2000 Guineas 2017

You’re clearly a good judge and tipster, Steve, but you are also a little self-aggrandising at times. My guess is this done intentionally to wind people up.

TheGun wrote:

You’re clearly a good judge and tipster, Steve, but you are also a little self-aggrandising at times. My guess is this done intentionally to wind people up.

It’s a bit complicated to explain my style these days Gun.

It dates back to the earlier days here.

On one occasion I expressed the opinion that 2000 Guineas War Command had been blown out of the water as a candidate for the Classic when he was turned over at odds of 2/5 Fav in the Phoenix in Ireland. Argument ensued and I gave as good as I was getting regarding the reasons why he may or may not bounce back. He went on to win his next two races at odds on but was far from convincing against what I considered limited opposition. Ultimately, he just didn’t win the Guineas.

The cut and thrust of that was all well and good, although heated at times, but what I didn’t like was the person who simply replied to my initial post and expression of doubt in the horse for the following year, with the phrase “You are talking bollocks here”

What I have noticed several times since then, is that when people have strongly criticised my opinion and I have ultimately been proved correct, sometimes for the exact reason given, no admission was made by the critics that I was spot on in my thinking.

I feel that in those circumstances it is warranted to remind people that I was not “Talking Bollocks” after all.

I suppose, in a way, the quoting of previous good winners IS a wind up, but it’s only aimed that those who had a go at my input, if that makes sense. It’s a reminder that sometimes there is logic and reward in my opinions.

I have heard it said that I don’t come across as “Tongue in cheek” the way other serial confident punters on this site do. Perhaps it is because the comments ARE tongue in cheek for the General Purposes of the forum but are intended as a riposte to those who had a go at me earlier in the thread.

I am a small stakes punter these days, I have always admitted that freely from the start. I also freely admit that the nature of horse racing means that we are all more likely to be wrong than correct over the course of a lifetime punting, hence the need to maximise your odds of return. For example, Buveur D’Air is a horse I didn’t back for the Champion Hurdle but I had to take him at 3/1 early for the previous race, when Brain Power was bizarrely installed at 1/2 for the race on the initial book. Likewise this week, you could get him at Evens for his Aintree race and he’s now 2/5F.

I feel that when good opportunities like this are not acted upon by punters, it is right to point it out to them but some people seem to think you are blowing your own trumpet, rather than it being an incredulity that people don’t act on such good chances to seize some value. The horse hasn’t won it yet but all being well he will surely triumph.

People can interpret things as they wish and me telling them the reality of it won’t change their minds. Sometimes people just take a personal stance bordering on hatred for someone they have never met.

I am a mild mannered and quiet man in real life. Just the one relationship in my life, ongoing strongly after 30 years. I am an animal lover with two cats and two Guinea Pigs. All four of them love me deeply, as I do them. I put a lot of thought into what I write about horses and I like to defend my corner tenaciously. If I see something as attacking behaviour or unreasonable argument, I will respond in kind. I am not here too be a doormat for someone else’s agenda.

When people ask for my opinion I will always reply with honesty if I see the request. Sometimes I need to go back and find the race, then spend time analysing it. If people ask for a video replay I will spend time doing my best to find the race and post it for them. I would hardly say these were the actions of someone with only their own ego at work.

However, each to their own. Offence is always there on any forum, just waiting for the person(s) with the lowest tolerance to take it. I’ll never be popular on any forum because I always say what I believe in and inevitably some people won’t be happy. I was attacked on another forum because I ruled out Moon Racer for the Champion Hurdle and they bragged away about how much they were going to rub it in when the horse hosed in at 33/1 ante-post odds. I told them I would be the first to own up to getting it wrong if the horse did win it but that they should perhaps just wait until the horse had run and won first.

At times like that in Racing, when people stick two fingers up to your opinion leading into a race, I feel it is justified to stick one right back up at them when their “Better thought out” opinion goes tits up. After all, there is usually next to no chance they will actually acknowledge that their rubbishing of your opinion was misplaced.

