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Aiden seems to have wrapped his 2yos in cotton wool and didn’t seem interested in having the champion 2yo.
Maiden – Tyros – Futurity – National Stks – Jean Luc Lagardere.
Betting without Rock of Gibraltar, that is about as ambitious a campaign as Aidan would have for a 2yo and given Gleneagles is also unbeaten (FPTP) he strikes as a very likely winner of the 2000 Guineas.Aiden seems to have wrapped his 2yos in cotton wool and didn’t seem interested in having the champion 2yo.
Maiden – Tyros – Futurity – National Stks – Jean Luc Lagardere.
Betting without Rock of Gibraltar, that is about as ambitious a campaign as Aidan would have for a 2yo and given Gleneagles is also unbeaten (FPTP) he strikes as a very likely winner of the 2000 Guineas.Gleneagles was 4th in his first race, so he’s not unbeaten. That was a theme with several of AOB’s top 2yo’s last year, so it’s just a technicality rather than a concern, and even the great Sea The Stars got chinned first time in his career.
My worries for Gleneagles would be whether he was more precocious than most of his stable mates last year and whether softer ground might be an issue. He ran mostly on faster ground and I just wonder if a stiff mile on ground with plenty of juice would be his bag.
Newmarket will surely be his best hope of a Classic. He’s prominent enough in The Derby betting but his profile suggests to me he’ll be unlikely to be a mile and a half horse.
He’s top rated of the AOB two year olds but not by a lot from Ol’ Man River and John F Kennedy, the next two in the ratings. They may find more improvement but it’s the usual guessing game as to who comes on most ove the winter.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
About this time of year I like to find something at big odds from left field for a bit of crack and hopefully some cash!
This year’s long-shot is John Gosden’s Fannaan, who is 25/1 for the 2000 Guineas.
He’s raced twice and won both times, starting off at Haydock in a 6F maiden on good ground. He was 5/2 that day and dwelt at the start going left at the same time. He raced on the stands side before switching left to chase the leader and he got in front with a furlong to go, keeping on well to win by three and a half lengths.
He was the only horse you would want to take from that racing moving forward but the runner up and 6th have managed to win races.
Fannaan’s next start saw him take on Hawkesbury in a 3 runner affair, a race where he was sent off 8/13 favourite against the Godolphin horse. Hawkesbury had been runner up to the much anticipated Limato on his debut before going on to win his maiden by 7 lengths heavily eased down on his next start. His next outing saw him finish runner up to Belardo, who would later land The Dewhurst.
Fannaan was stepping up to 7f and the going was soft when he met Hawkesbury and he quickened up nicely before being eased to win cosily by a length and a half.
Fannaan’s current rating of 98 is almost certainly a big underestimation of his potential. His trainer has the more highly touted Faydhan as well and is legendary for taking his time and improving his horses. In Fannaan he has a horse who probably isn’t that much behind the leading lights for the Guineas at this stage, given that he beat a horse in Hawkesbury, who is rated 104 now, with a good bit in hand. I think he will get a mile and he’s won on good and soft ground. Hawkesbury ran at Kempton last month and won cosily enough, the runner up winning since, all little bits of helpful encouragement.
John Gosden had stated that he’d be looking to the Classic trials with the horse in the Spring and I am hoping he’ll show up in one of the better ones.
Caution Dark Horse 2000 Guineas Fannaan 25/1Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
There has been more, good support for Gleneagles this past week. He’s a best price 8/1 now and as low as 6/1 in a place.
He seems very much the one for money from the O’Brien army parked thereabouts in the Guineas market.
A little bit of support for John Gosden’s Faydhan, who is much less exposed than the Ballydoyle horse who was disqualified in France, much to my disgust as I was waiting on him for a nice double on the day.
Paddy Power seem to know something about John F Kennedy, they go 16/1 on the horse who may be more of a Derby sort, in contrast to William Hills who are only 8/1.
