- This topic has 273 replies, 54 voices, and was last updated 13 years, 5 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
DB, I made a note a while back of all the horses who’d run in the Derby who’d ‘quickened’ at some point prior to running at Epsom. I was interested to see if there was a correlation between ‘quickening’ on racecourse debuts and any future success at Group level. It was simply that the only data I had to check this was from the Derby.
Interesting Betfair market for the 2000 now. Strong Suit, Dream Ahead, Fury, Zoffany and Casamento all friendless. Frankel’s come in from 1.74 a couple of hours ago to 1.68. I’d say the only certain runners right now are Frankel, Pathfork, Roderic O’Connor and Dubai Prince. Native Khan’s participation’s in the air (won’t be anywhere near good enough, recorded a RPR of 111 for winning the Craven and I have a strong feeling that’s by far the lowest rating recorded for a long while), Saamidd also looks like a potential runner and Wootton Bassett looks a probable non-runner, not based on his price but on Fahey’s reports.
So possibly we could have a field of 5 for the Guineas….I just wonder if it’s not worth backing something at a bigger price each-way in the hope the race will cut up badly. A single-figure field would mean that Frankel would absolutely pull his jockey’s arms out and he’d be the ‘pacemaker’ to some extent.
Frankel did what was expected against a relatively modest bunch – excluding Strong Suit, who ran no sort of race.
It was a nice performace, but my initial post-race impression was that he is far from unbeatable.
He had every right to improve for the run, but so did the majority of the field, with only the Richard Hannon second string having the benefit of a recent effort.
He can only improve, and I think he will have to if he is to claim the spoils at Newmarket.
There are a few worries with the big occasion looming. He still doesn’t settle well in his races, and it will be interesting to see how he handles the prelims amidst a cauldron of excitement and anticipation.
He drifted towards the centre of the course in the Dewhurst when he was asked for his effort, and again hung right on Saturday. He is a monster of a talent, but I agree with John Francome – there is clearly something going on in his head, too.
I actually think he will be better over further. I don’t think Epsom will be his cup of tea, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he did stay one mile-four.
He has quickened well in his races, but he hasn’t produced it against a genuine speed merchant yet. He defeated Nathaniel on his debut, who lost his maiden tag over twelve furlongs on Saturday.
His Royal Lodge perfomance was ultra-impressive, but not since Mr Bailey’s in 1993 has a colt gone on to victory at Newmarket. In fact, the previous two winners of the Royal Lodge – Joshua Tree and Jukebox Jury – both progressed to win at the highest level over twelve furlongs. If a 2YO is mature enough to win over eight furlongs – and Frankel was a very physically mature juvenile – more often than not they will come into their own over further at three.
I hope Frankel turns out to be as good as we all think he is. I want to see him mix it with the likes of Canford Cliffs and Workforce over their respective distances later in the season, but I certainly don’t think this Guineas is a one horse race.
Vincent was won’t to say "when you have two Derby horses in the yard you have none". Does this apply to Henry?
Some interesting points Bos but I feel you are clutching at straws.
"He had every right to improve for the run, but so did the majority of the field, with only the Richard Hannon second string having the benefit of a recent effort."
Ordinarily I would not disagree but do you think Cecil’s stable form going into this race was as good as Hills, Hannon or Botti? Even if it was he still beat the majority of the field by 10 lengths so I don’t really get your point. When Frankel won the Dewhurst people were at pains to say he only beat Rod O’ Connor, a 25-1 no hoper, by 2 and a bit lengths. Then ROC won a group 1 and those people went quiet. Judging by Marco Botti’s comments after the race we might be hearing quite a bit about Excelebration this year ( a 7 furlong specialist he said).
He drifted towards the centre of the course in the Dewhurst when he was asked for his effort, and again hung right on Saturday. He is a monster of a talent, but I agree with John Francome – there is clearly something going on in his head, too.
Yes there is something going on in his head "run run run run" – look at how he puts his head down and stretches at the end of his races. Compare that to a Recital.
His Royal Lodge perfomance was ultra-impressive, but not since Mr Bailey’s in 1993 has a colt gone on to victory at Newmarket. In fact, the previous two winners of the Royal Lodge – Joshua Tree and Jukebox Jury – both progressed to win at the highest level over twelve furlongs. If a 2YO is mature enough to win over eight furlongs – and Frankel was a very physically mature juvenile – more often than not they will come into their own over further at three.
Can you really compare this horse to Joshua Tree or Jukebox Jury? He scared off most of the opposition in the Royal Lodge and it was run at a crawl. That besides he then won the Dewhurst and the Greenham over 7 furlongs. If you want to reel out stats and trends how many horses have won the RL, Dewhurst and Greenham? Not many I bet but he has. The point is Frankel is not like any other horse is he?
As far as trends go Henry Cecil could probably have chosen any combination of 5 races to run in before the Guineas and you would be able to produce figures that means he can’t win it. And yet he probably will. For that matter let’s look at his main rivals –
Pathfork – how many horses have won the Futurity, National and Guineas?
Rod O Connor – how many horses have won the Criterium and then the Guineas
Wotton Bassett – how many horses have won the Weatherby Insurance and Grand Criterium and won the Guineas.
Dubai Prince – the Killavun stakes then the Guineas.
I could go on. The point is WHOEVER wins the Guineas this year will break some sort of trend.
Having said all that I agree with you – OF COURSE the Guineas is not a one horse race and these are animals so anything can happen. I WOULD say however, that on everything we have seen so far, the evidence points to Frankel having a massive chance and, unless something untoward happens, it is going to take something exceptional to beat him.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Jonibake,
Frankel is clearly the one to beat, but there are certain characteristics that suggest he is beatable.
