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I’ve always put Rip’s loss to Poet’s Voice down to the Good to Soft conditions. Aidan O’Brien has always called him a fast ground horse, and his form reflects that.
Canford Cliffs beat him easily, but once again Aidan said that he would bring Rip along slowly last year, and I think they were expecting him to come on from that run (this was 2nd up after beaten almost 8 lengths at Ascot). CC would have still probably beat him though.
I think RVW was as good at 4 as he was at 3, but he just had bad luck. He didn’t strike rain-affected tracks at all at 3. At 4 they took it easy on him early (Ascot and Sussex) when the tracks were dry, then at his peak won the International Stakes and ran into 2 wet tracks at the Irish Champion & QEII.There is always some hueristic explanation for him winning (except that he was the fastest in the race,check the times of the losers).
I’m not knocking Ballydoyle for doing it, it’s simply called tactics. Look at Sunday. The guy who qualified in 3rd won the race and beaten the faster car because of their differing tactics. They’re primarily a breeding operation and will target races and make entries into others to make certain stallions look particularly appealling. I’m not sure we’ll hear Aidan say ‘Listen, Rishi, this boy’s got speed for a Queen Anne’ after Fame and Glory wins the Ascot Gold Cup though…
Horses must first win races to be attractive stallions.They must be the best at the distance they win at.
This is an extract from an earlier post I submitted:
‘Galileo has already proven that, when bred to a certain type of broodmare, he can produce progeny with speed.
New Approach was a dual Guineas runner-up, while Rip Van Winkle and Lush Lashes were both successful at the highest level over eight furlongs. The latter duo were out of dams by Stravinsky and Anabaa, respectively. Speed. Speed. Speed.
Frankel, like Roderic O’Connor, is out of a Danetime mare. Both will not be found wanting for speed, especially Frankel. His dam Kind was a listed winner over five and six furlongs. They both pulled clear of Glor Na Mara in the Dewhurst. He was placed at Group One level over six and seven furlongs and is from the family of Dansili, by a sire who excelled over six and eight furlongs in the US.’
I have no doubt that Galileo can produce a Guineas winner. He looks to have an excellent chance this year.
I just wish there were more stallions with a speed influence represented in this years renewal at the head of the market.
On the topic of Rip Van Winkle, it wasn’t until connections adopted different tactics that he started to win top class races over eight furlongs.
He would settle in the slipstream of a pacemaker, take up the running about three furlongs from home, build up a distinct advantage and prove hard to catch.
This worked in the Sussex Stakes and QEII (albeit without an official pacemaker). They tried to repeat the same tactics at Goodwood last year, but Canford Cliffs (natural miler) possessed far too much speed and won a shade cosily.
Rip Van Winkle wasn’t the same horse at four as he was at three, if you are not of this opinion you’d have to believe that Canford Cliffs would have cantered all over Sea The Stars too. Wouldn’t have happened.
Rip Van Winkle wasn’t the same horse at four as he was at three, if you are not of this opinion you’d have to believe that Canford Cliffs would have cantered all over Sea The Stars too. Wouldn’t have happened.
I talked about Rip around 4 or so posts ago. Rip was second up after his debut at Ascot. First up he was beaten almost 8 lengths by Goldikova and Paco Boy, and well beaten by the likes of Dream Eater, Zacinto, and Dalghar. After the Sussex Aidan said, "He progressed lovely from Ascot which we though he would. There is still more to come though and he will progress again.”
He then won the International Stakes somewhat erratically (but still impressively when he did get going), before striking wet tracks (Irish Champion track had some cut despite the official reading attached to it) at his next two.In contrast he struck no wet tracks at 3.
Galileo also sired Teofilo who was unbeaten in five races at two including the Dewhurst where he beat Holy Roman Emperor who had won the big 2yo race at the Arc meeting.HRE was rushed off to stud when George Washington failed to produce.Probably the first disagreement Aidan had with big John.He was sure that HRE would make a great three year old and was aiming him for the Guineas.So Galileo gets fast two yos if not three yos.He might get first and second in this year’s Guineas.
This is an extract from an earlier post I submitted:
‘Galileo has already proven that, when bred to a certain type of broodmare, he can produce progeny with speed.
New Approach was a dual Guineas runner-up, while Rip Van Winkle and Lush Lashes were both successful at the highest level over eight furlongs. The latter duo were out of dams by Stravinsky and Anabaa, respectively. Speed. Speed. Speed.
Frankel, like Roderic O’Connor, is out of a
Danetime
mare. Both will not be found wanting for speed, especially Frankel. His dam Kind was a listed winner over five and six furlongs. They both pulled clear of Glor Na Mara in the Dewhurst. He was placed at Group One level over six and seven furlongs and is from the family of Dansili, by a sire who excelled over six and eight furlongs in the US.’