There has been some interesting support for once raced Kevin Ryan colt Flaming Spear. I noted before his York debut that he had some decent entries and he went off 11/10 favourite on the day after confident backing. Ridden by Ryan Moore, he was a ready winner that day and became a Guineas springer shortly afterwards. When the dust settled he was generally a 25/1 shot but he is as low as 14/1 for the race now. Those odds look startling for a maiden winner, when you consider that Richard Hannon’s Ivawood is only 2pts shorter on 12/1, being a dual Group 2 winner. On the plus side, the maiden won by Flaming Spear has seen 7 horses win since but, on the down side, it’s all been quite low level fare, with the highest winning rating being 84. Flaming Spear is rated 99, and although he’s open to plenty of improvement he sits 20 lbs behind Dewhurst winner Belardo in the rankings. You can get 16/1 on Belardo, so, in my opinion, Flaming Spear is not looking value at only four points bigger at his best price of 20/1, far less the 14/1. The stable did provide the runner up with shocker Glory Awaits, when Dawn Approach won and Kevin Ryan arrived on the scene with The Grey Gatsby last season, so maybe this is the colt to follow in his footsteps. Not for me in this tough looking race to call though.
These colts seem to be the movers and shakers at this stage anyway.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
An odd time to revisit this thread in the middle of the jumps season but I can’t help but notice that there has been money for
Gleneaglesrecently.
Aiden O’Brien has a big say in the betting for this and recent support for his horse who was disqualified in France would seem to be significant you would think.
He is now as low as 6/1 favourite for the 2000 Guineas and it begs the question as to whether they have decided the others who are prominent in the Guineas betting are all showing up as Derby sorts on the gallops.
I hope some of the Gleneagles fans got on board when I posted the above back in January.
There was still some 10/1 available at the time but that is a distant memory now because the horse is a best priced 9/2 now, with Paddy Power going only 3/1, which looks scandalous value at this stage.
It looks like Gleneagles is this year’s Australia according to the market vibes. The difference here is this fellow looks more Guineas than Derby on his overall profile.
O’Brien’s Jamaica seems the one for money in the Derby and it is shaping up as if a lot of punters could be sent left-footed here with John F Kennedy, Ol’ Man River, Highland Reel and Sir Isaac Newton not giving off the positive vibes of the other horses.
Gleneagles is 20/1 for The Derby and there might be worse shouts than that, even allowing for stamina doubts. If he does win The 2000 Guineas and Aiden O’Brien says he’ll go to Epsom, he’ll be as short as a carrot and you’ll be in a good position to trade some of the 20/1 away.
Really strong move for Gleneagles anyway in the 2000 G. Which of the others is this season’s Geoffrey Chaucer? Sadly, I have to nominate Ol’ Man River at this stage of proceedings.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I’d be very wary of bets at this time of year as there is a history of ballydoyle horses flying on the gallops in March but not measuring up to the task come the first week in May. What this does suggest is that Aiden is sorting out where he is planning to send his string. With 4/5 guineas and Derby types he will be looking to make plans as early as possible. Find it hard to believe highland reel won’t be in the guineas field and I will be backing him if he does indeed turn up. I’d wait to see how the ballydoyle horses are doing but the fact that there hasn’t been any sent to Dubai suggests coolmore are gearing up for a cracking season. Who their top guineas horse I doubt we will know for a few weeks despite all the money for gleneagles.
I’d be very wary of bets at this time of year as there is a history of ballydoyle horses flying on the gallops in March but not measuring up to the task come the first week in May. What this does suggest is that Aiden is sorting out where he is planning to send his string. With 4/5 guineas and Derby types he will be looking to make plans as early as possible. Find it hard to believe highland reel won’t be in the guineas field and I will be backing him if he does indeed turn up. I’d wait to see how the ballydoyle horses are doing but the fact that there hasn’t been any sent to Dubai suggests coolmore are gearing up for a cracking season. Who their top guineas horse I doubt we will know for a few weeks despite all the money for gleneagles.
It’s early days yet but there’s been a lot of support and it must be based on something favourable.
