- This topic has 273 replies, 54 voices, and was last updated 13 years, 6 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Frankel was impressive yesterday, which means even more value lies in the Irish! Casamento (16s) and Pathfork (16s)! Great value for two very progressive horses.
Frankel is a potential superstar, however how anyone can have this at 5/4 ante post is beyond me, anything can happen in that space of time.
Agreed……but put it this way. If you had to have a £1000 bet to put on the race I know where you would put your money….
- Total Posts 17716
There can be little doubt with normal improvment Frankel will win the Guineas with ease. Working out the best ew bets isn’t easy and form buffs will be racking their brains trying to work it out.
If you reaaly think 5/4 is stingy lay him at 2/1 and see how long it takes before your bottle goes.
Furthermore you seem to be saying the better bet is to back the 16/1 shots you mention.
Realistically neither is likely to win and the chances of both making the race and taking 2nd and 3rd are next to nothing. You would need to be very very lucky
So you have 100 quid ew on both and stake 400 quid and one of them finished 2nd or 3rd and the other unplaced or doesn’t run,
You would win how much? 100 pounds. So you have just managed to turn a 16/1 shot into a 1/4 shot. If by some miracle both get placed you would have won 600 pounds.
Put your 400 pounds on Frankel and you would win 500 pounds.
Basically what I am saying is there’s a far greater chance of Frankel winning than both your selections being placed.
If however Frankel doesn’t train on get’s injured or for some other reason doesn’t run and that is what your idea hinges on then you could get lucky and find you had backed a 16/1 winner.
If howver you backed only one and he was placed then you make 300 pounds more than you would have backing Frankel.
Only preoblem with that is Wootton Bassett will beat both your selections whether Frankel is in the race or not
In anormal year he’d be my selection without hesitation and I have already backed him ew.I’d be much more concerened about what AOB is going to come up with as I would the two you mention.
The horse Frankel has in common with Casamento and Pathfork is Glor Na Mara but he ran a stinker that day. Jim Bolger was very quick to defend the horse saying that wasn’t him and he expected a much better run in the Dewhurst.
Most would agree with that as he was beaten 10 lengths further than when he previously ran Pathfork to 1 1/2 lengths.
He’s run a good race as he predicted finishing the same distance ahead of Waiter’s dream than Saamidd did when he beat him.
On that evidence there can’t be much between Saamidd and Pathfork as Saamidd beat Waiters Dream much easier than Pathfork beat Glor Na Mara who was flat out yesterday. If anything I’d say Saamidd would come up with the length or so and more that the form suggests he has find on Pathfork.
From that for once I just about agree with Timeform who have it nearly spot on even if the other way round to what I’m suggesting.
I doubt if there’s much between them and none of it stacks up to indicate they could possibly beat Frankel.
Of course much is down to which horses improve and which don’t but the way I see it Frankel has as much chance of doing that than the next horse.
I’m with you on the EW bet but not 2 as i really can’t see Frankel losing.
There can be little doubt with normal improvment Frankel will win the Guineas with ease. Working out the best ew bets isn’t easy and form buffs will be racking their brains trying to work it out.
If you reaaly think 5/4 is stingy lay him at 2/1 and see how long it takes before your bottle goes.
You can
LAY him at 6/4
at the moment and anyone who plays big should lump on,if i was in the Fist league of stakes and had thousands to invest on betting i would have £4k on him at the price as i am in the camp who believes Frankel will be a major dissapointment as a 3yo! He"s got a bit of temperament i dont like and the cross nose bands on for a reason! He has absolutely no scope for improvement in fact he is a dissapointing looking colt,far too Pony like and "Square" to the eye! Some might argue that he wont need to improve to win the Guineas,i am of the opinion that he might not train on in fact he reminds me of a clone of
Diesis
and
Xaar
! Diesis Physically,Xaar Mentally! As this is a Guineas thread i wont even mention his chances of running in the Derby never mind winning it! TAPK rules Ante-Post so lets see how far off the mark he is with this one!