He possesses an innate, competitive nature that threatens to boil over on the racecourse. He was ‘set alight’ in the Dewhurst after a slight bump exiting the stalls and something was bothering him in the paddock on Saturday.
He is a ball of energy, with raw adrenaline the primary catalyst behind his performances on the racecourse. He doesn’t settle, yet still manages to find plenty at the end of his races.
He reminds me of a young professional footballer with no fear and, in equal measure, no tactical nous. It will cost him victory sooner or later.
A hot day at Newmarket. Intense atmosphere. Surrounded by a group of similarly inexperienced, potentially fractious colts. It will be interesting to see how he reacts.
He is developing a tendancy to hang right under pressure and that will do him no favours at Newmarket on fast ground (good to soft in the Dewhurst).
He has yet to encounter a proper speed colt. Luckily, I don’t think there are too many natural, potentially high class milers in the race. I believe, at this trip, Saamidd and Zoffany possess the most potent turn of foot in the race. Saamidd has not been seen since a poor effort in the Dewhurst and Zoffany is (apparantly) far from certain to line up.
He beat a good colt in Roderic O’Connor, who franked the form, but did so in an eight furlong contest on heavy ground.
I am not analysing his Royal Lodge from a trends perspective. Rather, most colts who possess the physical maturity to win over eight furlongs as a juvenile need a trip the following year. They often beat colts who are bred to appreciate further.
Clutching at straws? Perhaps. Playing Devil’s Advocate? A good chance. Am I making you think? Almost certainly.
- Total Posts 17716
As for failing to settle in his races we could look at it from another perspective – Frankel’s competitors might have never been going fast enough for him at any stage in any race. The real test looks to be when he steps up beyond a mile.
As for failing to settle in his races we could look at it from another perspective – Frankel’s competitors might have never been going fast enough for him at any stage in any race. The real test looks to be when he steps up beyond a mile.
Is there guaranteed pace in the race? Connections will not supplement a pacemaker and if his inability to settle is considered a weakness, will his rivals not want to exploit that?
It will be interesting to see what Aidan does. Obviously Roderic O’Connor would not want them to go a crawl either.
Dubai Prince out……
FFS Zarooni this better not be a injury
Has reportedly been diagnosed with a hairline fracture of his right ilial wing and will require time off.
Will also miss Derby, I fear.
Oh my god Bosranic….
What the **** are they doing with these horses…especially since i thought Zarooni was actually doing a good job with these horses he gets.
A ******* disaster once again……..
- Total Posts 17716
I’m sorry but there has to be something more sinister behind these juvinile purchases by Godolphin.
I have nothing against Godolphin, I think the image they portray is beautiful but for crying out loud the consistancy in which this is happening has to be investigated?
Anyone know any positives from purchasing a 2yo then having it fail health wise, well thats all we’re told is down to ill health but are these being used as work horses for the new 2 year olds every season for betting purposes?
Doubt that Mr Wilson…just one of the most incompetent training stables their has ever been since Ballydoyle put it to them 10 years ago.
Still have faith in Zarooni though
That’s a real shame. I was at Newbury on Saturday and Al Zarooni’s horses were looking fantastic. I had Dubai Prince down as the biggest danger to Frankel.
Bos – of course you have me thinking…but only that Frankel is even more rock solid as you arguments don’t hold much sway for me.
You say something set him alight in the paddock. I imagine you are going on what Johnny F said about him having a bit of sweat in between his back legs (sweaty arse crack is what we used to call it at school!). I can tell you he was coolness personified in the paddock and on his way down to the start. It was a hot day at Newbury. There was an intense atmosphere. It was packed too and everyone was watching Frankel from the moment he entered the pre-parade. There were plenty of things that could have disturbed him but they didnt.
During the race he pulled in the first furlong and a half because they dawdled. TQ was screaming at Mongan to get a move on. But they went a crawl in the Royal Lodge and he won by 10 lengths. Surely this is not the way to beat him? Some people argue he has too much speed, others that he doesnt have enough. So far he has let his running do the talking.
He hung for half a furlong when he was asked to quicken away from the second but then he put his head down and ran straight to the line. I really don’t think you can fault his attitude in the last part of his races.
I am not sure how you can say he is yet to encounter a proper speed colt when he has already beaten a Middle Park winner and a Coventry winner.
You argue that he might be found out against a true miler. But is it not possible that Frankel is a true miler who may stay further as opposed to say a Sea The Stars who was probabaly a natural 1m 2f horse who was quick enough and classy enough to win at 1m. Perhaps Saamid will now run as Dubai Prince is doubtful but he has plenty to prove after Newmarket and you are evaluating him on one run. Zoffany beat Strong Suit by half a length and we saw what happened to that one on Saturday. He may have improved a lot but he will have needed to and he was fairly exposed last year running 7 or 8 times.
Frankel is not yet the finished article and he does not do everything perfectly but the important thing is that he wins and wins well. I think some people read a lot into what amounts to very little and pick up on a few negatives whilst forgetting the very many positives.
We will find out soon enough though hey?!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
I’m devastated he’s out but what has this got to do with Al Zarooni? He’s proved himself this and last year that he’s a first class trainer who’s going places. Horses get injured. It happens very often with Bin Suroor but what’s Al Zarooni done wrong?
This also means that of the 2 horses I fancied for the 2000 Guineas, both are injured…awesome.
I a keen believer in Zarooni but so disappointed that this has happened as i thought this horses would show their true potential. Their is every chance now this horse will not fulfil his potential as a result of this hip injury
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.