2000 Guineas 2011

Just to put my two penn’orth in I think and hope Frankel will win but have backed Saamid e/w at 40/1 and at 16/1 without the Fav. He hated the ground when he ran behind Frankel and hopefully it will be quicker ground on Saturday!!
And his jockey is gonna be a superstar!!

Sea The Stars travelled like the wrath of god, and was delivered late similar to Delegator, so he was fairly typical considering his utter class

The barrier draw is the first real reason I’ve found to be turned off Frankel at all. Gate one is not ideal. Let the tactical games begin!

With the stalls being placed in the centre of the course, the draw will make little difference, if any. I think the importance of the draw is more often than not over-stated, especially in Group 1 races, where ability allied to form is the pre-determining factor.

I cannot foresee anything but a Frankel victory.

Native Khan’s turn to be freindless in the market, out to over 25/1.

The Newmarket skies will be clear, the sunshine unrelenting, as a field of thirteen colts prepare to thunder down The Rowley Mile. Some will be fractious, their chances of victory evaporating long before a stride taken in earnest. Others will be the epitome of calm and poise, defying their inexperience of the big occasion and relishing the cauldron associated with days such as this.

Those that exit the stalls with the chances still intact will find nowhere to hide. The early stages can so often resemble a barging match, whilst ‘The Dip’ has been the Achilles Heel of so many top class colts. Reserves will need to be called upon, climbing a final furlong that will be unknown territory for some.

The first classic of the season may be scheduled for ten past three, but the race will start long before the field step out onto the racecourse.

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It’s hard to remember a colt with as much hype coming into the race as FRANKEL. Starting four of his five races at odds-on, he has barely turned a hair in the process of registering an unbeaten record. His form is solid throughout. From his debut success, Nathaniel and Genius Beast have both secured impressive victories since, whilst Rainbow Springs, slaughtered by Frankel on her debut at Doncaster, finished a fine third in the Prix Marcel-Boussac three weeks later.

His first venture into group company resulted in a breath-taking performance to land the Royal Lodge by 10L from Klammer. That colt would claim the Horris Hill on his next start and if that wasn’t impressive enough, Frankel only had to be pushed out to defeat future Criterium International winner, Roderic O’Connor, to land the Dewhurst Stakes.

Chinks are not easily identifiable in the muscular armour of the favourite.

The stats are very much against him, however. Only two of the last ten winners had previously won over eight furlongs, whilst eight out of the last ten were making their seasonal debuts. He still doesn’t settle in his races and has yet to encounter a top colt with recognised speed, – the Dewhurst proving inconclusive due to a couple of high profile challengers failing to run their race – and there is a burgeoning tendency to hang right under pressure.

Still, his position at the head of the market is more than justified and he deserves to be an odds-on favourite.

The Jessica Harrington-trained PATHFORK also boasts an unbeaten record, with a victory at the highest level, but he is very much the antithesis of the favourite.

A thoroughly professional colt, he settles well in his races and merely does what is required to seal victory.

The form of his National Stakes defeat of Casamento has worked out well, with the runner-up progressing to land the Beresford Stakes and Racing Post Trophy. It is widely felt that Casamento would have won that day with more experience, but Pathfork reportedly hated the soft ground and will be much happier on a faster surface.

Although he has raced exclusively at the Curragh, his smooth action and strong travelling nature suggest Newmarket will not pose a problem. He comes into the race with legitimate claims of causing an upset and is intriguingly drawn next to Frankel in stall two.

There’s a lot to like about what we’ve seen of RODERIC O’CONNOR thus far. He maintained his effort right to the line when finding only Frankel too good in the Dewhurst, before demonstrating his juvenile immaturity when claiming the Criterium International at Saint Cloud.

Smartly away, he was always up with the pace and stayed on strongly to repel all challengers, despite veering sharply right inside the final two furlongs of the contest. The form doesn’t equate to much, but he wasn’t fully exerted and one would expect much improvement between two and three.

Drawn in stall three, next to Frankel and Pathfork, he should ensure a good lead, but will arguably only succeed in setting the race up for those smart enough.

CASAMENTO will fly the flag for Godolphin this season after Marc Halford guided him to Group One glory last year to land the Racing Post Trophy.

