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Steve, do you see him as a miler or a 12f horse next season. Lydia made the comment that she thought he was a miler at most. I’m guessing her opinion is based on his pedigree.
I was very impressed with his performance today.
Steve, do you see him as a miler or a 12f horse next season. Lydia made the comment that she thought he was a miler at most. I’m guessing her opinion is based on his pedigree.
I was very impressed with his performance today.
I agree with Lydia.
Certainly this horse will not win a Derby, he will not stay a mile and a half if he hitches a lift on a horse box half way round.
Todays ‘Middle Park’ will see a shake up in the 2000 gns betting.This hotpot 4/11 fav ‘Shalaa’ is supposed to be the next best thing but I’m hoping Buratino shows us he’s the better colt.I cant understand how Mark Johnstons colt is 9/1 he has done nothing wrong all year,his victory over the very highly regarded ‘Air force Blue’ in the Coventry reads better than anything Gosdens colt has achieved.The defeat in Ireland was no disgrace on what is well documented as ground too soft.I think ‘Ajaya’ will run well today too,I was at Nottingham when Pat Cosgrave somehow got him beat on his debut and he is one smart looking colt,imo he could be a Group 1 Sprinter next year.I just hope ‘Buratino’ goes for a Guineas campaign after today.
Buratino ran a great race today Gord. Given Shalaa’s speed don’t see why that one should be shorter than Buratino for the 2000. It was the Johnston horse staying on at the end there. Certain to stay at least 7f next year, probably a mile. Godolphin have quite a few possibilities (especially Emotionless) but TAPK’s got another ante-post player.
Value Is EverythingSteve, do you see him as a miler or a 12f horse next season. Lydia made the comment that she thought he was a miler at most. I’m guessing her opinion is based on his pedigree.
I was very impressed with his performance today.
You can never be 100% certain but I would bet Lydia any money she wants that this horse will win a 10f race next year.
Perhaps she is going by the pedigree but my own system is different. I base my prognosis on the distance a horse makes his debut at and visual impression thereafter. It served me well this year with Golden Horn in the Derby.
Foundation started his career at a mile and won at a mile next time on good to soft at Haydock. These races test stamina for young horses and I recall Greville Starkey many years ago trying to drum it into pundits minds that Dancing Brave got a mile as a two year old.
I prefer my Guineas prospects to have started their careers at 6 or 7 furlongs and then perhaps have one run at a mile at most to end their two year old careers. Foundation will probably run in the Racing Post Trophy in my opinion. We have seen Camelot win that race and a Guineas but it was a soft ground/bloody awful renewal that he narrowly won in last gasp style.
Kingston Hill and Elm Park were both mooted as Racing Post Trophy winners who could have the speed to land a Guineas but it just didn’t happen for them and you would need to believe there are faster horses in Air Force Blue, Emotionless and even Buratino who ran today, than Foundation is. I wouldn’t back him for Newmarket but it might be a starting point for him. I would keep him for the Dante and Derby if he were my horse. He will probably end the season having four runs under his belt and rather than prepare him to face faster horses in May I would take my time, win a Dante and then go to Epsom. The option is always there to then drop back in trip for the Eclipse and then progress to wherever his ability can take him.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Steve, do you see him as a miler or a 12f horse next season. Lydia made the comment that she thought he was a miler at most. I’m guessing her opinion is based on his pedigree.
I was very impressed with his performance today.
I agree with Lydia.
Certainly this horse will not win a Derby, he will not stay a mile and a half if he hitches a lift on a horse box half way round.
I think we heard all that with Golden Horn this year. Foundation is 10/1 favourite for the Derby in a place, which I wouldn’t take but having gone for him at 33/1 I can leave the odds now.
ps Frankie said after the race that Foundation will definitely get 10f but that the Derby trip was “In the lap of the Gods”
I would tend to listen to him in preference to Lydia and the Pedigree book that saw so many bullish that Golden Horn wouldn’t get the trip in a milk float.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I wasn’t certain Golden Horn would stay a mile and a half but even so his pedigree is stouter than Foundations by some way. Foundations pedigree screams mile, nothing more, nothing less. The horse may win a race at some other distance but his optimum distance I feel pretty sure will be a mile. That said i don’t really see him as a Guineas horse. I’m not sure he’ll be a group one winner at three.
