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I took an early punt on Buratino at 40/1 before the Coventry,he beat ‘Air Force Blue’comfortably,the latter reversed that form decisively in Ireland thereafter and the 2000 gns market was turned upside down.I like Aidens horse he reminds me a lot of ‘Henrythenavigator’ who incidentally won the Coventry but got beat in the Phoenix on his next run,he was a ground dependant horse and so is ‘Buratino’.Mark johnstons horse trades at 25/1 now and that is way too big,I hope they meet in the Dewhurst as that will be some race on good ground.I too rate ‘Herald the Dawn’not just because he’s a full brother to the mighty ‘Dawn Approach’ but because I see a miler in the making,at 25/1 he’s my No2.
I am not sure Buratino will be a miler Gord. He has looked a speedy, top of the ground horse this year and I would be a bit worried about him in a 7f Dewhurst with cut in the ground. He also holds a Middle Park entry at six furlongs but he’s not in the betting for that one at the moment and it’s good to soft at Newmarket at the moment anyway.
It seems like it could be a good Dewhurst if they all turn up, which doesn’t normally happen sadly. Buratino is 12/1 for the race at the moment, which would seem a better bet to me than taking him for the Guineas if you maintain faith in the horse.
Herald The Dawn had looked promising but there seems no reason why he will reverse placings with Air Force Blue in the Dewhurst and I couldn’t take him other than for a place in the Dewhurst. Maybe long term Jim’s colt will be a good one but for now Air Force Blue is rated 8lbs his superior. Now Or Never seriously let down Herald The Dawn’s Futurity win when she was stone last in the Moyglare and the third in the Futurity, Shogun, never went a tap on the rain softened ground. As you say Gord, I think he needs a mile and I’m just concerned whether, in fact, 10f may be his game.
Good to see you posting again anyway.
Nice to see some support gathering for Ribchester here. IBRacing, Steeplechasing and Steve Caution will now go into the winter as the racing fan club called Ribchester United.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I read somewhere that Godolphin paid £1.5m for Ribchester.
You would think that, if they had so much confidence in Emotionless, they wouldn’t need to have bought Log Out Island, Birchwood and now Ribchester.
One of these days they will line up with 80% of the Guineas field, having spent millions, and then be patting themselves on the back for their shrewd racing skills……………….as one of their colts finishes second to the Aidan O’Brien winner!
Birchwood and Log Out Island were bought before Emotionless even saw a racecourse Steve (not that Log Out Island ever had pretensions of staying a mile). How were Godolphin supposed to know how Emotionless was going to develop? Same as Coolmore did not know how Air Force Blue was going to develop. There’s more than one top class mile race to win anyway and injury can ruin any horse. It would be stupid to rely on one horse. Which is why Coolmore buy up an amazing number of middle-distance bred unraced individuals every year; a scattergun approach at finding a Derby winner. Take a look at the first declaration stage of the Derrinstown Derby Trial each year and you’ll see what I mean; number of Coolmore entries dominate.
Ribchester is also by one of Godolphin’s sires, Iffraj.
Probably true that Godolphin buy up too many two year olds (often without much hope of reaching Group 1 classs) but can see why they bought Ribchester. Agree, 33/1 (still available with Sky) looks worth taking if you’re looking for a big priced outsider. Although wonder whether he’ll end up in France given a liking for softish ground and Godolphin having a better Newmarket contender
… So not going to risk lessening the Emotionless value by backing a second horse that turns out to be a non-runner.Value Is EverythingMany of the yearlings Coolmore buy at the sales are actually already owned by Coolmore or partnership involving Coolmore. For example, 10 of the Galileo yearlings they bought at Tattersalls Book 1 last year were actually their own. They put them through the sales for different reasons, including advertising their stallions, valuing them for partnerships, entries to sales races , etc.
The scenario with Emotionless and Ribchester could change rapidly over the winter and into the spring.
Charming Thought was supposed to have put himself right in the Guineas picture by winning the Middle Park from Ivawood last season but we then heard he wouldn’t make the race and that he would be aimed at the Commonwealth Cup as a starting point. He hasn’t been seen this year at all and he’s not the first Goldolphin trained horse to vanish, leaving their Classic challenge depleted or wiped out entirely.
This Guineas betting is loaded with horses who make no appeal to me for next season.
There is still the small matter of Emotionless having to go out and prove he is truly worthy of being rated ahead of Air Force Blue in the Dewhurst. Last time he tracked Ibn Malik before easily brushing him aside, this time it is likely that the O’Brien runner will be tracking him and we will see whether he can hold him off or whether the son of War Front can quicken the better of the two.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Air Force Blue’s price for the Dewhurst reflects the fact that he is unlikely to go to the Dewhurst whereas Emotionless almost certainly will.
Many of the yearlings Coolmore buy at the sales are actually already owned by Coolmore or partnership involving Coolmore. For example, 10 of the Galileo yearlings they bought at Tattersalls Book 1 last year were actually their own. They put them through the sales for different reasons, including advertising their stallions, valuing them for partnerships, entries to sales races , etc.
The big difference with Coolmore is the success rate they have in the Classics. It’s one thing spending a lot of money and succeeding and another matter firing a lot of cash and then firing blanks at the top table of races.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Air Force Blue’s price for the Dewhurst reflects the fact that he is unlikely to go to the Dewhurst whereas Emotionless almost certainly will.