He looked a nice prospect chasing home Pathfork in the National Stakes on only his second start, but continued on an upward curve with victory in the Beresford Stakes. The form of his Racing Post Trophy is looking very strong. Although the runner-up, Seville, is yet to see a racecourse this year, the third placed Master Of Hounds was narrowly touched off in the UAE Derby, whilst Native Khan and Dunboyne Express, third and fourth respectively, have both won on their seasonal debuts in recognised trials.

Both his previous and current connections have insisted that he isn’t short of speed, but for all that he has demonstrated versatility ground wise, I’m not convinced a combination of the quick conditions and undulations will play to his strengths. Godolphin also have a poor record with juvenile purchases and one gets the impression that Casamento would have made his seasonal debut elsewhere had it not been for the injury of Dubai Prince.

I’m certain this talented colt can make his presence felt on a more suitable stage at the highest level this season.

FURY has none nothing wrong in his two starts. He is related to a host of winners and had some talented sorts behind – most notably Formosina and Auld Burns – when landing a valuable race at this venue towards the end of last season, where he had the run of the race and an ideal draw.

He is versatile ground wise and clearly is not fazed by the undulations. The fact that he has handled himself in such a large field as a juvenile suggests that he is a very professional individual, but may fall just shy of the level required to win this and is arguably more of a Jersey type.

NATIVE KHAN has already shown enough to suggest that he could develop into a really nice colt this year. He won the Solario Stakes from a couple of decent sorts before a respectable fourth in the Racing Post Trophy behind Casamento. He was reportedly unsuited by the ground that day and is much happier on a faster surface.

He did nothing wrong in the Craven, but the second arguably failed to stay and it was a far cry from the level of competition he will face tomorrow. He should progress into a nice middle distance performer in the mid-to-latter half of the season, but will perhaps find a few too good tomorrow.

Godolphin have a second string to their bow in the shape of SAAMIDD. The handsome son of Street Cry, nicknamed Pegasus at home, was an ultra-impressive 7L winner on his debut before being merely pushed out to win the Champagne Stakes.

He made the vastly more experienced Norfolk and Gimcrack winner, Approve, look pedestrian when showing a smart turn of foot to win with the minimum of fuss, despite taking a keen hold early on.

He was clearly upset with something in the Dewhurst when finishing last of the six runners. His action is that of a fast ground performer and he was sure to be unsuited by the softer conditions that day. On a line through Acomb winner and Champagne Stakes third, Waiter’s Dream, he blatantly failed to run to form that day and does not have to improve a great deal to be competitive.

He was a relatively weak 2YO and connections expect much more from him at three. He obviously has something to prove now and the track has to be something of a worry; will surely be more ideally suited to a flatter track.

He has displayed the most potent turn of foot in the field with victory over a recognised speed colt at Doncaster and breeding suggests he will have no problem with the trip. One would hope for more positive vibes from connections, and it’s quite possible he may yet need more time.

DUBAWI GOLD is similarly bred to last years winner, Makfi, and is unbeaten in two starts for Richard Hannon after showing promise for Michael Dods as a juvenile.

He has rattled off a double for connections at Lingfield this season, but those victories still leave him with a lot to find and he is another who takes a keen hold in his races.

He has a nice prize in him on turf this season, but on all evidence thus far, he has a mountain to climb here.

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The first colts classic is always a race I look forward and the presence of Frankel makes it a race to savour. There’s nothing like a hype-horse looking to cement his reputation and the Henry Cecil-trained bulldozer certainly adds fuel to the burning fire of anticipation.

Henry Cecil has always been something of a hero to me since before I even reached double figures, and his long road back to glory has been nothing short of inspirational. My heart is with his colt tomorrow, but I feel that he could be worth challenging.

I think the stats can be thrown out this year. This seasons renewal appears short on natural milers, and Frankel could be such an extraordinary beast that he could make a mockery of the numbers this year.

The draw has certainly added another dimension to the contest, with Frankel, Pathfork and Roderic O’Connor drawn in the first three stalls, whilst pacemaker, Rerouted, is left at the opposite end in stall thirteen. What were the chances of that happening?

