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What I find is that both Frankel and Pathfork have such strong form and a massive difference in price would see me sway Pathfork, with Casamento’s Racing Post Trophy looking strong as well considering Pathfork beat Casamento you would have to think 5/1 is really good value with a horse who is going to act on a firm surface, very good renewal I think has the makings of a New Approach, Henrythenavigaor and Ravens Pass feel too it.
Is Casamento running in this? 16’s looks massive too.
I’ve had a small bet EW at 50s on
We were all on him at Epsom on Derby Day when he was not given the best of rides but still thought he was a decent horse.Could go well
- Total Posts 17716
Some Guineas work I’ve been putting together this morning, inputting into WordPress is a pain in the backside!
Almost with an apology – sorry, at 5/8 and hyped to the stars, I’m just feeling sceptical about the big Frankel.
At the odds, that would make him 64 times likelier than Saamidd to win the 2000. OK, S’s odds are rather ante-post-ish (40/1), but the ratio will possibly stay in the same region of unreasonable until the off.
Frankel is an impressive horse going by his wins and looks; he’s beaten every other he’s raced against, which is ‘mixed’, but all you could ask.
As his opponents haven’t performed that well, I guess we have to turn to times.
Do you guys think his times have been superlative?
Below are my speed ratings for some of the runners in the 2000 Guineas.
I think Frankel is worth taking on at the current odds as he is no value at all.
Frankel bt Glor na mara 5 lenghts
Pathfork bt Glor na mara 1.5 lenghts
then bt Casamento a head and glor na mara by 11 lenghts
At the current odds Pathfork is 5/1
Casamento 16/1
the way godolphin horses are running I think If he runs I would like to have a bet on Casamento @ 16s also Fury might be worth a look @ 16sCasamento (IRE)
140.00 1
114.00 1
105.00 2
106.00 1
Frankel
125.00 1
143.00 1
132.00 1
133.00 1
91.00 1
Fury
122.00 1
92.00 1
Native Khan (FR)
129.00 1
133.00 4
113.00 1
112.00 1
Pathfork (USA)
105.00 1
114.00 1
114.00 1
Roderic O’Connor (IRE)
135.00 1
138.00 2
106.00 1
99.00 3
Saamidd
101.00 6
115.00 1
104.00 1Casamento confirmed for the race this afternoon. Frankie will ride.
Saamidd will also run, ridden by Mickael Barzalona.
Just taken the 16/1 each way Casamento.
Al Zarooni is in cracking form since he’s come back. Although coming here is seen as an aftrer thought by some, it could be the best move for the horse. Just because Casamento won the "two year old staying race", Racing Post Trophy; he’s been considered a Derby horse. But some horses don’t get any further at three. and he’s not bred to get that trip anyway. By Shamardal (miler / 10f) out of Wedding Gift (by Always Fair) who won at up to a mile. Casamento’s year younger half brother Inler (by Red Ransom) failed to stay in the 2000. Only the dam’s grand dam ran at 1 1/2 miles and is half sister to the great Vaguely Noble. However, both male and female sides of this family look predominately milers. Shamardal’s sire Giants Causeway and Always Fair’s sire being Danzig.
Casamento’s relaxed nature will probably let him stay a bit further than 1m, but he should be effective at a mile this early in the year. To come here instead of the Dante must mean he’s showing something at home. Form of the Racing Post is beginning to work out well. With third Master Of Hounds just failed to last home when pipped by Khawlah in the Group 2 UAE Derby. She is well fancied for the Oaks. Fourth, Native Khan won the Craven with a bit to spare. And fifth home Dunboyne Express, won the Group 3 Leopardstown 2000 Guineas Trial easily. Seville (in second) is one woth keeping an eye out for and I’ve backed him for the Derby.
Got his work cut out to beat an in form Frankel, but it is still possible (possible not probable) Cecil’s star might pull too hard at a mile. Casamento looks a good each way bet at 16/1.
Value Is EverythingFYI, if your horse finishes 2nd in ANY race at Newmarket this Saturday, Boylesports will refund your losing bet which is a fantastic offer IMO.
Offer applies to day-of-race markets only (ie from about tomorrow lunchtime)
They are currently best price on
Pathfork (5/1)
Native Khan (12/1)
Casamento (16/1)NB – this may NOT apply to shops so check terms & conditions
Frankel by three lengths! Does that mean he will be ridden out to the line? He won’t swoop to win on the nod? To win the Guineas by three is some task.Another StS.What a wonderful prospect for the flat year.Looking forward to it.Finally Galileo gets a Guineas winner to go with his Derby and St.Leger winners.
Galileo has already sired a guineas winner……..
http://www.irishracing.com/v5rhfinfo?prc=084&prd=200605281535
Andy I’m not sure if you’re being sarcastic
or not 
lol…frankel’s a grinder with awesome mid-race pace and power…he’s not a "typical" high-class miler in the sense he doesn’t travel strongly on the bit and unleash a devastating turn of foot, a la Barathea..Pennekamp…Canford Cliffs (add yer own..) so as nothing will be able to live with him he will surge away from the field before the dip, making 3&1/4L+ a distinct possibility - Total Posts 17716
The barrier draw is the first real reason I’ve found to be turned off Frankel at all. Gate one is not ideal. Let the tactical games begin!
Was Sea the Stars a "typical" high class miler? Of course not, but good enough to win the Guineas.And not just because the field was poor.He would have beaten any "typical" miler that day in my opinion.So perhaps "typical" is not the new normal guineas horse so to speak.
Top 3 in the betting 1,2,3 stall number.
Pacemaker for Frankel is posted 13…that is important as rerouted may not get over from the stall to dictate which means Roderic O Conner will make the pace.
The french race he won has worked out well bar rerouted running well in the free handicap.
HMMMMMMMMM
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