I thought the plan was for Air Force Blue to run if the ground is suitable. I think Aidan knows that he is the only colt he has who is good enough to win the race. Of course that won’t stop the Coolmore boys running a few who are not going to cut the mustard.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
When prompted about the Dewhurst immediately after his last race, he said that if he was to run again it would be the Dewhurst, but he also said that he didn’t need to run again. I’d say it is unlikely.
I’m pretty sure the prices are a reflection on what the likely ground is going to be. I have heard both Aiden and Joseph O’Brien say that AFB will be hindered by a softer surface.
If the ground is looking good a few days before the race with a decent forecast and they are both still entered, then I imagine AFB will be just about favourite.Hamdan has a good team of two year olds this year. Tashweeq (although the form was rather let down today) Mustajeer, who won the first maiden at Newmarket today, Masaat, impressive in his maiden at Leicester the other day, and Muntazah, who runs in the Royal Lodge on Saturday (just to name a few)
Air Force Blue has been backed for the Dewhurst. Paddy Power go Emotionless 11/10 and Airforce Blue 5/4, while William Hill has it 11/8 Air Force Blue and 6/4 Emotionless.
It would be great for the race if they both run, otherwise it would leave an odds on favourite in the absence of one of them. Hopefully if both horses are well and the ground is suitable there won’t be anyone ducking the issue.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Hamdan has a good team of two year olds this year. Tashweeq (although the form was rather let down today) Mustajeer, who won the first maiden at Newmarket today, Masaat, impressive in his maiden at Leicester the other day, and Muntazah, who runs in the Royal Lodge on Saturday (just to name a few)
Yes, Haalick stank the place out in the Tattersalls.
Muntazah looked good last time after disappointing the time before but he’s facing a tough task in taking on Deuville, who is one of the Derby favourites, and John Gosden’s Foundation, who has won impressively twice, in tomorrow’s Royal Lodge.
Sanus Per Aquam paid a belated compliment of sorts when winning yesterday but it was a rather hairy affair and I was dubious about the race beforehand, particularly Andre Fabre’s assertion that Lawmaking was a Guineas horse in his mind. The French colt is a three times raced maiden now and he’s just not on my list for Newmarket next May.
I like Foundation for the Royal Lodge, the trip and ground will suit and he’s an interesting prospect whom I have picked for the Derby despite concerns about the ground and his action. I prefer his proven stamina here.
Some nice prospects for Hamdan as you say though.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Hamdan has a good team of two year olds this year. Tashweeq (although the form was rather let down today) Mustajeer, who won the first maiden at Newmarket today, Masaat, impressive in his maiden at Leicester the other day, and Muntazah, who runs in the Royal Lodge on Saturday (just to name a few)
And Tabarrak……..
Blackbeard to conquer the World
Hamdan has a good team of two year olds this year. Tashweeq (although the form was rather let down today) Mustajeer, who won the first maiden at Newmarket today, Masaat, impressive in his maiden at Leicester the other day, and Muntazah, who runs in the Royal Lodge on Saturday (just to name a few)
And Tabarrak……..
aye liked his attitude on debut, then he won his maiden
still in fairness all of Hamdan’s have to step up, as Emotionless and Air Force Blue are the best we’ve seen so far
Be interesting to see how the Sanus Per Aqqam form line with Deauville holds up in the Royal Lodge, and while I agree with Steve that Foundation deserves to be favourite, Deauville looks like a formidable rival indeed, and the Hamdan horse is also interesting.
I must admit I thought the prices would be the other way around, but Deauvile looks like going off favourite now so I’ve had to back Foundation. The drying ground should enable him to use his turn of foot.
Had a small saver on the Hamdan horse as well.
Todays ‘Middle Park’ will see a shake up in the 2000 gns betting.This hotpot 4/11 fav ‘Shalaa’ is supposed to be the next best thing but I’m hoping Buratino shows us he’s the better colt.I cant understand how Mark Johnstons colt is 9/1 he has done nothing wrong all year,his victory over the very highly regarded ‘Air force Blue’ in the Coventry reads better than anything Gosdens colt has achieved.The defeat in Ireland was no disgrace on what is well documented as ground too soft.I think ‘Ajaya’ will run well today too,I was at Nottingham when Pat Cosgrave somehow got him beat on his debut and he is one smart looking colt,imo he could be a Group 1 Sprinter next year.I just hope ‘Buratino’ goes for a Guineas campaign after today.
I must admit I thought the prices would be the other way around, but Deauvile looks like going off favourite now so I’ve had to back Foundation. The drying ground should enable him to use his turn of foot.
Had a small saver on the Hamdan horse as well.
Gosden has said that Foundation may run in the Racing Post Trophy, depending how he comes out of the race today. The trainer feels the horse will act on any ground and that he probably hit the front sooner than ideal today.
Frankie believes this was the first time the son of Zoffany has had the chance to learn something in a race and agreed that he was probably in front long enough today.
I saw Foundation as more of a Derby sort and the pundit asked John Gosden whether he felt Deauville was perhaps the more thorough stayer of the two colts, to which the trainer replied that he felt Foundation was the more likely stayer of the two coming into today’s race. Frankie said he will get 10f but after that he is in the lap of the Gods regarding the Derby trip.
William Hill’s quote of 10/1 for the 2000 Guineas is far too short in my opinion. Frankel won the Royal Lodge and went on to Newmarket glory but he was a freak and I would be wary about Foundation at short odds for the Guineas.
Today’s winner is still 20/1 for The Derby in places and seeing Emotionless as low as half those odds for the same race makes me shake my head in wonder
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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