- This topic has 273 replies, 54 voices, and was last updated 13 years, 5 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
After the sales Mrs harrington came home with the intention of shipping him over but he had a slight injury and never travelled.
Sadly, Jeremy Noseda has just announced that Peter Martins has met with a setback which will rule out a tilt at the 2000 Guineas.
The favourite may well win the race, but in my view the price is ridiculous. You could have got better odds on 2 real certs (Big Bucks and Quevega).
The most impressive 2 year old performance for me last year was Dream Ahead’s win in the Middle Park.
I cannot understand why he is 16/1, but at these odds I cannot resist a bet.The favourite may well win the race, but in my view the price is ridiculous. You could have got better odds on 2 real certs (Big Bucks and Quevega).
The most impressive 2 year old performance for me last year was Dream Ahead’s win in the Middle Park.
I cannot understand why he is 16/1, but at these odds I cannot resist a bet.Dream Ahead certainly looks a good prospect for 2011, but I would disagree about his Middle Park victory being the best 2yo performance of last year. As was mentioned by some people at the time, the proximity of Foghorn Leghorn to Strong Suit, Approve (1.5 lengths) and Irish Field (0.75 length) indicates the possibilty that those three ran nowhere near their best. Foghorn Leghorn was raised 15 pounds by the BHA handicappers after that run, as the only way for them to “square the books” relating the all the runners in the race, especially Dream Ahead. It’s a big leap of faith to believe that Foghorn Leghorn improved that much on his ninth race of the season. He had been beaten nine lengths in a Nursery off a mark of 90 in his previous race, had won a nursery off 85 before that, and been beaten over twelve lengths by New Planet (105) before that.
I remember thinking when looking at this form last year: what targets will Foghorn Leghorn’s owners and trainer have for 2011, now that he had a rating of 105? Was he really good enough for listed class? Had his handicap possibilites been really been left for dead? Would he be sold abroad? According to Horses in Training 2011 he is no longer trained in the UK. I hope he has a good career abroad, away from the glare of a 105 rating.
I think Dream Ahead’s form in the Prix Morny and the Middle Park make the 16/1 look reasonable.
Jessica recently gave an interview on TV Eireann where she stated that Pathfork would go straight to the Guineas and had come through the winter in great form and was rearing to go.Basically she said she could not be happier with the horse.And she sounded like it.
Not sure how keen people are on trends, but I’ll chip in with the strongest trends that can be explained the best.
The first one’s the best one because it’s held up year after year, but even I will admit that it’ll take something special to continue it’s streak.
Since 1995, 15 of 16 winners were sired by a Group/Grade 1 winner between 5 and 8f
, the exception being Mark of Esteem in 1996, sired by Darshaan, a Criterium de Saint-Cloud and Prix du Jockey Club winner.
Zafonic in 1993 was sired by Gone West, a Grade 2 and 3 winner in America, Don’t Forget Me was sired by Ahonoora, a Nunthorpe winner (a Group 2 at the time) and Mystiko, sired by Secreto, an Epsom Derby winner, also weren’t sired by Group 1 winners between 5 and 8 furlongs.
And who’s Frankel’s sire? Galileo, a Group 1 winner over only 12 furlongs just like Secreto. That gives you hope, but it’s not a statistic that would fill me with great confidence. With Zafonic and Don’t Forget Me there was clear pace in the breeding, but it’s something like Mark of Esteem and Mystiko both lacked. It exemplifies the success of Mark of Esteem, both in the Guineas and subsequently.
It also rules out the 2nd and 3rd favourites, Pathfork and Roderic O’Connor
, being by Distorted Humor (3rd in a Grade 1 H’cap) and Galileo respectively.
You can throw out Wootton Bassett (Iffraaj), Strong Suit (Rahy) and Zoffany (Dansili) too.
It’s a monster stat and if it holds up again this year, then it makes our lives a lot easier.
