2000 Guineas 2011

Am on PATHFORK at 14s i think he beat Frankel just as long Berry does not have him in front to soon like last time.

Frankie rode Rewilding in Dubai so surely he rides for Sheikh Mohammed rather than Bin Suroor?

If Saamidd is fit, well and connections target the Guineas, Frankie will ride Saamidd.

CASAMENTO
"He has done very well over the winter and is in the 2,000 Guineas. Whether he goes for the Guineas or waits for the Dante Stakes will be decided much closer to the time. He has got the speed for the Guineas but luckily we are in the fortunate position that we have a few possibilities for the Guineas, and what we are going to try to do when we get back to Europe is pick the right races for the right horses."

DUBAI PRINCE
"He has done well in Dubai and is being considered for the 2,000 Guineas. He has got a good turn of foot. He will stay but he has plenty of speed to run over a mile. I think he will probably start off at a mile and we will go from there."

SAAMIDD
"He is a 2,000 Guineas possibility – he is going very well – we are pleased with him. Saamidd was very disappointing in the Darley Dewhurst Stakes last year. Things did not work out for him that day – something was bothering him – he was reluctant to load into the stalls and he was just showing a little bit of temperament which we had never seen with him before as he had been very placid. So something wasn’t right and he did not like the soft ground. Ground will be a key factor with this horse. Right now he is as forward in his training as we would want him to be."

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After his Champagne Stakes victory, Dettori said of Saamidd: "He’s very exciting; he’s the future; for a horse having only his second start to beat the Gimcrack winner by two-and-a-quarter lengths isn’t bad; I loved him from the minute I got on him at Newbury and rated him then as very special. He is a beautiful individual; he was nicknamed Pegasus in the yard and they were right!"

They knew something was wrong at Newmarket and I’m sure Frankie hasn’t given up on him just yet. He has yet to ride Dubai Prince and connections clearly rate Casamento as more of a Derby colt.

OVERVIEW

Whilst statistics are interesting, I don’t totally rely on them when analysing a race. They are merely part of the equation, and I use my own knowledge and initiative to find the answer.

The first two classics of the season, in particular, much depends on judgment and anticipation – the ability to see the future and react. I trust my own two eyes more so than numbers on a sheet, although when you eliminate coincidence and irrelevant data, statistics can point you in the right direction.

The problem with statistics is that you can just about eliminate every horse in the race. It’s important not to force information to suit your own particular hypothesis. Here’s an example of three random ten year trends:

3 / 10 had previously won a Group 1
2 / 10 had previously won over a eight furlongs
9 / 10 had previously won over seven furlongs

The first statistic would eliminate the first seven in the betting. The second Dubai Prince. The third Strong Suit.

What are you left with? The funny thing is, I would actually consider them, particularly the statistics regarding distance, as quite relevant!

When I analyse a group of statistics for this type of race – experience, ability, distance, pedigree – I want them to paint a picture. I want them to produce a profile.

Expanding on the aforementioned ten year trends, I would like to present a few more that I consider of interest:

7 / 10 had 2 – 4 previous runs
8 / 10 won on seasonal debut
7 / 10 were a group winner
6 / 10 had previously won over six furlongs

In my opinion, these group of statistics, taking into consideration experience, ability and distance, do present a colt with a particular profile. The previous winning distance statistic is quite revealing. A previous success over seven furlongs is quite telling, but the fact that only two colts had previously won over eight furlongs, whilst six had won over six furlongs, indicates the need for speed over stamina.

Colts that win over eight furlongs as a 2YO are more likely to appreciate a greater test of stamina as a 3YO, although that is where pedigree analysis plays a part. They tend to beat fellow colts who are bred or appear to want further, and when encountering a colt – successful over sprint distances at two – who improves for the step up to eight furlongs he, more often than not, is found wanting.

I successfully opposed St Nicolas Abbey last year based on this theory. Much was made of the ’turn of foot’ he produced in the Racing Post Trophy (8F), but he displayed it against colts who were bred to appreciate further and it was highly unlikely that it would prove as decisive against colts like Dick Turpin, Canford Cliffs and Xaar, who were bred to excel over the distance.

That theory was proved correct.

Another interesting trend is that which tells us that the majority had won a group race, but not at the highest level. It’s also quite interesting that the same number who had yet to win a group race was the same as those who had already won at the highest level.

It’s clear that you want a horse with proven speed and the winner is more likely to come from those who have been competing over shorter distances rather than eight as a juvenile, but appear and are bred to not only appreciate, but improve for the step up to eight furlongs as a 3YO.