Frankly I thought he was laboring in the closing stages of the race unlike ROConner (maiden winner) who continued his fluid stride to the finish under a cushy ride from Murtagh.Incidentally how did Frankel get into the center of the track?Take away the irish runners and Frankel looks awesome.Don’t believe he is all he is made out to be.Cant believe what jockeys say. What did Buick say after Dream Ahead’s previous run?Unbelievable i believe it was!!!!
Frankly I thought he was laboring in the closing stages of the race unlike ROConner (maiden winner) who continued his fluid stride to the finish under a cushy ride from Murtagh.Incidentally how did Frankel get into the center of the track?Take away the irish runners and Frankel looks awesome.Don’t believe he is all he is made out to be.Cant believe what jockeys say. What did Buick say after Dream Ahead’s previous run?Unbelievable i believe it was!!!!
Roderic O’Connor was kept up to his work whereas Frankel was never once given a crack with the whip.
Frankel is leagues above the runner up. Not much went right for Frankel on the day but he still won with relative ease.
When he gets a fast early pace to run off and a sound surface only then will we see just how good this horse is.
When he gets….. only then….Some kind of fortune teller?Please God make it come true.With the right ground and the correct gallop and with the horse developing into a three year old and no interference at the start and only the locals to beat; irish and french please stay at home,he will be a wonder.
When he gets….. only then….Some kind of fortune teller?Please God make it come true.With the right ground and the correct gallop and with the horse developing into a three year old and no interference at the start and only the locals to beat; irish and french please stay at home,he will be a wonder.
Well he’s better than anything else without things going his way – thats the point.
No horse is ever going to run to its peak every time he sees a racecourse its practically impossible and its clear when you watch Frankel in his races that there is so much more to come. He led way out at Ascot because they weren’t going fast enough to carry him along, he had to cope with truely awful ground in his maiden, he ran all over his two much inferior opponents at Doncaster – and yet not once has he yet had to be driven to win a race.
Even if this is Frankel at his peak he’s the best juvenile in Europe but I’m pretty certain there is so much more to come. I don’t think we’ve seen anything like the best of this horse yet.
Time will tell.
- Total Posts 17716
What away to start my evening reading your gibberish
If you had the remotest idea what you were talking baout you’d be good I grant you that.First off according to Tom Queally and I quote "He has a nice temperament" I don’t know where you got your idea from but obviously Tom Queally should know better than anyone as he rides the horse.
He is neither square or pony like he’s a friggin monster to look at and very well proportioned for a 2yo.
Run the video again and look closely his withers you will notice they are slightly lowers tan his rump.
To enlighten you further that is pretty common with 2 year olds that have still some growing to do.
The more obvious it is the less likely the horse has of running more than 2 or 3 races as the weight autmaticaaly transfers onto the front legs. That is one of the main reasons they improve at 3 years as it’s no longer a factor.
If someone wants to correct me on that I’ll be glad to listen.
Look to me and my big pal Henry that Frankel has still a bit of growing to do and he should improve with it.
One thing that came out of the race was Henry thought they were going too slow for Frankel and is now on the search to buy a pacemakers for him.
If you fancy a horse now that you think will beat him TAPK I’d imagine it should at least be able to go a half decent gallop for 6 furlongs.
So please tell and I can pass it on to Henry and he can buy it because the way you are going at the moment your more likely to tip a pacemaker than a winner
I heard that!! what did you just call me?
- Total Posts 17716
When he gets….. only then….Some kind of fortune teller?Please God make it come true.With the right ground and the correct gallop and with the horse developing into a three year old and no interference at the start and only the locals to beat; irish and french please stay at home,he will be a wonder.
Well he’s better than anything else without things going his way – thats the point.
No horse is ever going to run to its peak every time he sees a racecourse its practically impossible and its clear when you watch Frankel in his races that there is so much more to come. He led way out at Ascot because they weren’t going fast enough to carry him along, he had to cope with truely awful ground in his maiden, he ran all over his two much inferior opponents at Doncaster – and yet not once has he yet had to be driven to win a race.