Al Zir, St. Nicholas Abbey, Elusive Pimpernel, Delegator, Gan Amhras, Rip Van Winkle, New Approach, Raven’s Pass, US Ranger, Haatef, Araafa, Snow Ridge, Grey Swallow, One Cool Cat, Norse Dancer, Hold That Tiger, Hawk Wing, Giant’s Causeway, Alhaarth and Celtic Swing are the main horses to have fallen fowl of the trend, and while 3 were beaten by small margins, I don’t believe it’s a coincidence that the 3 to beat them were all bred with far more speed in mind.
The next stat is again a bit of an avalanche and really is without exception.
Barring Aidan O’Brien runners, all horses to have run over 5 or 6f at Group level as a 2-year-old have been beaten.
Middle Park runners are 0-1-15 with the placed run coming from Dutch Art.
Mujahid, Redback* (thanks, Peruvian for the correction), Zafeen, the aforementioned Dutch Art, Dick Turpin & Canford Cliffs have been the only placed horses after having run over 6 furlongs in a 2yo Group race. 6 from 48. And really you can’t make a case against them, as not one came close to winning.
Wootton Basset, Dream Ahead and Strong Suit are the 4 standout horses to be eliminated by this.
While horses who hadn’t run in a Group race as a 2yo are 1-4-35 between 2002 and 2010, with Makfi being the sole winner. He was sold from Marcus Tregoning’s yard while his yard was suffering badly with a bug. This usually eliminates only no-hopers, while it’s certainly of no help to us right now in regards to the betting.
All 16 winners finished in the top 4 on their debuts and 15 of the 16 posted a RPR of 99+ as a juvenile
, the exception being Golan for Michael Stoute.
Horses rated RPR122+ as a 2yo have an atrocious record with none of the 8 winning. 3 were placed with 2 being beaten by tiny margins, Celtic Swing and New Approach.
And a nice little stat that helps out rather a lot in relation to the amount of runners;
11 of the 16 winners ‘quickened’ according to RP comments.
There’s too much ammunition to take Frankel on with, especially given no Dewhurst winner has followed up in the Guineas since 2002.
There’s little to oppose Casamento with and I was very hopeful of a big run until Michael Halford said he’d run in the RP Trophy. Winners of that event have a dismal record and it’s been almost 40 years since High Top did the double. It looks like he’s going down the Derby route and he’s a huge price on Betfair.
The only horse in the top 10 in the betting that flies through every strong trend is Dubai Prince.
He’s quickened, posted a high RPR, won a Group race, sired by a Dewhurst and French Guineas winner and is trained by a man who’s fast becoming one of the top trainers in the country. Dermot Weld loves him and at 20/1 he’s just a silly silly price.
You could easily forgive Pathfork the breeding stat given that Distorted Humor has a similar profile to Zafonic’s sire, Gone West, but I just wonder how good he is. The proximity of Samuel Morse & Zoffany just makes me question his quality, and he’d surely have been beaten by Casamento in the National Stakes had he run a little less greener.
For the Saamidd fans out there, he also lacks the pace in his breeding being by Street Cry, and I just can’t entertain him in my thoughts after his Dewhurst run.
Fury’s by far the most interesting outsider but again looks like he’ll lack the quality needed. The subsequent runs of the 2nd and 4th from his Sales race (2nd beaten 22L by Roderic O’Connor, 4th stepped 3f up in trip in a Conditions race and finished 2nd) suggest he’ll be far from good enough and William Haggas’ RP comments aren’t exactly bullish.
Very interesting and persuasive post, Zarkava.
You’ve convinced me to follow up my EW fancy of Fury (at least Fallon is fairly bullish, even if the trainer isn’t) with a punt on Dubai Prince.
Like a lot of ‘only halfway serious’ punters I tend to dismiss trends as accidents masquerading as meaningful patterns, but your well-researched post highlights too many coincidences to ignore.
Thanks.