I was initially a fan of Highland Reel but his drop back in distance win in the Vintage Stakes at Goodwood hasn’t worked out at all well. The only decent run to come from it was 4th horse Ahlan Emarati’s 3rd place in the Gimcrack and that one went on to disappoint badly in the Flying Childers at Doncaster the next time. Runner up Tupi, from the Richard Hannon yard, was beaten at odds on in France next time out, in listed company before finishing last of five to Elm Park at Salisbury in the same grade. He went on to run behind the same horse in The Racing Post Trophy, beaten rather badly by 19 lengths on the latter occasion, after being 8 lengths behind the first time they met.
It’s not looking a vintage renewal of The Vintage at this point.
The money may mean nothing ultimately but the cash keeps coming. Even the 4/1 is drying up now and 3 firms now go 3/1, whereas it was only one earlier today.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I’d be very wary of bets at this time of year as there is a history of ballydoyle horses flying on the gallops in March but not measuring up to the task come the first week in May. What this does suggest is that Aiden is sorting out where he is planning to send his string. With 4/5 guineas and Derby types he will be looking to make plans as early as possible. Find it hard to believe highland reel won’t be in the guineas field and I will be backing him if he does indeed turn up. I’d wait to see how the ballydoyle horses are doing but the fact that there hasn’t been any sent to Dubai suggests coolmore are gearing up for a cracking season. Who their top guineas horse I doubt we will know for a few weeks despite all the money for gleneagles.
Good point Sir,I recall vividly the rollercoaster ride of my 20/1 Henrythenavigator vouchers for the 2008 2000gns.Not only was ‘New approach’ a cause for concern but about this time back then a certain Jupitor Pluvius was attracting very similar support as ‘Gleneagles’,he was cut from 20’s to 8’s and never even lined up at Newmarket in May…He did nothing after to suggest he was nothing more than a morning glory.
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>mickeyjp wrote:</div>
I’d be very wary of bets at this time of year as there is a history of ballydoyle horses flying on the gallops in March but not measuring up to the task come the first week in May. What this does suggest is that Aiden is sorting out where he is planning to send his string. With 4/5 guineas and Derby types he will be looking to make plans as early as possible. Find it hard to believe highland reel won’t be in the guineas field and I will be backing him if he does indeed turn up. I’d wait to see how the ballydoyle horses are doing but the fact that there hasn’t been any sent to Dubai suggests coolmore are gearing up for a cracking season. Who their top guineas horse I doubt we will know for a few weeks despite all the money for gleneagles.Good point Sir,I recall vividly the rollercoaster ride of my 20/1 Henrythenavigator vouchers for the 2008 2000gns.Not only was ‘New approach’ a cause for concern but about this time back then a certain Jupitor Pluvius was attracting very similar support as ‘Gleneagles’,he was cut from 20’s to 8’s and never even lined up at Newmarket in May…He did nothing after to suggest he was nothing more than a morning glory.
It’s a different scenario here though Gord.
Jupiter Pluvius was only a group 3 winner and was starting out at odds of 20/1. Gleneagles is already a Group 1 winner and we know he’s rated right near the top of last season’s 2yo colts.
Part of the reason he was as big a price as he was for the 2000 Guineas is a) He’s had a busier juvenile campaign than some of last year’s highly regarded 2yos and b) He has several stable mates with wonderful pedigree’s and taking looking profiles.
Some will have argued that Gleneagles has less scope than other horses and perhaps may not fit their profile for a 2000 G winner. The support that has come for him suggests he may be looking the best contender from a strong looking bunch. It’s certainly the case that some of those from Ballydoyle may be more suited to distances in excess of a mile.
All in all we have seen a similar amount of support that we saw for Australia last year and that horse ran really close in a race where they split into groups across the track. Gleneagles looks a sharper sort than Australia into the bargain.
I think 4/1 is very poor value but I haven’t been watching the horse work. I am just pointing out that the nibbles on him that I started seeing in January have turned into a full scale bite by the look of it.
