2000 guineas 2015

Ol’ Man River seems to be in free fall and is out to 20/1, Duffman has a bad feeling about this horse.

Richard Pankhurst the best horse for money today, 10/1 the top price now.

For the first time, Gleneagles has actually gone back out slightly to 7/2 after continuous support for some time.

I hope some people got the advised 20/1 on Richard Pankhurst, he will be shorter than stable mate Faydhan if this support continues.

The problem with RP is that John Gosden doesn’t usually have his string on fire until late May early June and I don’t see this being any different. I also think that Hottenanny would be an interesting runner if he comes over with Sunset Glow. I just think that Glen Eagles and Highland Reel are very close but the latter has the edge for me and is better priced.

pickup wrote:

Question Steve are all the horses carrying the same weight ?

Horses carry the same weight in all the Classic races. Because they are all 3yo there is no weight allowance from older horses, which varies at different times of the year. The only exception would be if a filly was to run in any of the Classics normally reserved for colts, where the female horse would get a weight allowance from the colts. That rarely happens, I do remember my 1000 Guineas horse Cape Verdi running in the Derby that year (1998) where she carried 8st 9lbs to the colts 9st but she finished 9th despite being the favourite for the race.

I think racing lends itself to repeated patterns, any well designed system will produce results long term so long as the logic is sound. It’s a game that requires plenty of patience though and sequences where you can’t seem to buy a winner are bound to happen. It’s a tough old game with many pitfalls along the way.

pickup wrote:

Firstly thank you for not lampooning me about the question like WTF doesn’t he even know that, sure I did and a lot more besides but I wanted to see the response before I share with you all some knowledge I picked up along the way. My ex-son in law worked for several Newmarket stables and I had the opportunity to look around SMS yard who looed after the Maktoum-Al-Maktoum horses and James Fanshawe yard and there was a world of difference in the facilities for starters at the time and probably still is. Such as indoor walkers and pools and running tracks etc. Which all helps in getting a horse to peak condition exercise wise and doesn’t just rely on the gallops. I was also told that weeks before a big race certain horses are given the best quality oats mixed with vitamims and supplements, nothing illegal but expensive feed. No expense is spared and the horses are treated with special care and attention by the handlers to make sure they are well catered and don’t injure themselves.

I asked the question about why sometimes a jockey in the box at the off stands up in the stirrups when the boxes are loading and I was told this is to take the weight off the horses spine as they are young horses and its not good to have the weight in one place. I asked so its better to have a lighter jockey on top then and was met with laughter, some think so but lighter jockeys are a hinderance to the horse and to the race. Its all about the moveable riding weight and the deadweight made-up which is the difference. Also the top riding weight of 8’6 is achieved when the jockey is experienced and therefore can eat more to burn the calories and by this nature is stronger throughout the much needed run in at the last furlong or so. They don’t have to sweat it out of them so much to attain their riding weight in the gym beforehand. In handicap terms 3lb is a length difference and don’t forget this is weight which is deadweight and cannot be shifted.

I tried an experiment I carried 2 5lb bags of potatoes from my local supermarket to the car some distance away by the top so they were hanging from my arms and soon my arms ached and the cramp got so bad I had to put them down before I reached the car. The following week I did the same but when my right arm cramped I passed the bag across to my other hand and although this carried extra weight it relaxed my other arm so I could transfer it back later and I did this all the way without putting the bags down. Simple but it showed to me how the muscles cramp under dead weight.

The top owners, yards have the top riding weight jockeys in most cases for the big races and by the nature their horses carry less dead weight but there is something else as well which I will share later if you are interested.

I just answered the question in the spirit it was asked.

Nobody knows everything about horse racing as far as I am concerned and the whole point of sites like this should be asking questions and sharing knowledge. There are a lot of facets of equine science that are not fully understood and it’s always interesting to get new input and theories to discuss the merits of.

How horses cope with weight is something I have often pondered and I question whether the weight for distance scale holds up totally accurately across a big range of weight concession.

If a horse concedes 2 lbs to another, can we really say with full certainty that the theory will hold full and true if that were to become 16 lbs or 23 lbs for example. At what point does the weight difference veer away from the theoretical scale.

As far as weight distribution on the horse goes, I heard a few people say last year that they thought Joseph O’Brien was looking awkward on some horses due to his physical size. It all gets rather scientific with centre of gravity and momentum equations but it can’t be coincidence that there have been few tall jockeys who have been successful over the years. There have been rumblings that Ryan Moore may be riding the perceived first string rather than Joseph this year so we will see if there is truth in that.

Getting back to the Guineas, it looks like we may get a decent Greenham and Craven this year. Recent renewals have seen little real excitement but it could be that Belardo, The Wow Signal, Ivawood and Flaming Spear will run in the Greenham, while The Craven could have Richard Pankhurst, Estidhkaar, Consort and Moheet preparing for a tilt at the Guineas.

Michael Stoute’s Consort came in for some support today, along with Celestial Path and Endless Drama, so I wonder if some of those were put up by Pricewise?

Pricewise covers the 1000 Guineas tomorrow, so we’ll probably see some changes in the betting after those selections are known.