I assume that “Danetime” was just a slip of the typing finger, and that you meant Danehill. Although Danehill was a fast horse, as a stallion his best progeny have mostly been horses who stayed pretty well. Of his top twenty by Racing Post Rating, only Mozart and Fastnet Rock were sprinters. Thirteen of the twenty excelled over twelve furlongs or more; Westerner, Desert King, Dylan Thomas, Duke of Marmalade, Peeping Fawn, Tiger Hill, North Light, Distinction, Elvstroem, Zipping, Mountain High, etc.
As for Kind, she was never tried over a distance greater than seven furlongs, so we don’t know how far she might have stayed; after all her dam was a Lancashire Oaks winner by Rainbow Quest. From race descriptions, she seemed happy to settle in a race, but if you know you can win good races at six and seven furlongs, there may be a temptation to do just that and no more.
If it was all down to breeding Frankel would stay twelve furlongs, but he races like a sprinter/miler. So, is he another Mill Reef or Nijinsky who were both dynamite over six furlongs as a two year old and stayed well, or will his style of racing stop him winning over a longer trip? Only an accident can stop him winning the Guineas. I just hope maturity will allow him to race over further later in the year and we can judge if he is a great miler or an exceptional racehorse like Mill Reef or Nijinsky.
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It’s funny people question Frankels stamina when 9 times out of the 10 all the stamina laced horses finish nowhere in the Derby and come on for the St Ledger.
We’ve been blessed with Sea The Stars and Frankel in such a short space of time, I think people are doubting that this can’t happen so soon after a great.
So many knockers of Frankel in his short career, everyone wants to get him beat because he’s a public horse, theres nothing thrilling about going with the majority.
What I find interesting about Frankel is his prepartaion as a 2 year old last year, almost asif Henry Cecil couldn’t decide whether he had a Derby or Guineas horse on his hands which was shown by the distances he ran ove; 8f – 7f – 8f – 7f.
The only hope you’ve got is if Henry hasn’t completely ruled out the Derby in this horses preperations from the back end of last year to date, I don’t genuinly believe he has.
Class previals over stamina during the 3 year old campaign, I can’t see Frankel getting beat over 8-10f.
Frightening he was only begining his race at the winning post in Greenham, half asleep throughout the race and still yet to be asked a question. wow!
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I think there is every chance Frankel will get the Derby trip.
People have stated that Rip Van Winkle was best as a miler but don’t forget he ran a blinder in the Eclipse over ten furlongs and apart from the Derby he was never given a chance to prove his stamina over twelve furlongs as he was campaigned over a mile, not everyone agreed with that policy certainly I didn’t at the time and looking back now I still see no indication that Rip would’ve been a non stayer over twelve furlongs.
Frankel got a mile well as a two year old he was never stopping at the end of his races infact you could argue he never really had to get going. In the Greenham he gave a strong impression that he’d be better over further even though he had more speed than the runner up who is bred to be a sprinter / seven furlong horse.
Its possible he could just be one of those freak horses that come along every once in a while – the likes of Nijinsky, Mill Reef, Dancing Brave that all had an abundance of speed yet all had stamina.
Frankel has Galileo as a sire he stayed twelve furlongs and even on his damn’s side there is stamina.
9/10 horses that have his sort of speed don’t stay admittedly but then 9/10 horses aren’t greats are they? I can understand why people think he won’t stay but I think he’s at least as likely to as he is unlikely.
In reference to Sea The Stars that a previous poster mentioned – he was a twelve furlong horses really with the speed for ten furlongs. The only reason he won over a mile as a three year old was because he ran in a truely awful Guineas. When you look at the runner up Delegator I never had him as anything better than a 118 / 119 horse.
I got a great bet
Roderic O Conner to win w/o Frankel
Reasoning:
Roderic O Conner raced up with the pace in the Dewhurst and looked like he was going very well indeed before the Monster picked him up. He is simply straightforward good moving son of Galileo….no Rip Van Winkle’s about this fella what so ever. He can run from the front with Juddmonte Pacemaker or sit in behind and just take it up when the lad is about to tire. As Nick Mordin has said their is still a wee doubt over Frankel staying ability and i stress wee. He smashed Rerouted by 6 1/2l in France last year and he ran to a RP rating of 107 and Frankel on 126…..2lb a length? that a fair scale?…puts ROC around 120 after 4 runs and potential to improve and most importantly raced at Newmarket unlike the only other rival in Pathfork who has raced in a long time and has to be waited with he may get unbalanced and come home late. I get a bit of the Henrythenavigtors with this horse. He wont beat Frankel imo but @11/4 to win in the W/O market looks incredibly tastyWere Rip van Winkle and Mastercraftsman such bad milers that you use them to deny that Sea the Stars won a decent Guineas.This is getting absurd.Rip van Winkle won two Group One races over a mile as a three year old I believe. The Sussex and the Q E 11 stakes.Mastercraftsman won the St. James Palace stkes.Both were soundly beaten by StS in the Guineas.So what more did StS have to beat over a mile to prove that he was the best miler of his generation?