I am still feeling that Faydhan may turn out pretty smart and there’s been some money for Ivawood of late, who was narrowly beaten in the Middle Park but whom I have backed at 20/1 for this. Maybe I was wrong to rule him out after going down to the Godolphin horse but this Zebedee colt has to prove he’s trained on, to warrant the current odds of 10/1.
I notice that only Racebets are quoting your horse Giovanni Canaletto for the 2000 Guineas Gord. Do you know if he is staying in Ireland early doors or is he headed along the Derby preparation route? He’s a really late foal (8th May) and may come good in the second half of the season.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
some really good points made again(i do like the stuff that is posted on this forum).Its a big enough price not to do your ‘conkers’,but i would really be worried about backing Ivawood at trips above 7f.
But then again,i thought the same about Canford Cliffs.Steve my horse Giovanni Canaletto is not a Guineas horse,I have backed him for The Derby.Being a half Brother to one of my all time fav horses the Multi Group 1 winner Duke of Marmalade and a full Brother to a Derby winner in Ruler of the world this strapping Chestnut will want 11/2m come June.A Dante entry would bolster confidence mind as it shows he’ll have a bit of speec too.You raise some valid points as always mind.
Steve.
I did back Gleneagles at 10/1.
For me he was a ridiculous price. The horse is a dual group one winner at 2 (ignoring the disqualification), he is from the powerful O’Brien yard, is bred to get the trip with no bother and he has an ideal racing style for the Guineas. What’s not to like? I actually think his price at 4/1 is still too big when you consider that a number of the horses listed near the head of the market (albeit at decent prices) are O’Brien horses that are more likely to go for the Derby via one of the trials. Even if one of them lines up at Newmarket the suspicion is that it will be better over further and the dogs aren’t barking them out as anything outstanding like they were with Australia last year, In fact the market move for Gleneagles would suggest that he is the Ballydoyle Guineas horse. The others prominent in the market are Faydhan a once raced maiden winner of Gosden’s who although is highly regarded does not have the same hype or vibe as Kingman did and Ivawood a horse that has not raced beyond six furlongs and who’s sire was a sprinter.
Unless there’s a whisper for something which gathers steam or something wins a trial (probably the Greenham) in particularly striking fashion, Gleneagles looks sure to go off favourite and probably at less than 3/1.
Steve.
I did back Gleneagles at 10/1.
For me he was a ridiculous price. The horse is a dual group one winner at 2 (ignoring the disqualification), he is from the powerful O’Brien yard, is bred to get the trip with no bother and he has an ideal racing style for the Guineas. What’s not to like? I actually think his price at 4/1 is still too big when you consider that a number of the horses listed near the head of the market (albeit at decent prices) are O’Brien horses that are more likely to go for the Derby via one of the trials. Even if one of them lines up at Newmarket the suspicion is that it will be better over further and the dogs aren’t barking them out as anything outstanding like they were with Australia last year, In fact the market move for Gleneagles would suggest that he is the Ballydoyle Guineas horse. The others prominent in the market are Faydhan a once raced maiden winner of Gosden’s who although is highly regarded does not have the same hype or vibe as Kingman did and Ivawood a horse that has not raced beyond six furlongs and who’s sire was a sprinter.
Unless there’s a whisper for something which gathers steam or something wins a trial (probably the Greenham) in particularly striking fashion, Gleneagles looks sure to go off favourite and probably at less than 3/1.
There’s an awful lot to like about Gleneagles IB.
I didn’t warm to him right away but by the time he ran in France I had seen enough to make him my Nap over that Weekend, heavily favouring him over Coventry winner The Wow Signal. As we know, he ended up losing the race he would have kept under UK rules on interference.
He doesn’t have the scope of some of his stable companions but he’s the only one who really shouts Guineas at you.
There may not have been so much expectation about Faydhan but he only ran once and Kingman had run twice before his injury and was exposed more to the general public in the process via televised coverage. There has been steady enough nibbling at Faydhan in the market and at his general price of 8/1, I think he’s actually shorter than Kingman was at this time last year. I would need to check exactly when but I know I backed Kingman at 9/1 in the lead up to the Greenham last year.
