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That type of horse has not won a Guineas since?
Mark of Esteem 96
Kings Best 98
Golan 2001
Cockney Rebel 2007I think Nashwan was only a maiden winner also.So it is not impossible
I am not saying LB will win the Guineas but if he runs and it is fast ground his form at the moment under the right conditions does not make him a 40-1 shot. In fact i could only put for certain Churchill in front of him.
All about opinions, but good luck with your season ahead
Nashwan won twice at two Botchy. His maiden win was followed by a Listed success and he was generally thought more of as a Derby horse at that time. Opposition fell away and he was 3/1 Fav for the Guineas on the day. I did Luca Cumani’s Mark Of Distinction ante-post that year but he had a setback and had to go straight to the race having missed some work. He ran well but couldn’t quite sustain his run, finishing 4th. The Dewhurst winner from the previous season, Michael Stoute’s Ajdal, turned out to be a sprinter and Nashwan didn’t have a “Churchill” waiting in the wings as warm favourite for the Guineas.
You can’t compare Lancaster Bomber to Nashwan in any meaningful way.
I don’t really catch your point with the horses you mention above. None of them were beaten as often as Lancaster Bomber and I don’t recall any of them running at the Breeders Cup and/or in Dubai.
We will see in May how it pans out and who was correct. That’s all I am saying on it now.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I’m very glad that it wasn’t Ballydoyle’s day, and I kind of hope it will be a hint for the season
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Please keep on not being such a monster, Aiden
!Regarding Carravaggio he could be going for a 7F race at Dundalk in April
Interesting that they’re stepping him up to 7f, but not necessarily indicative that they’ll be sending him to the Guineas as Washington DC won that race last year and has been kept over sprint distances ever since. I’d expect the Aidan is planning a similar route for Caravaggio, with his main targets being the Commonwealth Cup, Nunthorpe, Abbaye, BC Turf Sprint etc.
It’s an odd race for a Guineas candidate to start in. Usually Aidan sends them straight to the race and I would anticipate Churchill going to Newmarket without a run. O’Brien has proved he can get them fit enough first time and a trial is just another race they can do without if they want to then go Irish Guineas, St James’ Palace etc as the next steps.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
A single placing would be enough to cover any expenses not covered by the Dubai Racing Club, so I think Meydan is regarded as a nice start to the season for Ballydoyle. It’s not usually on their agenda as a target for horses, particularly the older horses who are trained to peak in the second half of the season. Highland Reel took three runs last year to even place in a race. They have a very powerful team of horses this year. They usually keep a handful of older horses in training, but this year a total of 25 older horses have been kept in training, including 17 stakes winners and 7 G1 winners of 20 G1 races, ranging from sprinters (Acapulco, Easton Angel, Washington DC) to Gold Cup horses (Order of St George and Kingfisher who pulled up lame on Saturday). Also includes older fillies Minding, Alice Springs, Seventh Heaven and Somehow, it’s only in the last year or two that they have kept even one older filly in training. They had two very impressive 3yo winners in Ireland yesterday. Orderofthegarter isn’t entered in the 2000 Guineas, but he may go to Deauville a la The Gurkha. Still surprised that Cliffs of Moher who beat Orderofthegarter in a canter is not entered in the 2000 Guineas (he’s still in the betting and shortening!), and Aidan has mentioned a Derby trial for him.
It’s reasonably common knowledge that the Coolmore horses won’t be ready early in the season. That’s why I was surprised to see Highland Reel as low as 5/2 for a race he was disappointing in last year.
The punters are like moths to a flame with the O’Brien stable though and seem willing to back them regardless of how short the odds are.
