- This topic has 243 replies, 32 voices, and was last updated 9 years, 5 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
I don’t think Muhaarar going to France is negative to Estidhkaar’s chances. I think it just means he won’t stay a straight mile.
Celestial Path seems to get outpaced in his races or he’s just a monkey.
I am an Estidhkaar backer so I do have rose-tinted glasses on but he is bred for a mile, rather than being bred for further like most of the other horses. He’s also drawn between Kool Kompany & Ivawood, so with a bit of luck will get a nice tow into the race.
Timeform also has him as clear top-rated, with a p. https://t.co/6jDhhJrP94
I think Charlie Hills may regret not taking his chance in this race. It’s a stiffer mile here but the ground is looking like it would have been very much in Muhaarar’s favour and it’s more than half the battle if the ground is right. The horse will either get a mile or he won’t and any slowly run race/ easier track in France can be more than offset is the ground turns soft. If Muhaarar is a short runner he won’t win on soft even if they crawl.
With the way the field has cut up and some more stoutly bred contenders here, I reckon I would have taken my chance on the fast ground and if he didn’t get home then fair enough and drop back in trip. If Estidhkaar and Ivawood finish 1-2 here, I think I would end up feeling like the “Breast Of The Year” for taking a horse who had beaten them both to another race.
The race looks like it might be Kool Kompany taking stablemates Ivawood and Estidhkaar, plus Ol’ Man River (Drawn 7-5-6-2) along on one side, and potentially Home Of The Brave the pace angle with Gleneagles and Territories on the other (Drawn 17-16-19). Despite the stalls being moved, the action may end up at opposite sides late on. Pick a side, high or low?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
My system qualifiers are:-
Gleneagles (10.1)
Intilaaq (10.05)
Moheet (9.7)
Ol’ Man River (10.25)
Room Key (10.1)My system could be vulnerable if there were to be fast ground, a smaller field than historically, and a lack of pace. Ie if the race turned into a test wholly of speed rather than speed/stamina. I’ve not yet analysed the likely pace of the race. Here I share my research on Gleneagles from a breeding perspective:-
The chink in the favourite’s armour is that his damsire is Storm Cat. Storm Cat’s progeny tend toward being precocious. Ie they may be better at 2, not train on at 3. Consider in Guineas history 2004. AOB’s One Cool Cat sent off at 15/8 favourite, warm stable vibes and all, trails in 13th of 14. His sire – Storm Cat.
Now, Gleneagles’ sire is of course Galileo. Like all Sadlers Wells, an influence for progression with age. And the dam You’resothrilling is a full sister to Giant’s Causeway (2000) who enjoyed an illustrious 3yo campaign. The balancing factors there are the presence of Rahy and Roberto in the pedigree. So plenty of influences for progression. But, in the genetic lottery, the possible influence of Storm Cat is still present. Consider You’resothrilling herself. Her finest hour came in winning the Cherry Hinton as a juvenile. At 3 she raced twice albeit at the highest level but was unplaced. So the favourite does carry a small risk that he may not have trained on. From that perspective one might hope that Gleneagles may be more like his sire. Though there the risk would be that he’d be tapped for toe on fast ground with a lack of pace. AOB has said that Gleneagles reminds him of Giant’s Causeway. Which leans towards speed but also of course to the risk that, like the dam perhaps, like One Cool Cat for sure, Gleneagles may not have trained on/ progressed from 2 to 3/ not to the extent of other rivals.
Interestingly there is a fairly brisk SE wind forecast for Saturday and that is a headwind on the Rowley mile.
So the speedier, front running types may have something additional to overcome.I have been on Gleneagles since last October and am as confident as I can be given he hasn’t debuted yet this season.
I am all over Ol’ Man River for the Derby and am really in two minds about his sudden elevation in the market, I guess I should cover and I don’t think anyone is a bigger fan of Aidan O’Brien than myself but if he wins a second Guineas with a Montjeu he is probably some kind of deity.By the way I would certainly not consider Estidhkaar as ‘pure bred miler’…looks like a sprinter on the page but might just get a mile. Not the Rowley mile though and not into a headwind.
My 100% book on good-firm (although not in to a head wind)
Estidhkaar 4/1, Territories 9/2, Gleneagles 5/1, Ol Man River 10/1, Intilaaq 10/1, Ivawood 15/1, Elm Park 20/1, Moheet 22/1, Dutch Connection 22/1, Kool Kompany 40/1, Ride Like The Wind 50/1, Celestial Path 50/1, , Glenalmond 400/1, Home Of The Brave 400/1, Room Key 400/1, Cppella Sansevero 500/1, Bossy Guest 500/1, Code Red 1000/1, Hail The Hero 1000/1.
Value Is EverythingProsser is putting 5mm of water on today, according to Turftrax.
He won’t let it lie…will he?Gleneagles has wandered in his last 3 races.
I think he’s a horse who doesn’t do anything once he gets to the front. Ryan Moore will have to time him to perfection here and I think he should get a good lead from Home Of The Brave, with the problem perhaps being the Hugo Palmer horse running out of petrol a bit sooner than would be ideal. I expect Territories and Gleneagles to leave him behind and probably fight out the finish on the high drawn side.
Across the other side I think Ol’ Man River will try to come past Estidhkaar and Kool Kompany in the closing stages, along with Ivawood. I’d like to have seen the O’Brien stable in better form but I think Ol’ Man River may surprise some pundits with his amount of speed. If he has trained on OK he should go close and Joseph O’ Brien’s first comment after the Beresford was that the Montjeu colt would/could have won/win at 7f.
