2000 Guineas 2016

Aidan O’Brien reported that Hit It A Bomb may head for the French 2000 Guineas. Richard Fahey has said that Ribchester will likely go there as well if he’s deemed good enough. The horse has an entry in the Prix Djebel at Maisons Laffitte next week and the 7f trip should tell them where to go with him.

I can see a theme here, with a fear of hot favourite Air Force Blue developing. Aidan has said they are happy with the horse and Joseph reported in late December that the colt had filled out into a massive specimen. They are going straight to the Guineas and I suspect he will be the stable’s sole representative unless they deem a pacemaker necessary.

Air Force Blue is potentially in the Kingman class, for me, he impressed more at two than either Dawn Approach or Gleneagles. I have never seen Michael Tabor more confident than he was before the Dewhurst, when the interviewer mentioned Minding, who had won earlier in the week and made herself favourite for the 1000 Guineas. Opining that Minding looked “special”, the interviewer was casually but quite categorically told by Michael Tabor “Yes, but she’s not as special as this one is”

Of course Godolphin’s Emotionless didn’t run to his form and was subsequently found to have injured himself. He would have to been one hell of a horse to have bested Air Force Blue that day though.

The trainer stated that he is happy with Emotionless now and that he is back to form, but a word of caution must be that they said similar regarding Charming Thought last year and we never saw him all season. Until they have raced, you just never know and then there is the potential bounce factor.

Foundation may be an each-way option if it is testing and Blue De Vega is a promising sort who dismantled his maiden field over 7f in taking fashion before stepping up to group 3 company, where he was purposely held up by the jockey to give him an education. Once he got past the leaders, Blue De Vega stretched away, looking like his best work came at the finish and he should easily get the mile. Intrinsically, he must be one of the fastest likely to show up at Newmarket and I backed him each-way at 20/1, with a dearth of realistic opponents to Air Force Blue and the knowledge that history tells us that the Guineas winner has already run well before now.

Air Force Blue/Blue De Vega is my early straight forecast here.

Something might show up from the Craven/Greenham but having watched the replays and read the reports the vibes are very strong for Air Force Blue. I know he is seen to be short now but if there are a lot of deflections he could be very short on the day. If Shalaa runs O’Brien will probably stick in a pacemaker to stretch his stamina limitations a slowly run race and he could be in the mix. Hope he runs for you Jac but I have my doubts.

What do you reckon of Galileo Gold, Joni?

I reckon this will be a small field, Hit It A Bomb and Ribchester have been mooted as bound for France. Andre Fabre has said Ultra won’t run but will be prepared for Epsom and the Derby.

There are a lot of entries who look like they won’t be fast enough and/or are not good enough. I can see the field seriously thinning down and Air Force Blue being well odds on come flag fall.

There has been slight nibbling at Emotionless and Massaat, probably in the expectation that they will definitely run and be a fair bit shorter on the day as the field is seriously pruned down.

Galileo Gold seems a decent call each-way at 40/1, certainly compared to Ultra at half those odds when that one won’t be coming over. Hugo Palmer stated in January that Galileo Gold had put on 70 kilos and really thrived physically since last seen. He is in the running for all three Guineas with the ground the key to where he will turn up. The colt doesn’t want fast ground and the trainer expanded on plans by stating that Galileo Gold is a clean winded horse who probably won’t run in any of the trials.

My gut feeling is that the horse will probably head to France, as Air Force Blue may go Newmarket and Ireland, making those options look tougher assignments for the others.

The French race is shaping like it might be more intriguing and competitive than the others. Somewhat puzzlingly Racebets have La Cressonniere as favourite for the French 2000 Guineas. Jean-Claude Rouget’s five time and unbeaten winner is actually a filly and it would be unusual for her to compete against the colts. I suspect the Racebets team haven’t done their homework here.

Maybe he doesn’t have enough time to get emotionless to the racecourse before Newmarket. Hard to envisage him beating a fully wound up Air Force blue. Only a few weeks away now. Can’t wait for both Guineas.

I think Richard Hannon’s 2yo crop from last season is the least inspiring I can recall for some time. Illuminate was about the only one who looked to hold any potential for the classics.

Tabarrak may well improve but he needs to find about two stone to reach Air Force Blue’s level.

That said, who will actually turn up to challenge the hot favourite?

One or two rumblings have been coming from other trainers about the French or Irish Guineas being a “Better fit” calendar wise for their colts but I get the feeling that the reality is that they feel they cannot beat the top rated 2yo from last season.

Quite a few of Aidan O Brien’s colts have been drifting in the 2000 Guineas betting this past week, which would seem to reinforce my feeling that Air Force Blue will be the sole runner from the yard.

The way that things are shaping up I am finding it hard to see the Greenham and Craven having any real bearing on this year’s Guineas. This has been the trend of late anyway but seems likely to be even more pronounced this year with the favourite and the next few in the betting all likely to go straight to the Guineas.

The trainer of Blue De Vega was the latest to announce that his horse won’t have a run before the Guineas, in fact he was quite sang froid regarding going to the race at all, explaining that there are other races that might suit better if the horse is a bit behind schedule. Again, you wonder is this is actually a spin on admitting that they feel they can’t match Air Force Blue?

I am finding it hard to see many runners lining up at Newmarket and there should be little concern about the field splitting this year. The only splitting that may occur seems likely to be Air Force Blue splitting from the rest of the field in the closing stages.

At least Tabarrak is 66/1 and a decent price. Looking at Royal Artillery at 16/1 makes me recoil in horror. He is only a maiden winner and even if John Gosden is a leading name you don’t get a Golden Horn every year and the Guineas is harder to win with these lightly raced maiden winners. The value is non existent with this son of War Front.

Aidan said that Air Force Blue will be his sole runner at Newmarket.

Hit It A Bomb and Ballydoyle were confirmed as heading to France.

In the 1000 Guineas Minding, and Alice Springs are his possibles. The favourite goes straight there and Alice Springs will run in the trial in Ireland and depending on how that goes she may join Minding at Newmarket.

I am not sure if Tom Segal put up Buratino but the horse was nibbled into 20/1 today. His 1000 Guineas pick is due out tomorrow and we may see some movement there. If Tom has his head on right he will surely tip Trixia as the value

I got the impression Pricewise wanted to side with Air Force Blue but for the column being what it is has tipped up an each way alternative. He goes on to say Buratino was pulling away from O’Brien’s horse in the Coventry yet doesn’t mention the result when they met after that.
Air Force Blue looks a miler through and through and I don’t see Buratino getting anywhere near him at the distance unless they go a Kingman/Toronado Sussex stakes pace for the first seven furlongs….