2000 Guineas 2017

Surprised you never got on at the 33s the other week before pricewise tipped him up, touch short at 14s for me.

A very taking performance from Al Wukair. Slowly away again today he ended up in last spot. Perhaps a bit tapped for toe at one stage it looked like he had almost no chance at one stage. National Defense was better placed and his jockey had a quick look around to make sure it was OK for him to come across to the inside and take up the running. At this stage it looked bad for Al Wukair in behind horses. However the jockey just decided to avoid any potential traffic problems by taking the horse wide of the field and he started coming with a run on the outside.

Al Wukair finished really well, looking like he might not get to National Defense, who had first run but he kept going and picked off the Lagardere winner in good style. Considering the circumstances today it needed a really good horse to win from there. He’s beaten a group 1 winner and looked as if the extra furlong will suit him very well. He must be a 120 colt in my opinion and I am delighted with that today.

National Defense is a fine looking colt and will find his level, maybe a French Guineas horse. Caravaggio is going to have to good to beat the Maarek-Head colt if he turns up.

Meanwhile Al Wukair is now as short as 5/1 for the 2000 Guineas.

I was confident he would be a contender after today. I hope some people had a few quid at 16/1.

It was a very good run by Al Wukair, certainly given where he had to come from, but National Defense seemed to be rather an unwilling partner in the last couple of furlongs, running in fits and starts?

If you take Al Wukair out of the race and watch National Defense. He puts daylight between himself and the remainder of the field in the closing stages, he ends up the “winner” by two and a half lengths in that imaginary scenario. Fits and starts or not, he becomes a winner at god knows how short for the 2000 Guineas if nominated for the race.

The reality is that Al Wukair finishes the race the better and he’s on top, ears pricked at the finish, giving the impression that at a mile he would have won further still.

That’s good enough for me.

8/1 Al Wukair is great value still. Caravaggio is shorter and he’s not even going to be running in the damn race.

Stan James are predictably shortest but I feel they have it correct with Al Wukair 4/1 and Caravaggio 10/1.

Andre Fabre said after the race:-

“I think it was a useful race and I was delighted by the style in which he won,” said Fabre. “Gregory was niggling all the time but when he picked him up he quickened really well. I am happy and the second is a pretty good horse.”

He went on to expand:-

“I realise that seven furlongs is a bit sharp for him so, with all that put together I am happy and we will go for the Guineas,”

If Aidan is switching Caravaggio here, it is a sure sign he is concerned that Churchill may not be up to it. Caravaggio was supposed to start at Dundalk over 7F but then it was decided to go straight to a Guineas. There was then talk of the French Guineas or Commonwealth Cup, then just the French Guineas.

I think it’s time to accept that they don’t have a clue what they are doing with the horse. I know I would be majorly concerned to see Caravaggio line up at Newmarket if I was sitting on ante-post tickets with Churchill.

Aidan said on Saturday evening that Orderofthegarter would probably go to the Irish 2000 Guineas next, with Churchill going to Newmarket and Caravaggio to France. That is Plan A according to the trainer. Of course these things can change but it’s not normally the case that Plan A is abandoned for a good reason!

Looking at the 2000 Guineas betting and the current plans we have major league doubts on:-

Caravaggio
War Decree
Orderofthegarter
National Defense (Definitely stays in France according to the trainer)
Snow Thunder
Cliffs Of Moher

Looking at the others, Rivet’s form got kicked in both nuts via Yucatan.

You are pretty much left with Swiss Storm, who is a maiden winner sitting at ridiculous looking value of as low as 12/1, compared to Al Wukair at 16/1 this morning. Swiss Storm’s maiden doesn’t look much for now, and he is rated 86 on RPR for now. Al Wukair is currently rated 117 with the same Ratings System.

Wouldn’t you go with the French horse with a gun at your head?

You can still get 8/1 Al Wukair. That will look huge on Guineas day in my opinion. Damn, Iv’e talked myself into another wager.

Al Wukair 8/1 looks serious value.

Ballydoyle have three highly regarded horses to fit into two Guineas, they have to double up in one of the Guineas and that’s unlikely to be the French one. Churchill is a definite for the Guineas, he’ll definitely get a mile and he’s proven at Newmaket. That leaves either Caravaggio or War Decree to accompany him. War Decree needs good ground, the better the better, so I’d say he’ll go to Newmarket if the ground is better than good, and they will take a chance on waiting on the ground for Caravaggio in the French Guineas as he is proven on soft ground, in fact he seemed to relish it in the Coventry and at the Curragh. Aidan repeated his concerns about him staying the mile in his Stable Tour yesterday, and how he will drop back to sprinting if he doesn’t, whereas he is more hopeful of War Decree staying the mile. In his Stable Tour, he said Caravaggio will go to either Newmarket or France. He also said the same for War Decree, They aren’t going to reveal any more than that until the first week of May, anything we think or say in the meantime is mere surmising.

Cliffs of Moher is going for a Derby trial, he seems to be their main Derby horse (Churchill aside for the moment). Rivet doesn’t handle Newmarket, he’s also Coolmore co-owned, so very unlikely they’ll send him. Orderofthegarter has never been mentioned for Newmarket, he is indeed earmarked for the Irish Guineas.

I think Snow Thunder is definitely going for the Kentucky Derby, think I read that yesterday.

Yucatan was huge on Saturday, he has grown a lot over the winter and was carrying serious condition. Aidan singled him out as saying that he expects him to improve considerably. However, Cliffs of Moher seems to be ahead of him in the pecking order for the Derby (still surprised he isn’t being considered for a Guineas, he was so superior to Orderofthegarter over 7f last year).

Good call on Al Wukair Steve . Andre Fabre loves nothing better than bringing over a good horse to win our 2000 Guineas, he’s a serious contender.

I’m still only rooting for one horse though and that’s Eminent he’s got a bit to prove with some of the big guns but I haven’t been so certain of a horse running a big race in the 2000 Guineas since Dawn Approach and am surprised 40/1 Is still available.
Not sure if he’s running in the Craven next Thursday can’t seem to find any betting for that race, does anyone know?
Jac

If you could nail your colours to just one horse in the 2000 Guineas Steve who would it be and why?

Thanks Steve I know Eminent is up against it but horses do nothing but spring surprises and whoever is the winner of the Craven Stakes will be highly toted by bookies but that double hasn’t been achieved since Haafhd won both races in 2004, not sure if Martyn Meade is going to run him yet but would like to see him have a run before the Guineas hopefully next week.

So many ifs and buts around the O’Brien runners I will definitely have a saver on Al Wukair after that performance as I know how dangerous it is to ignore any horses brought over by Fabre and he loves winning at Newmarket. Good luck with him Steve. Jac

Not sure if he’s running in the Craven next Thursday can’t seem to find any betting for that race, does anyone know?

ATR quote the trainer as saying “Craven or Feilden Stakes”

http://www.attheraces.com/news/2017/April/11/eminent-poised-for-test-of-classic-credentials-at-craven-meeting

I can’t find any betting markets, none on oddschecker but also had a look on a few that tend to be the first to price up but haven’t come across any.

Rivet is Craven bound