Even if this is Frankel at his peak he’s the best juvenile in Europe but I’m pretty certain there is so much more to come. I don’t think we’ve seen anything like the best of this horse yet.
Time will tell.
Exactly Ian. It’s amazing how quickly punters forget. This was the "creme de la creme" the wone e were all waiting for. We lost Saamid beore the race but AOB’s poved to be more than an able substitute.
Frankel was so superior without any great urging from TQ he’s burst Dream Ahead comletely who then collapses in a heap and then nice as you like he goes past AOB’s at will.
Take everything you say into consideration plus a few other things that weren’t exactly in his favour and i don’t know what people expected him to do more.
The race can be skinned, chooped up minced and put back together anyway they like Frankel destroyed them simple as.
I hope that Casamento is left with Mick Halford. If he is running for Godolphin next year we can put a line through him.
There’s an increased chance that Pathfork will go for this now that he is out of the Breeders Cup Juvenile. His owners were keen on running him in the Kentucky Derby.
I heard that!! what did you just call me?
I like your passion Fist.you are a valued contributor to this forum in my opinion! History shows that you know **** all about flat racing where as my good self is a bit of a legend!
Modesty forbids and that! Between us we probably have 100yrs knowledge of horses,25yrs of mine,the rest from your good self! 
On this occassion we have an opinion of a horse that is miles apart,i respect what he has achieved at 2,my concern is what he does at 3 and in my opinion he will fail! Frankel fails miserably in the looks department alone. Zafonic, El Gran senor, Dancing Brave, Nashwan, Kings Best, George Washington all had the X factor in looks, Nah i"m afraid your confidence in this horse is becoming obsessive and i"m prepared to put my neck on the line to say so! By the way i still haven"t had a bet in the race as Dream Ahead has spoiled his copybook and the excuses are baffling!- Total Posts 17716
There’s too many good horses to call it. I will imagine by the Guineas Dunboyne Express, Pathfork, Wooton Bassett, Dream Ahead will all be there abouts. Casamento if he stays with Micky Halford could be anything over 1m-1m2f and Alanza could be anything if he comes to England in May.
Is at the mercy of Frankel.
Ballydoyle’s are all Middle Distance horse’s and Godolphin can’t win a Classic. Dream Ahead is a sprinter and Casemento and Dunboyne Express will either be aimed for the Irish Guineas or the in the case of the first horse send to dubai for the winter. Pathfork isn’t in the same league as Frankel although he is a very good horse in his won right. Frankel is just different league to these other very good juveniles
Frankel is a 1/3 shot on the day if he turns up
I heard that!! what did you just call me?
I like your passion Fist.you are a valued contributor to this forum in my opinion! History shows that you know **** all about flat racing where as my good self is a bit of a legend!
Modesty forbids and that! Between us we probably have 100yrs knowledge of horses,25yrs of mine,the rest from your good self! On this occassion we have an opinion of a horse that is miles apart,i respect what he has achieved at 2,my concern is what he does at 3 and in my opinion he will fail! Frankel fails miserably in the looks department alone. Zafonic, El Gran senor, Dancing Brave, Nashwan, Kings Best, George Washington all had the X factor in looks, Nah i"m afraid your confidence in this horse is becoming obsessive and i"m prepared to put my neck on the line to say so! By the way i still haven"t had a bet in the race as Dream Ahead has spoiled his copybook and the excuses are baffling!Dancing Brave had a parrot mouth.
It doesn’t matter what a horse looks like if it can run. Mill Reef was only small.
Dancing Brave had a parrot mouth.
It doesn’t matter what a horse looks like if it can run. Mill Reef was only small.
You mention 2 legends of the turf there Ian! In a years time Frankels name wont be among them! Group 1, Mile and half winners those 2! Frankel wont stay 11/2m in a bus! Mark my words!
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.