I’m not a fan of the Craven form this year and can’t have Kool Kompany or Moheet winning this, I doubt either will prove fast enough and I think it’s telling that the horse who split them in the trial, Nafaqa, heads for Chester and The Dee Stakes over a longer trip. Richard Hughes initially said that he felt Kool Kompany would head for France or Ireland and you would think it odd that Hannon is racing Estidhkaar, Ivawood, Kool Kompany and Moheet, if any one of them held that outstanding a chance.
It will really need to be a bad renewal of the race for a maiden winner like Intilaaq to lift this and there is still the chance it was just a bad maiden he won by 8 lengths. They went 12/1 bar three horses in that race and the favourite was from a Gosden stable who were having a mixed bag of results at the time, with horses such as Faydhan and Lady Correspondent very disappointing in their trials. He’s not one for me at all here.
My gut feeling is that Gleneagles and Territories will fight the finish out here and I doubt there will be much between them.
Good luck to everyone and especially those who backed Estidhkaar at 25/1 before the trials.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I think Estidhkaar would be a very popular winner for a lot of people, especially the stopwatch gurus and paddock watchers.
Laydeeeezzz and gentlemen! I am about to try and pick the winner of the season’s first classic using nothing more than the short comments provided by my lovely assistant Adrian Cook AKA Spotlight.
In my left hand, I have Moheet. In my right, Celestial Path. Territories has exited stage left, rejected in Dusty Bin fashion, due to his comparatively short price.
Watch this space!
Good luck to you proper form students
Good luck Joe,the 2000gns is my fav flat race of the year and my own bets are an Ante-Post bet on Ivawood at a stingey 10/1 from last October,has been 25’s since he could be this years ‘Red clubs’.I’ve had an interest on Kool Kompany at 50/1 e/w as I always like Craven form but the horse I have lumped on and am seriously contemplating going down to lead him in is this Intilaaq at 12/1.He has plenty more to come and is arguably the least exposed horse in the race.What he did at Newbury should have been enough for Paul Hanagan to stay loyal to him but strangely he’s deserted him.I can see Dane stealing a lead and others failing to cut him down….Here’s hoping anyway.
I’m going to back Celestial Path, Ride Like [with?] the Wind [who has beaten Territories in the past], Room Key and Kool Company.
I am struggling to see past Glen Eagles with Moheet and Estidhkaar but if Elm Park handles the ground if indeed he lines up then I think he could be in the mix as well. In truth I don’t know and have a few quid on a number of the runners so its a question of sitting back and seeing who comes out top. I am pleased with most of the odds I got on at early on so with exception of the bottom 5 in the betting I have a saver running on it with the best outcome being Estidhkaar and Glen Eagles, Old Man River and Elm Park. But that’s the racing game you pays the money and takes your choice.
Estidhkaar still my pick got him a couple pound each/way at 16’s along with Ivawood a bit more at 8’s from last years Ante Post. I went a tad silly on Peacock and had over forty which went in the bin so any winnings will only cover losses on the Pea-cock.
It’s not the best renewal but certainly intriguing.Blackbeard to conquer the World
I think this might be between the two O’Brien horses. Wouldn’t write off Territories either, the benefit of a prep might help him reverse the Lagardere form. Finally, Intilaaq is quite the intriguing runner in the race. So, Gleneagles-Ol’ Man River-Territories-Intilaaq for me, probably in that order. Not sure I’m gonna back anything though.
I think this might be between the two O’Brien horses. Wouldn’t write off Territories either, the benefit of a prep might help him reverse the Lagardere form. Finally, Intilaaq is quite the intriguing runner in the race. So, Gleneagles-Ol’ Man River-Territories-Intilaaq for me, probably in that order. Not sure I’m gonna back anything though.
I’m right with you on the first three horses and for me Ol’ Man River is the best result financially but I find the fact that he was a doubt until very recently a confidence stifler.
I think a lot of people went “Wow” when Intilaaq hosed up in his maiden but I worry how good the race was. The favourite on the the day, John Gosden’s Keble, is jocked up with Frankie for his next race and it’s at Chester, in a maiden race, worryingly over ten furlongs. It doesn’t suggest he’s that well regarded and it looks like he’ll be out to get a mark to go handicapping. Of course Varian’s colt will improve but he needs more than a stone yet to make the frame here and it’s a huge leap in class in only two weeks.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Gleneagles as big as 7/2. I am very surprised by that. Surely he’ll be heavily backed today?
If he isn’t I’d worry about his chances as the vibes would be fairly alarming.
Gleneagles as big as 7/2. I am very surprised by that. Surely he’ll be heavily backed today?
If he isn’t I’d worry about his chances as the vibes would be fairly alarming.
Don’t want to worry you but Betfred are going 9/2 at the moment. That seems crazy value.
I was a bit disappointed with the Sporting Life online pundit who was previewing the race and deemed that Gleneagles seemed the O’Brien number one contender despite Joseph being on Ol’ Man River. Surely must have missed the announcement that Ryan Moore will be riding the horses deemed the leading chance for Ballydoyle this year.
Elm Park is out of the race as expected. Andrew Balding was originally going to wait until after the first race to decide but has given up and now says the Dante is a possibility. He should meet Jack Hobbs there, as John Gosden said earlier in the week that his Derby springer was going to run there next.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.