2000 guineas 2015

stevecaution wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>IBRacing wrote:</div>
Gleneagles as big as 7/2. I am very surprised by that. Surely he’ll be heavily backed today?

If he isn’t I’d worry about his chances as the vibes would be fairly alarming.

Don’t want to worry you but Betfred are going 9/2 at the moment. That seems crazy value.

That’s gone now, back to 4/1. Given the drift, the horse is surprisingly stable on Betfair at 7/2.

“I can’t have Mark Prescott at this stage of the season ……. and Celestial Path makes no appeal to me at all for the Guineas.” It is interesting how two people can look at the same information and come to opposite conclusions. I think Mark Prescott runs his seasons on the basis of how he wants to operate and the type of horses he has in the stable. In his previous forty years he has had only two Guineas candidates, one of whom finished second. He would only run Celestial Path if he thought the horse had a very good chance. Mark Prescott has all the skills necessary to get the horse to peak performance on the chosen day. I expect the alternative plan would have been to have the horse win the Cambridgeshire off 94 this year and 108 next year.

“The chink in the favourite’s armour is that his damsire is Storm Cat. Storm Cat’s progeny tend toward being precocious. IE they may be better at 2, not train on at 3.” There must be a lot of Storm Cat’s that trained on at three and beyond. Giant’s Causeway sprang to mind straight away. When I started looking at the record books in alphabetical order I found After Market, Aljabr, Bluegrass Cat, Caress, Cat Appeal, Cat Thief, Catinca who were all top class at three, four and beyond. There must have been plenty more who were not top class who trained on too. I did not think it worthwhile to look at all the “D” to “Z” horses.

The team of owner Hamdan Al Maktoum has a good handle on the relative abilities of all the English runners. Since there is no evidence that the Aiden O’Brien’s runners have trained on, developed over the winter, are forward enough, are in a stable that his hit form yet, or have been backed like defeat is out of the question, I think that Intilaaq and Estidhkaar will run as a team and that Intilaaq will prevail. His winning time at Newbury in comparison with the older handicappers in the Spring Cup was excellent, he has potential for much further improvement, he likes fast ground, and his Dynaformer ruggedness and stamina will edge out Estidhkaar.

My main problem in making this forecast is that I am wrong so much of the time!

Gingertipster wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Gingertipster wrote:</div>
My 100% book on good-firm (although not in to a head wind)

Estidhkaar 4/1, Territories 9/2, Gleneagles 5/1, Ol Man River 10/1, Intilaaq 10/1, Ivawood 15/1, Elm Park 20/1, Moheet 22/1, Dutch Connection 22/1, Kool Kompany 40/1, Ride Like The Wind 50/1, Celestial Path 50/1, , Glenalmond 400/1, Home Of The Brave 400/1, Room Key 400/1, Cppella Sansevero 500/1, Bossy Guest 500/1, Code Red 1000/1, Hail The Hero 1000/1.

Estikhaar, Territories and Moheet all shortening.

I hope it’s a good sign for Moheet Ginger, he’s the only horse I’ve bet on. I missed the 33s but took 25/1 with Ladbrokes who were last to stand that. He’s shortened with most, but Betvictor have moved him out to 22/1, which i think a pretty sound e/w. It seems there is a strong headwind straight into them, so I think you are going to need a horse who properly gets a mile, Moheet definitely fits that bill.

I’ve had a great idea how to make money on telivised races on saturdays, channel 4 have a +1 channel, now if they could organise a -1 channel, we would be quids in…….simples

stevecaution wrote:

My gut feeling is that Gleneagles and Territories will fight the finish out here and I doubt there will be much between them.

Pi55 easy game this

Lol very nice call Steve

Couldn’t have been more wrong about Gleneagles.

BigG wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>stevecaution wrote:</div>

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>stevecaution wrote:</div>
My gut feeling is that Gleneagles and Territories will fight the finish out here and I doubt there will be much between them.

Pi55 easy game this

I take my hat off to you Steve, I hope you had the forecast. Gleneagles looked in a different class, it makes me wonder why I keep looking for alternatives to the obvious best horse, trained by the trainer most likely to win, and ridden by the best flat jockey on the planet.

I don’t know what Dettori was doing at the start with Moheet, he seemed to lose ground and switched behind horses to the stand rails. This put him last and when he did ask for something 3 furlongs out, he did improve quickly but then veered towards the middle before bumping into another horse, and that was that.

I did put Night Of Thunder up last year at 40/1…..maybe I’ve had my 15 mins of fame

I didn’t have the forecast. Last year I had Kingman to beat Night Of Thunder and saw it come other way round. This year I backed the second at 7/1 and the 3rd at 20/1 but missed the 10/1 I toyed with on Gleneagles early in the year.

Yet again I got a lot more right than wrong but won nothing. I’m just a fun punter, very few each-ways and it doesn’t matter much if I don’t win any money.

I didn’t think Estidhkaar would stay, I watched the Greenham several times and he races with the choke out virtually all the way in his races. He appeared to keep on at Muhaarar after being headed but I think the Charlie Hills horse was running on fumes in the closing stages and think the evidence was deceiving regarding the Hannon colt’s staying capability.

It was crazy to think Gleneagles was 4/1 and a five grand maiden winner Intilaaq only 8/1. Two 100/1 shots and a 50/1 shot finished ahead of Roger Varian’s ridiculously priced colt today and yet again the supplementary fee has beguiled punters into backing a horse with all sorts of negative trends to defy.

Ivawood ran really well and he’s trained on well enough. Like Canford Cliffs he wasn’t fit enough first time and couldn’t quite win the Guineas. I can’t quite see him repeating that horse’s rise to fame thereafter though, as today’s winner looked the proverbial different gravy.

Territories was a bit slowly away and was far enough back, he finished his race off quite well and deserved to be second. The Lagardere was accused of being a race where it was messy and they all finished in a heap but it proved the key to this year’s Guineas.

I don’t know if Ol’ Man River went wrong but he was a silly price in my opinion today, having looked an unlikely runner for most of the spring. That would appear to be his Derby hopes up the chute as well now and I did say on the forum earlier this year that I had an odd feeling that the horse was going to be this year’s Geoffrey Chaucer and that was an abysmal run by any standards today.

I said on the Derby thread that 20/1 Gleneagles might look a big price come today and he’s half those odds now. I’ve had a bit of the 10/1 because he’ll shrivel if the “Boys” say that is his next big target.

Nathan Hughes wrote:

Hannon has supposedly said Estidhkaar will win the guineas after his performance yesterday.
I’m guessing he’s left plenty to work with and expects the horse to come on a bundle for the run out.

Was that the six furlong Afghanistan Guineas Nathan?

Happy enough to see Glen Eagles win the race as he figures in a good number of my accumulator bets and I was on at double figures but what happened with Ol’ Man River. Do you think it was the ground that was his undoing or the way he was ridden and therefore given an easy ride without taking to much out of him, perhaps saving him for another day.

Nathan Hughes wrote:

I’m first in the queue at Weston Super Mare to ride the Donkey Derby.
I’m skipping the ride on Estidkaar in favour of the second favourite Ted.

Is that where you’re from Nathan?
Is that Brean Down in the background?