Steve, do you see him as a miler or a 12f horse next season. Lydia made the comment that she thought he was a miler at most. I’m guessing her opinion is based on his pedigree.
I was very impressed with his performance today.
I agree with Lydia.
Certainly this horse will not win a Derby, he will not stay a mile and a half if he hitches a lift on a horse box half way round.
I think we heard all that with Golden Horn this year. Foundation is 10/1 favourite for the Derby in a place, which I wouldn’t take but having gone for him at 33/1 I can leave the odds now.
Lay him back mate. Nothing to lose.
Todays ‘Middle Park’ will see a shake up in the 2000 gns betting.This hotpot 4/11 fav ‘Shalaa’ is supposed to be the next best thing but I’m hoping Buratino shows us he’s the better colt.I cant understand how Mark Johnstons colt is 9/1 he has done nothing wrong all year,his victory over the very highly regarded ‘Air force Blue’ in the Coventry reads better than anything Gosdens colt has achieved.The defeat in Ireland was no disgrace on what is well documented as ground too soft.I think ‘Ajaya’ will run well today too,I was at Nottingham when Pat Cosgrave somehow got him beat on his debut and he is one smart looking colt,imo he could be a Group 1 Sprinter next year.I just hope ‘Buratino’ goes for a Guineas campaign after today.
Nice effort from Buratino today. Frankie said Shalaa didn’t handle the dip and lost momentum. I highly doubt Gosden will take the winner to the Guineas next year. They looked a bunch of sprinters to me today and despite Buratino finishing off best I still have my doubts about him at a mile. He is the one from today’s field who you want to be with for it but we saw Ivawood and Charming Thought fight it out last year and it never worked out for either of them.
I took Shalaa for the Commonwealth Cup at 8/1 and maybe I’m being selfish hoping he sticks to sprinting. He’s 4/1 for that race now.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Judging by breeding alone – by Zoffany out of a Polish Precident mare – you’d think Foundation would be more a miler. But the way he runs suggests 10f is going to suit. Whether he’ll stay 12f – at the moment I’d say 50-50. At current price imo not worth the risk. As far as the 2000 goes, on “form” around 20/1 isn’t a bad price but price takes in to account far from certain to be trained for it.
These splinters hurt.
Value Is EverythingSteve, do you see him as a miler or a 12f horse next season. Lydia made the comment that she thought he was a miler at most. I’m guessing her opinion is based on his pedigree.
I was very impressed with his performance today.
I agree with Lydia.
Certainly this horse will not win a Derby, he will not stay a mile and a half if he hitches a lift on a horse box half way round.
I think we heard all that with Golden Horn this year. Foundation is 10/1 favourite for the Derby in a place, which I wouldn’t take but having gone for him at 33/1 I can leave the odds now.
Lay him back mate. Nothing to lose.
I can’t be bothered with laying them back to be honest. An ex-bookie in my town is always telling me to get into backing to lay on Betfair, he reckons it would be easy money for me. I have probably had a better year for sitting with good prices on the day of the big race than in any other facet of the game. The strike rate has been appalling at actually getting them to win though, so perhaps my ex-opposition in the town has a point.
Anyway, Foundation may look a miler on paper but Gosden is pretty good at gauging a horse’s trip and it would seem odd to me to start Foundation off at a mile, if a mile is to be his trip at three years of age. There is nothing to suggest to me that Foundation cannot be effective over further next season. He looks to me that he settles well and can be held up, with both Frankie and Gosden saying today that he was probably in front longer than ideal. Deauville rallied well for pressure but Foundation kept him a bay with a bit in hand. I wouldn’t have bet money that O’Brien’s colt could have caught him if it were an extra furlong today.
It will be interesting to see if Foundation tackles the Racing Post Trophy. I am confident that he will go there and perhaps we will learn more.
