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About time a thread was up for this race my bet is.
HERALD THE DAWN 20/1
Ran ok on debut but put up very taking performance next time up while LONDON got beat my fancy won yesterday he wants fast ground don’t think Bolger run him on ground like that again.
I love how little thought goes into your selections, Darren. It’s refreshing to see a ‘gut instinct’ punter doing so well across so many sports.
Jim Bolger told The Irish Field that Herald The Dawn has struggled badly with sore shins, so it’s impressive to see him progressive so well in spite of interruptions between races.
TYF i do give my bets a lot of thought i just try and keep my posts on here quite short i do.
Did KINGMAN have a problem like that as well he had problems at 2 as well.
Sad Herald The Dawn not win today but got beat by better horse.Nice dewhurst if we see
EMOTIONLESS vs AIR FORCE BLUEi think i am the only one,who was not overly impressed with Emotionless in regards of winning a classic.
Dont not what it was,better judges than me are all over him,but something is nagging me about the performance.i think i am the only one,who was not overly impressed with Emotionless in regards of winning a classic.
Dont not what it was,better judges than me are all over him,but something is nagging me about the performance.I have expressed my concerns over on the 2yo thread.
Godolphin haven’t landed the race with their main trainers for a while now and don’t have the best record of late in even bringing one with a decent chance to the race.
Yes he hosed home but did he really beat a top notch horse in Ibn Malik? It wasn’t a strong looking race and my recommendation in the circumstances was Ibn Malik each-way at 6/1 when 1-2-3 places were available ante-post. Whilst picking Charlie Hills’ runner I had little expectation that the win part would be viable unless Emotionless failed to progress from his first run.
I feel Air Force Blue has much more substance to his form. Herald The Dawn is no duck egg but he was swept aside with ease. I find it hard to fathom that Air Force Blue is 2/1 second favourite for the Dewhurst and win or lose he would be my bet every time in these circumstances as a group 1 winner, whose only defeat came in the Coventry against a Buratino who was flying at the time. To me Air Force Blue was always a better prospect to progress than the fairly precocious Mark Johnston colt and I would say he would be lining up odds on in 19 out of 20 Dewhursts with the form he brings to the table.
Emotionless may be that once in a generation colt out of the Dubai Millennium mould but I feel he is going to face a much faster rival in Air Force Blue, than he did in Ibn Malik, who is surely a horse who is going to be heading to the Racing Post Trophy, rather than the Dewhurst.
I put Air Force Blue up as a horse who had to be backed at 10/1 or better after his Phoenix Stakes win and apart from a slight concern as War Front is his sire and the certainty of training on, I think he is very much the one to beat.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Air Force Blue is special and has definitely been in better races but it’s hard to knock Emotionless. He cantered past Ibn Malik with the minimum of fuss and could do with a stiffer test now to bring his gears into play.
Air Force Blue finished 2 lengths behind Buratino on only his 2nd start and the progress he has displayed since then has been great.
Like you say, Godolphin haven’t been bringing classic hopefuls to the table in recent years but when you have one, you have one. I believe they have one.We do need to see Emotionless in a harder race this year though as he has some catching up to do with AFB.
Air Force Blue is special and has definitely been in better races but it’s hard to knock Emotionless. He cantered past Ibn Malik with the minimum of fuss and could do with a stiffer test now to bring his gears into play.
Air Force Blue finished 2 lengths behind Buratino on only his 2nd start and the progress he has displayed since then has been great.
Like you say, Godolphin haven’t been bringing classic hopefuls to the table in recent years but when you have one, you have one. I believe they have one.We do need to see Emotionless in a harder race this year though as he has some catching up to do with AFB.
Timeform already rate Emotionless ahead of Air Force Blue. They may be correct but the way I like to consider these situations is to picture Air Force Blue racing Ibn Malik and I can only have visualised the O’Brien horse coming past the Barry Hills colt with some degree of ease.
Richard Fahey’s Ribchester just put up a taking performance in the Mill Reef and he looks a colt who will fill out over the winter and develop into a Guineas contender. I was looking at the betting for the Classic before the race but he wasn’t quoted. Perhaps he will appear later on, because Richard Fahey described him as his best Guineas prospect after the race and that is ahead of Birchwood, who is in the betting for the race.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Air Force Blue is special and has definitely been in better races but it’s hard to knock Emotionless. He cantered past Ibn Malik with the minimum of fuss and could do with a stiffer test now to bring his gears into play.
Air Force Blue finished 2 lengths behind Buratino on only his 2nd start and the progress he has displayed since then has been great.
Like you say, Godolphin haven’t been bringing classic hopefuls to the table in recent years but when you have one, you have one. I believe they have one.We do need to see Emotionless in a harder race this year though as he has some catching up to do with AFB.
Timeform already rate Emotionless ahead of Air Force Blue. They may be correct but the way I like to consider these situations is to picture Air Force Blue racing Ibn Malik and I can only have visualised the O’Brien horse coming past the Barry Hills colt with some degree of ease.
Richard Fahey’s Ribchester just put up a taking performance in the Mill Reef and he looks a colt who will fill out over the winter and develop into a Guineas contender. I was looking at the betting for the Classic before the race but he wasn’t quoted. Perhaps he will appear later on, because Richard Fahey described him as his best Guineas prospect after the race and that is ahead of Birchwood, who is in the betting for the race.
I like Ribchester. This horse is still a little bit green but he has loads of latent talent. His breeding suggests a mile is exactly what he’d need May next year and the horse is progressive and slightly immature yet robust and professional at the same time. He is on an upward curve and once he steps up in trip his profile suggests he is more likely to progress rather than regress.
