2000 guineas 2015

I forgot to say that Joseph O Brien has mentioned that Gleneagles reminds him of Giant’s Causeway.

There is no 4/1 left now on Gleneagles, best price is now 7/2.

It’s a pity the 2000 guineas is run barely a month into the season when a number of the field haven’t made their 3yo debuts. Just makes it all the harder to pick the winner. Here’s hoping its a zafonic moment for young Joseph and not a long shot none but the lucky few picked.

moehat wrote:

The only straw I can clutch at with Gleneagles is that he hasn’t won over 8f and hasn’t ran at Newmarket.And also thst, perhaps Aidans horses, having long seasons ahead of them might not be fully wound up for the race.

I think he’ll be fine at the trip Moe. He’s far from being a trailblazer and he has usually tracked other horses in his races to date, keeping on pretty well when taking it up.

The two potential areas you could identify as an achilles heel, if he has one, are the ability to handle soft ground and the slight tendency to wander when coming to the front.

His only defeat came on his first start, which was on yielding ground. It may be that he was a bit backward and needed the run but his next three starts were on good to firm, before running on good ground in France. He might well go on the soft but we don’t know 100% and that may also exacerbate the other area of doubt that may exist.

Gleneagles hasn’t actually gone and blown a field away thus far. He has tended to track the pace then come through to take it up and stay on well enough to hold them at bay without going right away. When he beat Vert De Grece in the Group 2 Futurity, he took it up a furlong and a half out but drifted a bit and his lead was cut down to a 3/4 L margin at the winning line. In France he finished first past the post, a half length ahead of Full Mast but, as we know, his waywardness led to him being demoted to third place. It just makes you wonder if he’ll be a horse who doesn’t want to be in front for too long.

Perhaps he will have left those tendencies behind with maturity, but if he is a horse who needs to be produced at the right time, it just raises a few of questions if the ground is softer, if they race in different groups etc, as we saw how last year’s split seemed to affect the race.

The best horse probably, some will say certainly, didn’t win the race last year, and you’d feel a lot more cosy sitting with 10/1 Gleneagles than be contemplating joining the Glee Club at 7/2.

I was at Haydock in July when debutant Faydhan blew the opposition away. Reading the RFO yesterday it seems Charlie Hills was a bit shocked that his colt Dutch Connection was beaten and names Faydhan as the horse he’d most like to train.

I was looking at Belardo but he is quite a late foal [1st April]and that’s a stat that puts me off him. Which is annoying cause he ticks a lot of the other boxes.

seetehsun

pretty sure i read somewhere,that Estidhkaar sustained a hairline fracture of the hock,in the race

moehat wrote:

I can’t get any info on French horses but does anyone know if Full Mast is very much a sprint bred horse?

Moe, Full Mast is by Mizzen Mast out of Yashmak.

Mizzen Mast was also trained by Ms Head-Maarek and was runner up in the Grand Prix de Paris over 10f, having won at 9.5f.

I am not a pedigree man but one of his best offspring has been Flotilla, who won the French 1000 Guineas in 2013.

Yashmak is a horse I know more about, because I backed her at 40/1 for the Oaks before she ever set foot on a racecourse. Owned by Khalid Abdullah and trained by Henry Cecil, she, unsurprisingly to my eyes, wasn’t involved in the 1000 Guineas but ran better at Epsom, finishing 4th to stable companion, and 14/1 Ante_post shot for me, Reams Of Verse in The Oaks. She went on to land the Ribblesdale at Royal Ascot in terrific style by nine lengths, before finishing runner up when 6/4f in The Irish Oaks, beaten by John Oxx’s Ebadilya, whom I had actually also punted each-way at Epsom, despite having a very strong position with 14/1 and 40/1 on the two Cecil Fillies.

As I say I am not a pedigree expert and I tend to judge on racing style and visual impression. Full Mast has been keen and/or made the running in his three races thus far. I feel he might need to settle better at Newmarket if he does travel over. As ever, the question is whether these French trained horses will stay at home for their own version of the Guineas. I wouldn’t back him for Newmarket myself.

Aiden O’Brien has indicated that John F Kennedy will stay in Ireland early season and take in the Ballysax and Derrinstown trials en route to Epsom.

That as good as rules him out of the 2000 Guineas but he was always doubtful for that race anyway in my opinion, as both he and Sir Isaac Newton always seemed more likely to be Derby contenders.

Money keeps trickling on Gleneagles and the 7/2 is drying up. I would imagine 3/1 will be the best price by the weekend.

Richard Hannon’s Estidhkaar seems to be failing to attract support so far and it all seems to be about Ivawood from that stable.

Somewhat bizarrely, Godolphin’s Charming Thought is shown as a positive mover into 16/1 but the reality seems more that those who were going 25/1 on him have removed him from their lists. Only five firms are quoting him now and he’s 94 on Betfair. Looks like a move to be very wary about as it looks a bit of a false indicator that his odds have shortened.

raymo61 wrote:

Charming Thought out til at least Royal Ascot Steve.
Never mind just get on Richard Pankhurst!!

I had been assuming all was not well with Charming Thought.

It is a pet hate of mine when these odds guides show a horse as blue, suggesting it has been backed, when in fact it just happens that the people quoting the higher odds have removed the horse from their betting. Of course, people should be aware of what they are backing but I thought these sites were meant to help punters get the best value and you can’t get value on a horse that won’t be running.

I was against the horse after his shock Middle Park win from Ivawood purely because of Godolphin’s own trainers poor early season form in particular and a general malaise all of last season, I also had doubts about him at a mile and it is interesting that connections mention both The St James’ Palace and the new Group 1 sprint as potential Royal Ascot targets.

To me a 20lb rise for his defeat of Ivawood on soft ground looked a tad fanciful but, as always, the proof will be in how he runs when he’s considered back to form.

I like the look of Richard Pankhurst myself. I was very impressed by the progress he made from his first to second run last season and Godolphin have wisely, a la Dawn Approach, left him with the original trainer.