I suppose other contenders for an outside bet might be Dewhurst winner Belardo, who, at 20/1 is bigger than maiden winner Flaming Spear in some places, which is insane really.
I also note one of Gosden’s other horses Richard Pankhurst, who made some good progress last year, is 20/1 in places but only 10/1 with Paddy Power, which stands out. He won the Chesham in taking fashion at Royal Ascot and the form looks pretty smart. Runner up Toscanini ran Gleneagles to a length and a half in a Group 1, while third horse, Dick Whittington, won a group 3 and then landed the Group 1 Phoenix on his following start. The 4th horse in the Chesham, Nafaqa, won a listed race before running Racing Post Trophy winner Elm Park to a length in the Gp 2 Royal Lodge.
All rather encouraging bits of form for Richard Pankhurst and the obvious question is why the Ravens Pass colt hasn’t been out again. He was bought by Sheikh Mohammed from John Gosden’s wife and will race in the Godolphin colours but as far as I am aware he is still in Mr Gosden’s care. Rated 116 and near the top of the juvenile tree, right beside Gleneagles, he is getting on for six times the price of the Fav as things stand and, at 20/1 there are a lot worse value prospects in the list.
Richard Pankhurst 20/1 2000 Guineas nominated as the “Forgotten Horse” for this year.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Gleneagles does look an ideal guineas type and is sure to be in the frame. It would seem he is ballydoyles main hope for the guineas with highland reel and dick Whittington as back up. Ol man river and jfk will probably go straight to 10f before stepping up to the Derby trip. Unless someone dazzles in the greenham then gleneagles will be worthy favourite although how they have progressed from two to three needs to be taken on trust. The last week before the guineas will tell us how the market thinks horses are doing but until they run you can never tell.
Joseph O’ Brien has more or less said Gleneagles is his Guineas horse and that he thinks he’s got a great chance.
Just a few spots of 4/1 left out there now and it seems a question of how low he’ll get over the next few weeks.
Still trickles of money for Faydhan and Ivawood, suggesting a three-way go, a la Australia, Kingman, Night Of Thunder repeat could be on the cards from the same three yards this season.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I am a new user this time around but I have been taken with the quality of the discussion and the individual knowledge especially from Steve Caution and others. I myself have studied horse racing breeding for a long while and have my own ideas about the Classic Racing. My son in law was connected to a number of stables around the Newmarket area including SMS and James Fanshawe with my greatest disappointment when his horse Environment Friend got taken out around the bend at Epsom ridden by George Duffield just before the home straight in the 1991 Derby won by Generous. Does anyone recall this ?. My own thought is that the horse wasn’t strong enough to handle the hustle and bustle and got unbalanced so could not get into his usual stride in the run in. He subsequently went on to win the Eclipse at odds of 28/1.
My question is why do you think the Danzig / Mr Prospector lines appears to be the main indicators when running at Newmarket in the Guineas both for 1000 especially and the 2000. Is there something about the build of the horse that gets passed down in the breeding or is it just a coincidence. I note that Danzig lines tend to have more speed but enough stamina that can last the mile. I also note that Sadler Wells and Northern Dancer lines have been strong over the decades and none more so now than Galileo which is standout but this breed is noted for its battling qualities and appears to have stamina to burn and courage where it matters most in the run in. Sorry I didn’t mean to ramble on but I am interested to hear your thoughts on this with the Classics coming up shortly.
I’m looking at some old notes that I have in a book . I’d scribbled down gd/firm Mr Prospector fillies; softer Danehill Dancer. 1,000,2,000 gns horses entered in 1ml1;2 races later in the season. Giants Causeway 1ml. Guineas winners Northern Dancer/Mr Prospector crosses. Galileo; not enough speed to win over a mile [that seems to have gone out the window now]. The 2,000gns can throw up some strange, big priced results sometimes and I’ve been very lucky with the race…but the O’Brien horse seems to have everything, including being a very early foal so he will be a lot more mature than some of these babies. Perhaps you can make more sense of my notes than I can!
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