I’m always interested in what other forum users have to say, it’s the life blood of any forum and there’s nothing worse than sitting looking at a thread that isn’t getting any attention.

pickup wrote:

The other factor I discovered bearing in mind this was in the 90’s was that the thing that ruins a horse race is when it is using up energy fighting the bridle and wanting its head, all the pent up energy was being held in check ready for the moment but the horse didn’t know that and wanted to get to the front as they like to lead the pack as the weaker ones get attacked by the wolves in the wild. When a horse travelled especially when it travelled by air is that days before hand a sedative of some description was administered to reduce the horses fear of flying for example to the tracks. I believe the same may have been true for horsebox transfer by road but this was like administered if required at the time. Those travelling by air had to be administered prior to the travel and was topped up on the day if required. Therefore when you look at the results of the horses from Ireland, Godolphin and France I have wondered about this as this would surely calm the horse down and would be less on its toes. I am not saying there was anything illegal going on at all but I was told was a requirement by the airlines flying the horses. Also the horses themselves bearing in mind there age was often not used to big crowds so would be schooled not to over react such as public gallops where there was often a lot of attention with cameras clicking etc. Not sure how much difference this made but I was told it was all the little things that add up but on the day you had to have lady luck as well and position the horse and press the button when it was judged by the jockey to get the best of the horse and it was fine lines that was often the difference.

It’s always been a pet hate of mine watching a jockey fighting with a horse who won’t settle.

My thinking has always been that, if a horse is using energy up it might as well be going somewhere with it, rather than fighting with the jockey and being held back into the bargain. The horse may simply not settle but if it wants to get to the front, then perhaps it will calm down once getting there.

Usually a hard puller is as good as done anyway but playing tug-of-war with the horse puts the final nail in the lid as far as I am concerned.

How a horse has travelled is usually something I have just taken on trust and let the trainer say whether it went well or not. I recall reading about Generous, when he travelled to France to compete in his 2yo days and that they had reason why he ran poorly on his trip overseas. For a start the horse didn’t have a great journey over and to put the tin lid on it he was stabled right next to a noisy fairground that went on late into the wee small hours. Generous ran like a bag of rusty nails behind Hector Protector at Deauville but got back on track as warm favourite at Sandown, before landing The Dewhurst at a whopping 50/1, which was when I then read all the kerfuffle that had led to his poor showing in France.

The moral always seems to be that Johnny Punter never finds out helpful information until after it’s too late to help. Still, at least I backed Generous for the Derby.

Nathan Hughes wrote:

Don’t quote me as I’ll have to take a look but I’m sure Richard Hughes wrote in his Autobiography that fighting the horse to settle until they do is a way of making them learn to settle in a race and if you let them run away with you they are likely to do it again and again.

Hughsie would know a lot more about it than me and I have no doubt his theory is correct.

It is just that I would rather that they taught the horses to settle on the gallops, rather than see a horse anchored and effectively out of the race in order that the jockey can show who is boss.

A case in point is surely Kevin Manning on Dawn Approach in the Derby, where he fought the horse for a long way before pointlessly letting him go on when his race had already been run.

I think there are different degrees of keenness in a horse’s personality and it’s not always about careering away totally out of control. It just seems so counter-productive to be pulling the horse back, making it harder for him to be making no effective progress for the energy spent.

I’m just wondering, if once in a while a jockey might let his mount get to the head of affairs and see if he’ll settle down once he’s at the head of affairs.

I suppose, like the bulk of rides we see day-in, day-out, year after year, there are ways that things have to be done and initiative is rarely taken or conventional wisdom challenged. There’s a serious lack of inspiration and guile shown in my opinion. Imagine trying to compile a book entitled “Rides Of Genius”, I think you would come up with a pretty slim volume. And no, you can’t include Einstein’s Honeymoon in the book

Hannon on Peacock after Kempton

:”We might have a look at one of the Guineas trials as he would have a fitness edge. It could be the Greenham at Newbury, but a mile seems to suit him well so we could also consider the Craven Stakes at Newmarket.

“Peacock is a horse who showed promise last year and improved as the season went on, and he’ll come on a lot for that first run back.”

Could Peacock still run in the Guineas if for example he wins say the Craven impressively, he doesn’t seem to have an entry for the 2000, could he get supplemented?

I had £40 on him with betfair at various odds but it only shows up the loss and says potential profit £0.00 and him not in the market.

I was looking at the Irish two year old form last year and a few things stood out.
1. Jamaica looks like having the same make up as magician and has similar form at this stage. Expect him to turn up at Chester where a good run in one of the trials could lead to him being a fancy for the derby.
2.Giovanni caneletto has the look of Australia about him. Well beaten on his first run he looks great in his maiden win and as they say could be anything. Will be interesting to see where he will go
3. Mohaayed beat ciovanni by 6l on his second run so should be a horse to follow. The second from that maiden may run at Tipperary on Thursday so we could get a form guide there.
4. Ol man river to me looked outstanding in his last run and his breeding suggests that he could be the best 10 12f horse at ballydoyle. doesn’t look like he’s guides bound so we will have to wait and see.
5. Highland reel crused to victory at goodwood but looks more of a 10 to 12f horse than a miler. Would have thought ballydoyle would have dick Whittington as back up to gleneagles.
6. Now that most of founds main rivals have either defected or are not certain to stay she looks a good bet in the 1000 guineas especially if together forever sets a good pace. Will be even better over the oaks distance and looks to me the horse to follow from ballydoyle.
As always we’re guessing as to how horse have progressed from two to three but the Irish trained horses seem to have a very strong hand in the big races. Leapordstown on Sunday then Newmarket will tell us where we are at.

nwalton wrote:

Consort of Sir Michael Stoute’s looks unlikely to make the line up(needs more time)

That’s interesting, because the horse was backed in from 33/1 to 20/1 initially.

I now see not many are quoting him, still keeping him at 20/1 though, and he’s 56 on Betfair.

I think he is a colt of promise but he would have been up against it going to the 2000 Guineas with other rivals likely to have been arriving with more experience and a possible trial win under their belt to boot. Stoute’s relatively lean times the past few years are another reason he didn’t appeal to me as an ante-post selection for the race.

Hard lines to anyone who was on at 33/1