(Unless of course it’s a blind alley, in which case thanks for showing me the futility of trends!)Oscar
Thanks, Oscar. I posted earlier in the Cheltenham section about my pure hatred of unresearched trends summed up in a simple 10/10 format. That says absolutely nothing as well as being horribly inaccurate. I can envisage them working for 25+ runner cavalry charge handicaps given the pure volume of runners, but for Group 1s and the such, they’re worthless.
Actually I should’ve mentioned another stat, simply forgot since I hadn’t written it down.
The stamina indexes for the sire and damsire when added together have been 16.2+ for 15 of the past 16 winners
. 2000 Guineas winners are essentially 10 furlong horses that have the pace for a mile, so
they require an essential blend of speed and stamina
.
Island Sands won in 1999 with a combined stamina index of just 15.3, but overall those runners with a figure of 16.1 or less are 1-4-38. I’ve purposefully made a halfway divide between the 2 lowest index winners to allow for a bit of leeway both ways.
The next highest figure was 16.9 for both the previous 2 winners, although Makfi is by Dubawi, a young sire whose stamina index is changing every month. The first time I took a reading, it was 15.3, then 16.7 and 16.9 just now. You need to be very careful if you’re trying to eliminate any horses using this method.
And Fury’s stamina indexes add up to just 15.8. The average is 18.4. Dubai Prince’s is 18.8. There doesn’t seem to be any correlation between a higher stamina index resulting in the horse staying further. Refuse to Bend’s figure is 20.5 yet was a patent non-stayer at Epsom while the 16.9 Sea The Stars hacked up. King’s Best has a 23.8 figure yet he had more than enough speed to win a Guineas.
However, I definitely wouldn’t worry about Fury not having run in a 2yo Group race. Sales races are becoming such common occurances and they’re worth so much, that they’re much more attractive prospects to owners. What would be the point of Haggas running Fury in the Middle Park if he felt he’d be no better than 5th when he could win a Sales race with him and collect £173,000 more than the Middle Park winner’s connections. Gan Amhras was put away for a few months before Bolger tried picking up one of the Timeform Million races in Ireland, Cockney Rebel’s 2nd outing was in a 6f Sales race, Dick Turpin picked up a Sales race after winning the Richmond Stakes, etc.
I’d also err on the side of caution when reading Fallon’s comments. His career is still being rehabilitated and needs to keep his connections sweet. The amount of rubbish information I read in his Weekender columns last season was amazing.
Pathfork interests me now very much.
The fact that he is not say 4/1 2nd favorite is the fact he is with a jumps trainer. He is the best horse in Ireland won the best races in Ireland. He has beaten the RP winner. 1 mile is his trip and he is needing quicker ground to show how good he is.
This reminds me a bit of the Sea The Stars who went off 8/1 in the Guineas. Did what he did in Ireland well but with a understated manner on soft ground.
Nobody can tell how many lbs he will improve for this better surface…he has become a bit wider and fuller according to Fran Berry and it would be a great story for him personally to give the 2 fingers to the Oxx Stable and their new association with Murtagh. Any man would be bitter and sick to the teeth but Fran best rides come from outside that stable as we have seen.
Frankel obviously is the best we have seen as a 2yr old in a long time but Rainbow View was the same but the comparsion between Henry Cecil and John Gosden is like comparing Mario Ballotelli with Lionel Messi…poles apart in terms of training the best race horses for the best days
Rainbow View did exactly what I and anybody that looks at foaling dates thought she’d do. Just improved and improved as a 3yo and at the end of the season was pretty much the best 3yo filly around. She was a late-May foal and Frankel’s a mid-Feb, poles apart.
- Total Posts 17716
Not sure how keen people are on trends, but I’ll chip in with the strongest trends that can be explained the best.
The first one’s the best one because it’s held up year after year, but even I will admit that it’ll take something special to continue it’s streak.