It’s just a bit of fun for me these days.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Purely judging by the way the end of the race panned out it’s difficult to imagine Foundation holding off the second over longer distances. Just my own view, mind.
Purely judging by the way the end of the race panned out it’s difficult to imagine Foundation holding off the second over longer distances. Just my own view, mind.
Interesting viewpoint. The Racing Post report on the race says that Foundation was “eased near finish”, while the ATR report states that Deauville was “stayed on but always held”
My own belief is in following the trainer’s instinct, rather than a pedigree dosage index for stamina. I am not sure whether Foundation is even entered in the 2000 Guineas yet, but I do know he is is entered in the Irish version. Importantly perhaps, he is also entered in the Derby, which Golden Horn wasn’t.
Gosden seemed quite sure that he was unconcerned about what type of ground Foundation would face at Doncaster in the Racing Post Trophy. He stated that the next ten days or so would be spent checking how the colt had come out of the Royal Lodge.
If Foundation runs in the Racing Post Trophy, I am struggling to pick one that I would be confident of taking him on with. Deauville seemed to be one of O’Briens better ones and you are then looking round to see if you can find a likely sort for the race. Maybe other readers have ideas of one that might beat Foundation but I am struggling to see many contenders. If pushed I would consider Johannes Vermeer one of the most likely challengers and Unicorn gets the chance to stake a claim tomorrow. True Solitaire is favourite in Unicorn’s race tomorrow and he gets the chance to pay a compliment to Johannes Vermeer after finishing second to him
I believe Foundation would start favourite for the Racing Post Trophy and if he were to win it, I would see it hard to envisage anything other than a single figure price on him for Epsom. It’s a long way to go but I’ll tentatively pencil in Foundation to beat Johannes Vermeer in the Racing Post Trophy. Now where is the bookie offering ante-post forecast odds? LOL
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Recorder, Tashweeq and Very Talented are others to throw into the mix as far as the racing post trophy is concerned, it’s a bit early to be writing it off as a betting contest since we have no idea what the final declarations might be. My worry with Foundation is that he’s a bit on the small side; possibly a concern that he won’t develop much from two till three.
I just looked at the video of that Royal lodge again and I’m not convinced Foundation had much left in the locker, eased or not, the second was gaining rapidly at the finish and I think Foundation might struggle to fend him off if they met again, I also think this Deauville strikes me as having the more scope of the two. Two smart colts though.
I don’t think there’s a stand out derby horse yet. The Beresford today should tell us more, True Solitaire is rock solid on the form line with Sanus Per Aqqam/ Deauville/ Johannes Vermeer so I’ve backed him, although Stellar mass is interesting at a big price.
Of course you have to respect O’Brien’s record in the game although I notice all of his three are wearing headgear, I must admit I have an in-built dislike of any horse that is sporting any kind of apparatus
* Meant of course you have to respect his record in the race, although both are applicable
Recorder, Tashweeq and Very Talented are others to throw into the mix as far as the racing post trophy
Recorder is injured and out for the season. See last para:-
Recorder, Tashweeq and Very Talented are others to throw into the mix as far as the racing post trophy is concerned, it’s a bit early to be writing it off as a betting contest since we have no idea what the final declarations might be. My worry with Foundation is that he’s a bit on the small side; possibly a concern that he won’t develop much from two till three.
I just looked at the video of that Royal lodge again and I’m not convinced Foundation had much left in the locker, eased or not, the second was gaining rapidly at the finish and I think Foundation might struggle to fend him off if they met again, I also think this Deauville strikes me as having the more scope of the two. Two smart colts though.
I don’t think there’s a stand out derby horse yet. The Beresford today should tell us more, True Solitaire is rock solid on the form line with Sanus Per Aqqam/ Deauville/ Johannes Vermeer so I’ve backed him, although Stellar mass is interesting at a big price.
Of course you have to respect O’Brien’s record in the game although I notice all of his three are wearing headgear, I must admit I have an in-built dislike of any horse that is sporting any kind of apparatus
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