I am actually operating on “Caution Light” mode since returning to this forum, so I am surprised anyone is taking offence really. I am trying to use winks and grins to convey that I am not serious here and just having a wee dig when I feel others are overstepping the mark.

Time will tell if the two Guineas candidates I am concerned for can win the race or not. The correct time to do the shouting about it is after the race is done and dusted.

I hope that helps explain me and my style better. I doubt it will make much difference to people who seem able to form a solid opinion about someone based on as little as a single internet post though. Such is life.

The Ante-Post King wrote:

Steve,you have given your appraisal of most of the potential 2000gns field,particularly the Coolmore army but no mention of Peace Envoy. What is your opinion of this colt please Sir?

Peace Envoy has a few negative trends to overcome.

The colt is entered in the Guineas Trial at the weekend, the distance is a mile and the ground is currently soft.

That is the first potential problem, as the horse has never run beyond 6 and 1/2F yet. He ran eight times last year and was beaten 5 times, that would have to be a negative on both the amount of runs and the amount of times he has been beaten.

Then we get to the form. The Listed race he won is 0/10 since, the Group 3 he won is 0/9 since and the Group 2 he was second in is 0/23 since. He ran a decent race in the Norfolk, but not for the first time that sprint race saw contenders who didn’t do much in the second half of the season.

Peace Envoy contested the Morny instead of Caravaggio, who initially was diverted to the Middle Park but pulled a rib muscle before that race. Peace Envoy was third in the 5 runner affair. Wesley Ward’s Ben Johnson, woops, Lady Aurelia, was favourite for the race at a red hot 2/7F and Clive Cox’s Tis Marvellous, who was clear second favourite soon made it a 4 horse race as he was insanely ridden to try to keep tabs with the USA runner in the early stages, quickly burning out. Lady Aurelia was described in the race review as “Always in command” but I felt she was tiring and ran well below her Royal Ascot form. I opposed her next time at the 4/6 odds and she was indeed beaten, into third, as my 6/1 selection went down by a short head to her rank outsider stablemate.

I see little in Peace Envoy’s form to suggest he is a Guineas horse and he would be a very atypical winner on several fronts.

He is entered up in the 2000 Guineas trial at Leopardstown on Saturday, with four others from Aidan’s yard. Jockey bookings will likely give clues to the perceived pecking order. You might expect Orderofthegarter to be the fancied one after his recent demolition job.

Peace Envoy makes no appeal to me at 33/1 for the Guineas. I have my doubts about him for the trial and unless he wins that race quite well, I can’t see him running at Newmarket.

I might back Orderofthegarter on Saturday if the odds are decent. Mick Halford’s Ambassadorial won a Listed race at Dundalk that hasn’t worked out so far with the stats 5 Runs 0 Wins 0 Places. Jim Bolger’s Zorion bounded home alone in his maiden win but the form since is 10 Runs 0 Wins 0 Places. Ger Lyons’ Glastonbury Song was expected to win a maiden at Dundalk and duly did but the form is 21 Runs 1 Win 3 Placed and 17 Unplaced since.

Orderofthegarter has the recent win, handles the ground, stays the trip. He seems the one to be with.

Peace Envoy is unlikely to be a Guineas horse in my opinion.

My glass is full of Peace Envoy,a horse Aiden incredibly compared to ‘Rock of Gibraltar’ last year.If Steves glass is half full then yours is empty Zark…But so is your head.I’d far rather read Steves negative appraisal based strictly on form and trends to someone who has to wipe their mouth everytime they open it.
I have no doubt that this ‘Sh*t’ horse is a Group 1 winner in waiting and I always felt he should have been tried over 7f as a 2yo as he always seemed to find the 5-6f too short,his last victory came over 61/2f and he wasn’t stopping.He looks like a colt who will prefer softer ground rather than the faster side of it but I have taken the view he’s a miler in the making and have backed him at 350’s down for the 2000Gns and taken 17’s for the Irish version.I can see him going to Newmarket with a run under his belt and if he does turn up,’Churchill’ who wont be fully wound up as he has that Guineas/Derby double look about him will be tested.Thanks for your appraisal though Steve I do appreciate those who make the effort.