Since 1995, 14 of 15 winners were sired by a Group/Grade 1 winner between 5 and 8f
, the exception being Mark of Esteem in 1996, sired by Darshaan, a Criterium de Saint-Cloud and Prix du Jockey Club winner.
Zafonic in 1993 was sired by Gone West, a Grade 2 and 3 winner in America, Don’t Forget Me was sired by Ahonoora, a Nunthorpe winner (a Group 2 at the time) and Mystiko, sired by Secreto, an Epsom Derby winner, also weren’t sired by Group 1 winners between 5 and 8 furlongs.
And who’s Frankel’s sire? Galileo, a Group 1 winner over only 12 furlongs just like Secreto. That gives you hope, but it’s not a statistic that would fill me with great confidence. With Zafonic and Don’t Forget Me there was clear pace in the breeding, but it’s something like Mark of Esteem and Mystiko both lacked. It exemplifies the success of Mark of Esteem, both in the Guineas and subsequently.
It also rules out the 2nd and 3rd favourites, Pathfork and Roderic O’Connor
, being by Distorted Humor (3rd in a Grade 1 H’cap) and Galileo respectively.
You can throw out Wootton Bassett (Iffraaj), Strong Suit (Rahy) and Zoffany (Dansili) too.
It’s a monster stat and if it holds up again this year, then it makes our lives a lot easier.
Al Zir, St. Nicholas Abbey, Elusive Pimpernel, Delegator, Gan Amhras, Rip Van Winkle, New Approach, Raven’s Pass, US Ranger, Haatef, Araafa, Snow Ridge, Grey Swallow, One Cool Cat, Norse Dancer, Hold That Tiger, Hawk Wing, Giant’s Causeway, Alhaarth and Celtic Swing are the main horses to have fallen fowl of the trend, and while 3 were beaten by small margins, I don’t believe it’s a coincidence that the 3 to beat them were all bred with far more speed in mind.
The next stat is again a bit of an avalanche and really is without exception.
Barring Aidan O’Brien runners, all horses to have run over 5 or 6f at Group level as a 2-year-old have been beaten.
Middle Park runners are 0-1-15 with the placed run coming from Dutch Art.
Mujahid, Redford, Zafeen, the aforementioned Dutch Art, Dick Turpin & Canford Cliffs have been the only placed horses after having run over 6 furlongs in a 2yo Group race. 6 from 48. And really you can’t make a case against them, as not one came close to winning.
Wootton Basset, Dream Ahead and Strong Suit are the 4 standout horses to be eliminated by this.
While horses who hadn’t run in a Group race as a 2yo are 1-4-35 between 2002 and 2010, with Makfi being the sole winner. He was sold from Marcus Tregoning’s yard while his yard was suffering badly with a bug. This usually eliminates only no-hopers, while it’s certainly of no help to us right now in regards to the betting.
All 16 winners finished in the top 4 on their debuts and 15 of the 16 posted a RPR of 99+ as a juvenile
, the exception being Golan for Michael Stoute.
Horses rated RPR122+ as a 2yo have an atrocious record with none of the 8 winning. 3 were placed with 2 being beaten by tiny margins, Celtic Swing and New Approach.
And a nice little stat that helps out rather a lot in relation to the amount of runners;
11 of the 16 winners ‘quickened’ according to RP comments.
There’s too much ammunition to take Frankel on with, especially given no Dewhurst winner has followed up in the Guineas since 2002.
There’s little to oppose Casamento with and I was very hopeful of a big run until Michael Halford said he’d run in the RP Trophy. Winners of that event have a dismal record and it’s been almost 40 years since High Top did the double. It looks like he’s going down the Derby route and he’s a huge price on Betfair.
The only horse in the top 10 in the betting that flies through every strong trend is Dubai Prince.
He’s quickened, posted a high RPR, won a Group race, sired by a Dewhurst and French Guineas winner and is trained by a man who’s fast becoming one of the top trainers in the country. Dermot Weld loves him and at 20/1 he’s just a silly silly price.
