2000 Guineas 2011

Richard Fahey is worried the Qipco 2000 Guineas on April 30 may come too soon for Wootton Bassett.

The unbeaten colt was taken away for a racecourse gallop over the weekend and took a good blow after it, leaving Fahey to conclude that he may not be fit enough to do himself justice in the first Classic of the season.

The son of Iffraaj missed some ground work earlier in the year and the Malton handler is concerned that is now beginning to show.

"There’s nothing wrong, but we just might be running out of time and the race is catching up with us," said Fahey.

"We’re going to hopefully get him away in the next eight or nine days because he took a good blow the other day.

"He’s in the French and Irish Guineas as well. The main thing is he’s got to be 100%.

"He’s won on all ground so that would have no baring on our decision.

"In this modern day you’ve got to let people know. I might be doing it wrong and in the next eight or nine days I might be 100% happy, but he just took a good blow the other day.

"He missed ground work, you can’t replace ground work."

http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news … ml&BID=465

Richard Fahey getting cold feet

Any serious follower of trends would have to dodge Saamidd immediately. The Guineas record of the stable since the horses began wintering in Dubai is beyond pathetic.

Any serious follower of trends would have to dodge Saamidd immediately. The Guineas record of the stable since the horses began wintering in Dubai is beyond pathetic.

Not strictly true. I began compiling my trends 2 years ago and did some research into the wintering of horses in Dubai and found that Godolphin have always done it since the mid-90s. Mark of Esteem, Island Sands, Opera House, Lateen Sails, etc, doesn’t matter, they’ve all been there.

You just need to look at the French Guineas to see that it means nothing. Rio de la Plata 2nd in 2008, Buzzword 4th last year, Shamardal 1st in 2005.

So the 2000 Guineas form ( which is under discussion ) of the last ten years is entirely irrelevant? Ok you stick to the "trends" that suit you and I’ll stick to mine.

The fact remains that many highly touted Godolphin trained horses have failed to make it to the race or failed to fire over a significant period of time. Too many have simply disappeared down the black hole to seriously consider the stable as ante post material for the 2000 Guineas.

Anyone can reconsider their position on the day of the race. This is an ante post discussion at this stage though.

In the last ten years Godolphin have saddled eighteen runners in the race. Twelve of them have started at double figures. Arguably, some of the remainder were shorter than they were entitled to be, based on their high profile connections.

Tobougg was purchased out of Mick Channon’s yard and the Dewhurst winner would start at 4/1 for the race in 2001. He would not win another race during his career.

Lateen Sails went off at 9/2 in 2003 after beating Powerscourt over eight furlongs as a 2YO on his only start. He would achieve very little during his career.

Ibn Khladun won the Racing Post Trophy before starting the 2008 renewal at 7/2. He was off the track for nearly two years before returning for just two more races at Meydan last year.

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Although the statistics are far from flattering, the facts behind the figures suggest that the majority of their runners were relatively unfancied. The average SP of a Godolphin colt over the last ten years has been 18.5/1 – and that’s excluding a 100/1 and 200/1 pacemaker.

Of course, their potential challengers this years are not strongly fancied to improve their fortunes, with Casamento, Saamidd and Dubai Prince available at a best-priced 33/1, 25/1 and 20/1, respectively.

Saamidd was as short as 7/1 favourite after his highly impressive performance in the Champagne Stakes, where he beat a Norfolk and Gimcrack winner with the minimum of fuss.

It wasn’t until his excusable effort at Newmarket that he was pushed back out to 20/1, and bigger – the same price he was after his debut success.

It was a total overreaction to a horse that got himself worked up beforehand and disliked the ground. On a line through Waiter’s Dream, he has next to nothing to find with Roderic O’Connor (8/1).

He is sure to stay, has produced a turn of foot against a proven speed colt and possessed the scope for physical improvement. He certainly has more going for him than most.

What price will Saamidd be if, given the green light by connections, Frankie opts for him and we get quick ground at Newmarket? I don’t think he’ll be 25/1.

Antepost betting can be a frustrating business, but we all take our chances and hope to get a run for our money. Reading between the lines (always dangerous) he should line up at Newmarket.

My other fancy for the race at this stage is Zoffany. Again, he was once favourite for the race before an excusable effort on unsuitable ground saw his price inflate.

You can make excuses for both his defeats last year. He was considered a ‘baby’ when travelling over for Royal Ascot and proved that to be true when reversing form with Coventry winner, Strong Suit, in the Phoenix Stakes.

Has given every indication that he will excel over eight furlongs at three and, like Saamidd, has produced a turn of foot against a proven speed colt. In my opinion, both he and the Godolphin colt have the most potent kick in the race.

If the ground comes up quick at Newmarket, he’s sure to run a massive race. Here’s hoping that Seamie Heffernan is in the saddle come the big day.

Re Zoffany’s target … I remember a very similar statement about Rock Of Gibraltar before the 2002 Guineas…"the French Guineas is under consideration".
Surely given his stated and evident liking for fast ground then Newmarket is a much more likely venue for Zoffany than Longchamp.
I am on from last year so fingers crossed its HQ.

word is that Zoffany’s going for the French 2000

Strange thing is that while Zoffany already held various Guineas and Derby entries, AOB has recently entered him in a six-furlong G3 race (Greenland Stks) at the Curragh the same day as the Irish 2000Gs as well as the Irish Champion Stakes. Has he still not figured out if this is a sprinter, miler or middle-distance horse? I mean, he clearly has speed, but also the pedigree for further, but still can’t fathom these mixed signals. Zoffs may not turn up to either Guineas.

with Ajtebi on Dubai Prince.

In the past couple of days, Ajtebi has ridden Zarooni’s Kempton & Beverley runners, while Fabre’s protege Barzalona riding at HQ for Zarooni. Zarooni seems to be a savvy fellow, and perhaps is keen to replace his compatriot as stable jockey with a better rider.

Last year I got the first three home, by using one simple trend.

I simply looked for the word quickened in their racing commentary.

Simple I know but got the idea from Nick Mordin a few seasons back,think of a car changing gears and you’re get the idea.

In today’s Greenham race Frankel earned that comment and must have a good chance to win. At his price though I think I will leave him.

Had a quick flick through the past 14 odd Derbies; Kingsclere, Golan, Where or When, Grand Central, Acapulco, Workforce and Azmeel quickened on their debuts. Nothing significant in there.