Interesting to see how these older horses go for the yard this season. It’s hard to envisage anything in the yard having as good a chance as Churchill in the 2000 Guineas though. It is possible he may line up as their only runner by time race day comes.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Caravaggio an uncertain runner – let alone doubtful stayer. If he were NRNB might be worth taking a chance stamina holds out. Raced on the unfavoured side at Royal Ascot, yet still won impressively. Is imo at least as good as the Ballydoyle favourite Churchill. If no Caravaggio then Churchill is hard to oppose. Won all his races with a bit in hand. However, 6/4 isn’t my idea of an ante-post price – at least not without NRNB. Rivet doesn’t exite me, form of the Racing Post doesn’t look that good. War Decree, Cliffs Of Moher and National Defence more likely for the French version. Thunder Snow has run well in Dubai, but looks exposed as not good enough for an English Guineas – and that’s if the Dubai curse doesn’t bite. Stable companion Blue Point has the ability, but surely won’t run after finding 7f too far in Dewhurst. I seem to have thrown away some money on Seven Heavens, won in good style early on at two, but temperament seemingly got the better of him in Dewhurst. Gosden now has an apparently better fancied one in the Newmarket maiden winning Frankel colt Cracksman. Harry Angel is a horse I like, cpable of further improvement and won Group 2 Mill Reef on only second start. Though needs to settle down to get a mile, ditto Sir Dancealot. Latter’s stablemate, Swiss Storm has the conformation and pedigree and am pretty sure he’ll improve in to a top class racehorse this term. Frankel half-brother to Swiss Diva, Swiss Spirit and Swiss Dream – all sprinters by sprinters. Way Swiss Storm won a 7f Newbury maiden suggests a mile should be within his capabilities. Big two year olds usually improve significantly at three. Might come too soon in his development, be great to see David Elsworth end his career with a first English Classic winner.
Value Is EverythingI’ve had a small speculation on Utmost from the Gosden yard. The horse needs huge improvement but he won in taking style and if he lines up for one of the trials it might be interesting to see where they go with him. At 50/1 he can’t be any worse than Foundation last year for the same stable.
With the doubtful stayers in the list and horses who clearly look too slow (eg Capri) the race is ripe for something to emerge as at least an each-way punt at huge odds.
As ever, any French participation looks doubtful at best. It just doesn’t seem a priority.
I threw a few darts at the race last year and it was my later picks who did best, with Galileo Gold backed ante-post at 40/1 after reading Hugo Palmer’s positive report and his information that the horse was easy to get fit for a seasonal debut. I also added Ribchester each-way at 33/1 the night before the race and salvaged my ante-post position.
This year I did Blue Point, South Seas and Escobar but they all disappointed for various reasons. Blue Point looks a sprinter, South Seas lost his way after two good early runs and Escobar flopped on his final start but was said to have scoped badly the following day. I feel Escobar is probably better than seen so far, he did be Frankuus by 6 lengths previously and Frankuus did have Waldgeist behind when winning a Group 3 at Chantilly.
Escobar would be one of those horses I would have on a short list to bounce back but to do it in the Guineas is a mighty ask indeed.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I can see on the RP website that Pricewise has released his 2000 Guineas selection – does someone who has access to their paid stuff mind telling me who he went for? Cheers.
He went fpr Al Wukair trained by Andre Fabre
Andre Fabre was a bit below par last season, as Jean-Claude Rouget dominated the big races in France.
Al Wukair won the Prix Isonomy on his second start, which caught my attention because it is a race that La Cressonniere won the previous year.
Montjeu won the Prix Isonomy back in 1998, so there is some history of good horses running there.
I have not heard whether Al Wukair is a definite runner, Pricewise probably has much better info on that front. Whether the Colt would go straight to Newmarket or take a trial in first is another consideration.
You can still get 20/1 on him for the Guineas.
Churchill goes straight to the race, which is what you would expect with a horse who will probably go to the Derby if winning the Guineas. Searching for a price for winning both races is probably the option that makes sense if you believe in him. Bet365 go 8/1 for that double but that’s too tight for me. Minding was the same price for the Guineas/Oaks last year and I felt she was much better value at the price, as a more likely stayer, who faced a weak looking Oaks entry.