You could easily forgive Pathfork the breeding stat given that Distorted Humor has a similar profile to Zafonic’s sire, Gone West, but I just wonder how good he is. The proximity of Samuel Morse & Zoffany just makes me question his quality, and he’d surely have been beaten by Casamento in the National Stakes had he run a little less greener.
For the Saamidd fans out there, he also lacks the pace in his breeding being by Street Cry, and I just can’t entertain him in my thoughts after his Dewhurst run.
Fury’s by far the most interesting outsider but again looks like he’ll lack the quality needed. The subsequent runs of the 2nd and 4th from his Sales race (2nd beaten 22L by Roderic O’Connor, 4th stepped 3f up in trip in a Conditions race and finished 2nd) suggest he’ll be far from good enough and William Haggas’ RP comments aren’t exactly bullish.
One of the best post i’ve read on TRF for a while and you’re probably not getting the credit you deserve.
Nice read Zarkava.
Thanks- Total Posts 17716
Zarkava
How many of Galileo’s progeny dropped back in trip as 2yo’s, and still had the speed to win their Gp1 race almost 2f from home?Interesting stuff Zarkava – Wootton Bassetts sire was very, very close to a Group 1 over 6f, so it would be brave to chuck him out.
The proof will be in the pudding after the summer as it always is – but i think this looks a good Guineas. The favourite is exciting.
Pathfork travels like a dream, quickens, and runs to the line.
Wooton Bassett is unexposed, seems very professional, and won his Group 1 in France pulling a cart. He will be battle hardened after those huge field sales races. The ground seemingly holds no fears for him as he appears very versatile, although you’d have to say that winning a Group 1 easily on V. Soft (Official going description – how accurate is that? I don’t think it was any worse than good to soft personally) means a bit of cut would perhaps inconvenience the others more than him.
I couldn’t say Frankel won’t win, but i wouldn’t be backing him at even money in a good (imo) year. I’ll have a bet on the day, and it will probably be Wootton Bassett e/w.
A very fair & true statement that I can’t argue against, Reet. I hope he does win, really I do, but in terms of value I can’t have him. Quevega vs that lot the other day or Frankel vs a new bunch of horses he’s not faced before in a 20-runner field when Galileo’s progeny are not typically known as milers & was a neck away from siring an Ascot Gold Cup winner.
Granted he didn’t step back in trip, but there were an awful lot of people asking how many Montjeus had shown the speed & turn of foot that St Nick had shown, or how about Jim McGrath saying a horse rated 8lbs better than Frankel on RPRs was a ‘certainty’ 16 years ago.
We can’t keep getting wonder horses, however great they are for our sport. In the past 4 seasons we’ve had Zarkava, Goldikova & Sea the Stars on our continent with some super-equus efforts from Cape Blanco & Workforce among others. We’ve had 3 exceptional juveniles & you couldn’t really say that either New Approach or St Nick delivered on the promise they’d shown.
Mr Wilson, thanks, hope it proves to be useful!
I can’t see who sent the last post I’m afraid. Of course Iffraaj is a young sire, but his 7.2 stamina index looks about right I’d say. He was never campaigned over further than 7f, so I don’t think we’d see his figure rise above 8.4, and even if I gave him a speculative 8.4, Wootton would fall well short of my 16.2 cut-off point on just 15.5.
You’ve lost me with your last paragraph regarding Iffraaj – could you expand on this please. I was referencing his narrow (unlucky) head defeat in the July Cup as qualifying him as a Group 1 winning sire between 6 and 8f.
Also – Redford didn’t run in Guineas, not cherry picking mistakes but you appear to be thourough in your workings so thought you’d want to know.
I’d also disagree regarding Pathfork / Casemento – i’d say Pathfork won cosily with a bit in hand rather than he won because his rival ran green. Only my opinion based on what i saw.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.