This statistic is quite damning of Frankel, a colt who many also have reservations over his pedigree. I, for one, have no concerns. Galileo has already proven that, when bred to a certain type of broodmare, he can produce progeny with speed.

New Approach was a dual Guineas runner-up, while Rip Van Winkle and Lush Lashes were both successful at the highest level over eight furlongs. The latter duo were out of dams by Stravinsky and Anabaa, respectively. Speed. Speed. Speed.

Frankel, like Roderic O’Connor, is out of a Danetime mare. Both will not be found wanting for speed, especially Frankel. His dam Kind was a listed winner over five and six furlongs. They both pulled clear of Glor Na Mara in the Dewhurst. He was placed at Group One level over six and seven furlongs and is from the family of Dansili, by a sire who excelled over six and eight furlongs in the US.

They are bred not to be short of speed and have proven it on the track. Beware, however, both Vital Equine and Henrythenavigator reversed juvenile form to win their Guineas, so it would be no surprise should Roderic O’Connor reverse the Dewhurst form.

Of the aforementioned statistics, only Saamidd fits the profile – a group winner (but not at the highest level) who has won over seven furlongs (Champagne Stakes). He also has won over six furlongs, has had three previous runs and, should he run at Newmarket, it will be his seasonal debut.

It should also be noted that the Champagne Stakes has produced more winners in the last ten years than any other, with Rock Of Gibraltar, Haafhd and Cockney Rebel (all placed) going on to win the first classic of the season.

FULL ANALYSIS TO COME…

Here’s an example of three random ten year trends:

3 / 10 had previously won a Group 1
2 / 10 had previously won over a eight furlongs
9 / 10 had previously won over seven furlongs

You realize that only the 3rd of those is actually a trend, right? Neither 3/10 nor 2/10 are trends.

I personally don’t believe that trends are the be-all and end-all of anticipating races, but it’s an interesting perspective from a dedicated follower of trends that I am happy to read about and consider.

Call them what you will, but they clearly state that a colt who has won over a mile and / or won at the highest level have rarely won the race in the last ten years.

Like I said in my latest post, I prefer to use my own judgement rather than rely on statistics, but if a collection of statistics tell me something, I will certainly factor them into my equation.

For example, look at those statistics you highlighted and the first four home in last years 2000 Guineas. Makfi, Dick Turpin, Canford Cliffs and Xtension had never previously won a Group 1, had never previously won over eight furlongs and three of them had won over seven furlongs. Those same three won a group race over that distance, and Canford Cliffs was a group winner over six furlongs.

They clearly had too much toe for the fifth and sixth – Elusive Pimpernel and St Nicholas Abbey – who were both successful over eight furlongs. Impressively too, I might add.

The myth that you need a colt who would eventually stay ten furlongs is complete nonsense, in my opinion. Dick Turpin failed to stay in the Juddmonte and how do you the think the others would / would have fared over that distance?

Never say never in racing, but I simply couldn’t have Dream Ahead, Casamento, Wootton Bassett or Dubai Prince. Statistics and judgement tell me that.

Of course, I’ve been wrong before and it will happen again!

Cockney Rebel didn’t. Only race he won as a 2yo was his Maiden over 6f.

Fair enough. Bosranic says 9/10 last 10 winners had won over 7f as a 2yo so Cockney Rebel must be the exception.

Brilliant post as usual Bos. Watching that replay he really does look a class act doesnt he?!

I must admit that, as a Frankel fan, Saamid was the one I was most afraid of last year. They made their debuts on the same day and one could even say that Saamid was the most visually impressive. The reports coming from the stable were about as good as I can remember since Dubai Millenium and as we know FRankie was quoted calling him "Pegasus."

Then it all seemed to go wrong. The writing appeared to be on the wall before the Dewhurst. I watched him on Channel 4 in a gallop at Newmarket and he looked sluggish. They were not at all confident before the Dewhurst (I rememeber Frankie saying that Dream Ahead would win) and as we know he had a shocker.

So what went wrong and have they fixed it? Was it simply the ground which was soft the day they galloped him and the day of the Dewhurst? Was it the track? Or was it simply that he went over the top quite early on? Godolphin did say that he would make a much better 3 year old.

There is an awful lot to forgive him for if you want to take him seriously as a Guineas contender in my opinion. Not least the fact that Simon Crisford, speaking about Casamento and Dubai Prince the other week, said that they were in the fortunate position of having two Guineas contenders. No mention of Saamid.

He clearly has the making of a very smart colt and, like you said, could not have been more impressive in his first two starts, but I would like to hear a few positive bulletins from the boys in blue before getting too excited about early season targets.