I read that Escobar goes straight to the race for Hugo Palmer, so it is assumed they still believe in the horse after his disappointing third run last season. He is 50/1 if you feel Palmer can do the double.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Have been sticking into churchill (not at any great price) will have a small play on eminent/war decree at the prices…. im behind on the market for this
Godolphin’s Boynton seems to have disappeared off the radar. Winner of the Superlative Stakes, he was a good result that day for me, as I backed him 10/1 ante-post for that race. The next time I went against him in the Vintage Stakes at Goodwood, because he had to carry a 3lb penalty and plenty agreed with me that War Decree would gain revenge, as he was heavily backed.
Boynton was only third at Goodwood but War Decree remains a leading candidate for the Guineas and the runner up that day, Thunder Snow has done plenty to frank the form.
I last heard that Boynton was going to run in the National Stakes last August but he wasn’t seen again. The trainer felt that Goodwood had not suited the colt and that a straight track was better for him. I am assuming Boynton had a setback and he sits at 40/1 for the Guineas. A huge price for a Group 2 winner when a maiden winner (Swiss Storm) sits at 12/1 and 14/1 for the race.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Nice to see Eminent being aimed at this with a likely prep in the Craven. Hope he gets there as backed him the day he won his maiden.
Nice to see Eminent being aimed at this with a likely prep in the Craven. Hope he gets there as backed him the day he won his maiden.
I like the look of Eminent but I feel he is more of a Derby type in the making. If he can finish in the first four or five at Newmarket I would expect him to head for a Derby trial in the aftermath. He looks a nice type for this year. One of the top Frankels in terms of potential in my opinion.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Nice to see Eminent being aimed at this with a likely prep in the Craven. Hope he gets there as backed him the day he won his maiden.
So pleased that Martyn Meade is considering a run for Eminent in The Craven Stakes.
I think he will win it and hopefully go on to take the 2000 Guineas also. I don’t know about The Derby that’s a long way off and I don’t want to wish the flat season away too quickly.I was at Newmarket the day he won his maiden and went to see him in the pre parade ring before he did it and loved the look of him. He looked very leggy with some growing to do and was playing up a bit (as Frankel colts often do) but his lad calmed him down and he walked into the Parade Ring as good as gold and won his race impressively pulling away on the uphill finish.
He is the horse I am most excited about as I said in my post on here around 9th March and I have 40/1 about him for the 2000 Guineas, although it’s just a small bet I’m not a big punter just love horses.
I know he has to beat Churchill who lots on here think is the winner and of course he has a massive chance, but all the horse can do is his best and the way Eminent ran down the Rowley Mile last year to win his maiden reminded me very much of Frankel. I truly believe in this horse and wish him all the success this season. It would be so nice to see a trainer like Martyn Meade turn out a Classic winner.
I will be at the Craven Meeting in a couple of weeks time and looking forward to seeing EMINENT again in the pre parade and the winners enclosure.
Good luck with following him plecornu, with you all the way. Jac
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Well, here’s a turn up for the books! Aidan happy with how Caravaggio worked at Naas the other day, and he goes straight to the Guineas at either Newmarket or Deauville.
Well, here’s a turn up for the books! Aidan happy with how Caravaggio worked at Naas the other day, and he goes straight to the Guineas at either Newmarket or Deauville.
Do we take that to mean that he isn’t ready to run yet and they are trying to buy more time?
What odds on the next announcement being that they won’t run at Newmarket and will wait for the French Guineas?
What chances that we then hear he’s not going to France and will go straight to the Commonwealth Cup?
Part of the original reasoning for the Dundalk race was that it was over 7F and would give them some information regarding whether he is likely to stay a mile or not. Has that magically resolved itself now and he is cast iron to get a mile? If so, that sort of buggers up people’s Commonwealth Cup bets.
Call me a sceptic but……
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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