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Were Rip van Winkle and Mastercraftsman such bad milers that you use them to deny that Sea the Stars won a decent Guineas.This is getting absurd.Rip van Winkle won two Group One races over a mile as a three year old I believe. The Sussex and the Q E 11 stakes.Mastercraftsman won the St. James Palace stkes.Both were soundly beaten by StS in the Guineas.So what more did StS have to beat over a mile to prove that he was the best miler of his generation?
I don’t believe O’Brien’s horses were forward enough for the Guineas (which was feared at the time). You have to rate that race around Delegator who can’t suddenly sprout wings in order to justify a lofty rating, he was a close second yet could barely win another race afterwards certainly not a group one.
I don’t believe that years crop of horses were very good fullstop, Fame And Glory can only win when able to bully his opposition, put him in a big field competitive race i.e. Arc and he finishes out of the places all the time, Canford Cliffs came out and toyed with Rip Van Winkle following season. Sea The Stars was a top class mile and a half horse for me but beat a poor lot over a mile.
To revolve a race around Delegator who was transfered to the most inept training regime in world racing after the Guineas is bad judgement in the extreme
This is an extract from an earlier post I submitted:
‘Galileo has already proven that, when bred to a certain type of broodmare, he can produce progeny with speed.
New Approach was a dual Guineas runner-up, while Rip Van Winkle and Lush Lashes were both successful at the highest level over eight furlongs. The latter duo were out of dams by Stravinsky and Anabaa, respectively. Speed. Speed. Speed.
Frankel, like Roderic O’Connor, is out of a
Danetime
mare. Both will not be found wanting for speed, especially Frankel. His dam Kind was a listed winner over five and six furlongs. They both pulled clear of Glor Na Mara in the Dewhurst. He was placed at Group One level over six and seven furlongs and is from the family of Dansili, by a sire who excelled over six and eight furlongs in the US.’
I assume that “Danetime” was just a slip of the typing finger, and that you meant Danehill. Although Danehill was a fast horse, as a stallion his best progeny have mostly been horses who stayed pretty well. Of his top twenty by Racing Post Rating, only Mozart and Fastnet Rock were sprinters. Thirteen of the twenty excelled over twelve furlongs or more; Westerner, Desert King, Dylan Thomas, Duke of Marmalade, Peeping Fawn, Tiger Hill, North Light, Distinction, Elvstroem, Zipping, Mountain High, etc.
As for Kind, she was never tried over a distance greater than seven furlongs, so we don’t know how far she might have stayed; after all her dam was a Lancashire Oaks winner by Rainbow Quest. From race descriptions, she seemed happy to settle in a race, but if you know you can win good races at six and seven furlongs, there may be a temptation to do just that and no more.
It should be noted that Danehill was responsible for both Rock Of Gibraltar and George Washington, who were also successful in the Gimcrack, Railway and Phoenix Stakes between them.
I would consider that quite an influence on speed, particularly George Washington – out of a mare who won over thirteen furlongs.
Kind is by Danehill (can sire top class middle distance horses), out of a Lancashire Oaks winner and is a half-sister to Powerscourt (Group winner over twelve furlongs). Clearly, Danehill was the speed influence behind this sprintng mare.
She is also the dam of Bullet Train. He won the Lingfield Derby Trial last season, but Henry Cecil is of the opinion that he doesn’t truly stay beyond ten furlongs – he certainly hasn’t appeared to stay twelve, thus far.
Now, Bullet Train is by Sadler’s Wells. If Bullet Train inherited a shred of the stamina that Kind boasts in her pedigree to compliment that of Sadler’s Wells, then he would almost certainly stay twelve furlongs.
Kind is an obvious influence on speed, like her sire (Danehill) was to her. Richard Hughes adored this mare and always insisted sprinting was her game.
The fact is that only two Guineas winners this century had previously won over eight furlongs – Refuse To Bend and Sea The Stars. Arguably, both won far from vintage renewals of the race. Colts that generally win over eight furlongs as a juvenile excel over further at three.
Frankel, like Sea The Stars, could be a bit special and stay twelve furlongs – that long stride certainly gives him every chance.
Rather than speculate on what his best trip will be, it’s a question of what his range will be at the highest level. For example, Canford Cliffs could probably be competitive in a July Cup. His range is between six and eight furlongs, likewise Dick Turpin. Rip Van Winkle was an eight / ten furlong performer, whereas Workforce will likely be aimed at the top races between ten and twelve furlongs this season.
Will Frankel turn out to be most effective between eight and ten furlongs, or excel between ten and twelve?
- Total Posts 17716
To revolve a race around Delegator who was transfered to the most inept training regime in world racing after the Guineas is bad judgement in the extreme
That said even if you gave Delegator his highest ever rating for that run you still couldn’t give Sea The Stars more than 121/122 for his Guineas run. He would’ve been blown away over a mile by the likes of George Washington, Makfi. In last years Guineas Sea The Stars would’ve finished third at best IMO.
All a game of opinions.
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