I’d rather have him at a decent price for the Guineas than Emotionless who although has looked admittedly very impressive is more style than substance up to now. The Godolphin involvement would worry me but Ribchester as a horse is very promising and if handled correctly he could go right to the top.
Air Force Blue is special and has definitely been in better races but it’s hard to knock Emotionless. He cantered past Ibn Malik with the minimum of fuss and could do with a stiffer test now to bring his gears into play.
Air Force Blue finished 2 lengths behind Buratino on only his 2nd start and the progress he has displayed since then has been great.
Like you say, Godolphin haven’t been bringing classic hopefuls to the table in recent years but when you have one, you have one. I believe they have one.We do need to see Emotionless in a harder race this year though as he has some catching up to do with AFB.
Timeform already rate Emotionless ahead of Air Force Blue. They may be correct but the way I like to consider these situations is to picture Air Force Blue racing Ibn Malik and I can only have visualised the O’Brien horse coming past the Barry Hills colt with some degree of ease.
Richard Fahey’s Ribchester just put up a taking performance in the Mill Reef and he looks a colt who will fill out over the winter and develop into a Guineas contender. I was looking at the betting for the Classic before the race but he wasn’t quoted. Perhaps he will appear later on, because Richard Fahey described him as his best Guineas prospect after the race and that is ahead of Birchwood, who is in the betting for the race.
I like Ribchester. This horse is still a little bit green but he has loads of latent talent. His breeding suggests a mile is exactly what he’d need May next year and the horse is progressive and slightly immature yet robust and professional at the same time. He is on an upward curve and once he steps up in trip his profile suggests he is more likely to progress rather than regress.
I’d rather have him at a decent price for the Guineas than Emotionless who although has looked admittedly very impressive is more style than substance up to now. The Godolphin involvement would worry me but Ribchester as a horse is very promising and if handled correctly he could go right to the top.
He has entered the Guineas betting with a few firms and I thought the 33/1 offered was worth a little bit each-way. There are worse bets in my opinion.
Ribchester each-way 33/1 to keep the winter fire burning.
ps 33/1 is with Stan James
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Two things worth remembering about Air Force Blue’s performance, Joseph was instructed by Aidan to win by just half a length if he could, also he is a May foal and has more development to come than older horses.
Two things worth remembering about Air Force Blue’s performance, Joseph was instructed by Aidan to win by just half a length if he could, also he is a May foal and has more development to come than older horses.
Air Force Blue has a lot of positives going for him as you say and only two things concern me.
The main worry is that he is a son of War Front and that raises a slight concern regarding whether he will train on or have been precocious at two years of age. A couple of recent examples of this were War Command, who destroyed his Coventry field but then never looked quite as good again, making little impact at three and John Gosden’s Faydhan, who rattled home on his debut making him one of the Guineas favourites before flopping in the Free Handicap and then not being seen again at three (thus far anyway).
The training on has to be the biggest single worry and the other slighter concern is whether being a late foal actually an advantage in the Guineas, or a disadvantage. The Guineas is early in the season and I actually took the reverse view this year and felt that Gleneagles might have had an advantage lining up in May actually four months past his three years of age. Other contenders were a few months younger.
That aside I think he should be a warm favourite.
Yesterday’s winner Ribchester has been backed in from the advised 33/1. It may seem bizarre but I actually make him third favourite at 14/1 on my own book for the race. This is a Guineas loaded with colts who are underpriced and some who may not line up for the race.
Shalaa is class but said to be a sprinter by his trainer. Deauville’s form with Sanus Per Aquam took a severe knock and Smash Williams is promising but has a bit to go for me at the odds he is. Herald The Dawn was destroyed by Air Force Blue, while Buratino looks a classic speedy 2yo who won’t figure in the Guineas at a mile. Round Two had a defeat and was put back in the oven for some more cooking, Jim Bolger either likes his cakes well baked or there has been a problem, as he has been conspicuous by his absence and has something to prove when he does reappear.
In these circumstances I think Ribchester, who ran a cracker to be second in the Gimcrack, coming there as a once raced maiden, is worthy of serious consideration after landing the Mill Reef in taking style. As IBRacing has said, he looks a horse who will make good physical progress and I think his style of racing should see him get a mile next season.
Would you rather take 28/1 Ribchester or 25/1 Proconsul, who is an unraced brother of Frankel, trained in France by Andre Fabre and whom we have no idea whether he will even see a racecourse this year?
It’s a no-brainer for me.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I’ve backed Ribchester too, as much on looks as anything else. Once he learns the game and can put all his power into racing rather than looking around, he could be good.
I took an early punt on Buratino at 40/1 before the Coventry,he beat ‘Air Force Blue’comfortably,the latter reversed that form decisively in Ireland thereafter and the 2000 gns market was turned upside down.I like Aidens horse he reminds me a lot of ‘Henrythenavigator’ who incidentally won the Coventry but got beat in the Phoenix on his next run,he was a ground dependant horse and so is ‘Buratino’.Mark johnstons horse trades at 25/1 now and that is way too big,I hope they meet in the Dewhurst as that will be some race on good ground.I too rate ‘Herald the Dawn’not just because he’s a full brother to the mighty ‘Dawn Approach’ but because I see a miler in the making,at 25/1 he’s my No2.
I read somewhere that Godolphin paid £1.5m for Ribchester.
You would think that, if they had so much confidence in Emotionless, they wouldn’t need to have bought Log Out Island, Birchwood and now Ribchester.
One of these days they will line up with 80% of the Guineas field, having spent millions, and then be patting themselves on the back for their shrewd racing skills……………….as one of their colts finishes second to the Aidan O’Brien winner!
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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