My thinking is that a trainer of Aidan’s calibre should have sussed out that Peace Envoy needed a mile long before having had to run him eight times at Sprint distances.

Just my opinion of course.

I had a look back at Aidan’s previous winners. None of them finished for the season as early as War Decree. Late August was the earliest any of them had their final race of the season.

I also went back through the last 22 winners of the 2000 Guineas and none of them had finished up for the season as early as War Decree did. It has paid to side with horses who ran later in the year.

Jockey bookings are very interesting for Aidan’s horses in the Classic trials tomorrow. Rather surprisingly, Ryan Moore rides Taj Mahal over Orderofthegarter in the 2000G. Perhaps the jockeys have been chosen to suit the running styles of the horses, or maybe Taj Mahal has improved considerably over the winter, he was a big shell of a horse last year. Hydrangea appear to be the fourth choice in the 1000G trial, Promise To Be True is the chosen one for Ryan, she still seems to be highly regarded. Yucatan seems to be the chosen one over Capri in the Derby trial.

Seems like Caravaggio is definitely heading straight to the French Guineas. It kind of makes me think they don’t rate him too much, although I guess The Gurkha went that route.

Well, after backing a few at big odds for this, to small speculative bets it is finally time to pull the trigger on a serious bet.

I watched a shed load of French races last season and have kept an eye on a few but most of them have not been giving me the vibes. One horse now has and he’s making his reappearance tomorrow for a trainer in form.

Al Wukair is the horse and I have gone in at 16/1 in the belief that he will win tomorrow and be a likely second favourite for the Guineas.

Tomorrow he faces National Defense, who had won a maiden in style before a third to Akihiro. Maarek-Head’s colt then ran away with the Lagardere in easy fashion. I am not sure how strong that race was though and the trouble with him tomorrow is that his trainer is in very quiet form whilst Andre Fabre is 10/33 this past fortnight.

You can watch Al Wukair racing here in the Prix Isonomy over a mile at Deauville.

http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/race-replays/2/2425/

Slowly out of the stalls he sits last early doors but the jockey is never concerned, content to sit near the back with the colt going well. There were odd little bits of keenness from Al Wukair but generally speaking he was travelling comfortably and from a fair way out I was confident he was going to win.

He was a tad green once he hit the front but was always doing plenty. Given his tardy start it was a nice performance. He had a strong look of a horse who had the scope to improve, he looks to be able to quicken and he screams out as a horse who is going to better at the Newmarket mile. Overall he’s very much a blank canvas that Andre Fabre will have been starting to put some colour on over the winter.

It may all lie in tatters if National Defense goes out and blitzes him tomorrow but I feel the stable form may be a big factor and all things being equal I feel Al Wukair will win tomorrow. he should be better suited by the trip of 7F, based on National Defense having had all three of his runs at 1m last year.

Considering that Caravaggio is said to be headed straight to France later, his Guineas odds are ridiculous. I feel underwhelmed by Aidan’s colts so far this season and the fact that Orderofthegarter is being considered looks a bad sign. Churchill looks his best arrow by a mile for this target but the odds are long gone on him.

Can Al Wukair improve to match Churchill? I feel it’s possible and at 16/1 it’s got to be worth a bet for value.

Potentially, a good showing and an intent to head to Newmarket could see Al Wukair 6/1 tomorrow night. To get decent odds there always has to be question marks but I feel the ones surrounding Al Wukair are well within the realms of being answered.

For that reason, he is my final bet on this race and my only significant one.

2000 Guineas Newmarket Al Wukair 16/1 (Nap)

The race tomorrow is 2.20 UK time and the Racing Post have National Defense a stone ahead on their ratings and 10/11 Fav to 5/2 Al Wukair in their betting guide. Ze Turf have it much closer on 2.9 and 3.6 respectively. If I can get 5/2 Al Wukair tomorrow I’ll be donning my betting boots.