As things stand it shouldn’t be a problem. Only a relatively small field, but Roderic O’Connor has raced prominently in all his starts and won’t be hanging around. What makes it more appealing, in my opinion, is the proximity of Pathfork and Frankel.

If Pathfork returns in the same form as last year, I think he could very well be the last one off the bridle. He travels so well in his races and maintains his effort right to the line. If he can put Frankel under pressure things could get interesting. His National Stakes victory is arguably as strong as anything and I believe Casamento boasts a stronger line of form than Roderic O’Connor.

Regular contributors will know that I’m a huge fan of Saamidd. The booking of Mikael Barzalona does not worry me in the slightest. A very talented jockey and I’m almost certain Frankie was asked to ride Casamento, rather than choose. Sheikh Mohammed would like nothing more than to win the Epsom Derby, and I think connections have one eye on the first Saturday in June.

Their doesn’t appear to be much confidence around the Champagne Stakes winner and that is my worry, but one could argue that it speaks volumes they are allowing him to take his chance.

My idea of the 1-2-3:

1 PATHFORK
2 FRANKEL
3 SAAMIDD

With the race less than 24 hours away, there will be nerves starting to settle in for even the most experienced of trainers and jockeys in what looks to be a strong renewal of the race.

Having narrowed the 2000 Guineas down to 3 selections, the heart will always sway with FRANKEL and the opinion hasn’t changed since being flagged up on Racing Review after his Maiden win (read the article HERE). He has been a horse that’s captured the attention of the racing world for his spectacular performances as a 2yo going from strength to strength taking apart the division like no horse should have the licence to do so whilst being under the guidance of the master and resurgent trainer Cecil, a man the public admires and respects so whether you’re against Frankel or with him tomorrow would be fitting if he came home to lift the roof off Newmarket

After working on the 2000 Guineas part 1 using a varied method of tests involving speed ratings, dosage index, ground conditions, racing style and so forth there are two potential horses’s to take down the monumental reputation of the favourite, the first is SAAMIDD. There was something about this colt by Street Cry which set him apart from the others and it wasn’t that he was nicknamed Pegasus, with the looks of a champion he had the glowing reports to go with them having almost the perfect preparation towards the 2000 Guineas having demolished a Maiden at Newbury before winning the Champagne but was subject to a devastating performance in the Dewhurst.

Having been over shadowed during the winter months with the purchase of Dubai Prince and Casamento this young buck has certainly slipped the attentions of many given his 33/1 price especially considering he was always touted as a 3 year old and you couldn’t have wanted a more talented and confident young man in Mickael Barzalona taking the ride who wouldn’t be under any pressure seemingly being Godolphin’s second choice yet we know that’s accounted for nothing in the past.

The second horse is BROOX, trained by Eoghan O’Neill is currently a very speculative 150-1 shot and would almost certainly be looking to play for the places with him although stranger things have happened with the statistics showing there are big priced places available in 2000 Guineas if you look in the right areas. This horse was a fast finishing 4th off a strong gallop in the Prix Morny last year won by Dream Ahead in which the race has worked out very well, he’ll appreciate being drawn alongside pacemaker Rerouted on a quick surface and the chance of catching the field napping is certainly well worth taking the chance at the prices as he looks the more likely stayer of the two into the final furlong over a mile.

Probable Finishing Order

1st – Frankel

2nd – Saamidd

3rd – Broox

4th – Pathfork/Casamento

Am on PATHFORK at 14s so i hope he can do it tomorrow.As long as he gets a good start and travels in the race good he can beat Frankel.

to win by over 1.5L @ 2/1 (Tote)

Agree completely, much the best bet I’ve seen.
If he hasn’t got more than 3lbs in hand of these, then it’s time to give up the game.

Just watched The Morning Line on Channel 4 +1.

My assumptions (see previous post) regarding Frankie choosing Casamento with a view to Epsom appear to be true. He thinks Saamidd has more speed, but Casamento could prove a better horse later on in the season over further.

He even made Saamidd his e/w charity bet (suggested he was overpriced).

I have taken Frankel on with Pathfork and have always been keen on Saamidd, but it certainly hasn’t escaped me that Frankel could be special, so have taken him to win by 2.75 – 4.5L.

I have to say, Pathfork looked really well in himself this morning.