f performer. He was top class, maybe the Northern Dancer inbreeding helped this be so.
I think also that alongside Roderic O’Conner, there also colts who could possibly win this race.
Master of Hounds if he were to be raced here, being by Kingmambo, and racing at 8f, if he has the gears, like Henry the Navigator, might have a chance of beating Frankel.
Casamento who in my opinion is at 3 years old is really an 8f to 10f colt could also possibly also have a chance.
My notes [well, actually only about four lines worth] say ‘Galileo progeny; not enough speed to win at a mile’. Probably have to put a cross through that soon, I guess.
People seem to have ignored the fact that New Approach was only beaten a nose,I repeat a nose, by HenrytheNavigator in the Two Thousand Guineas.They said he did not have the speed to win. He nearly had enough,only a nose short of Guineas’ speed.How slow is that?How much will Galileo be valued if Frankel wins the Guineas? To get Derby and Guineas contenders is some feat. If one could only be sure which one you get!
Roderic O’Connor, Rip Van Winkle, New Approach – all front-runners over a mile and less. They tried (and sometimes succeeding in) sapping the stamina out of others and simply outstaying speedier opponents. Rip couldn’t do it against Poet’s Voice, no way could he have gotten away with it against proper milers like Goldi and didn’t even really get close to doing it to Canford Cliffs. Wasn’t fast enough.
New Approach did get within a nose, yes, but what happened next time? He got cantered over. He got horribly outpaced in the Dewhurst when they didn’t try to dominate and just got up in the final 100 yards.
Frankel may well and probably will win, and given how he races despite being a son of Galileo in comparison to the above 3 has infinitely more speed than any of them, but this is no reason whatsoever to think Galileo progeny have the speed to win over a mile. He’s a freak, he truly would be a once in a lifetime horse, and a precedent should absolutely not be made because of it.
J – once in a lifetime for differing reasons
So Refuse To Bend won the Guineas and the Queen Anne, but wasn’t a good miler, his "middle distance class" got him home every time, because a mile didn’t suit. Interesting theory.
Zarkava – you have baffled me. Rip Van Winkle didn’t have the speed for a mile because he ran from the front over the distance? What sort of bizarre logic is that?
Dear Zarkava you are in imminent danger of suffering the sad fate of the Mynah Bird.
I ignored Telofilo unbeaten 2yo record so as not to over state the case.Class is defined as (1) the ability to carry speed over a distance and (2) to step up when challenged. Teofilo and New Approach had class in spades. Hope Frankel has it also.Galilo has gotten Derby and St.Leger winners so far.Plus 2 Nunthorp winners and one short nose away from winning it.There must surely be more to come from this incredible stallion.
So Refuse To Bend won the Guineas and the Queen Anne, but wasn’t a good miler, his "middle distance class" got him home every time, because a mile didn’t suit. Interesting theory.
Zarkava – you have baffled me. Rip Van Winkle didn’t have the speed for a mile because he ran from the front over the distance? What sort of bizarre logic is that?
Refuse to Bend was an OK miler but the Guineas he won was below average and when he met a good one – Rakti -he was put in his place.
Rip Van Winkle on the other hand was a top class miler – he just wasn’t quite as good at 4 as he was at 3. His 10f form tells you that.
Zarkava – you have baffled me. Rip Van Winkle didn’t have the speed for a mile because he ran from the front over the distance? What sort of bizarre logic is that?
There was a horse I laid earlier at Folkestone in the 12f handicap. He finished 3rd. Had his last 8 races over 16f. Got to the front today and set a fast gallop but ultimately couldn’t sustain it, was passed by the speedier (…) horses and then stayed on and was coming back at them towards the end. He used all his energy setting a frenetic gallop that’d be fast enough to stay ahead of the others so hopefully he could stay on and outstay them, but had nothing left. That’s what happened (IMO) with Rip. Except the others couldn’t come back at him because they were Group 2 or 7 furlong horses.
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