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Richard Hughes has said he’s confident Ivawood will reverse form with Estidhkaar in the Guineas.
The horse had been working well in his opinion prior to the Greenham and he’s convinced Estidhkaar was simply the fitter horse on the day.
With winner Muhaarar not even sure to be running in the Guineas (33/1 in a place) it makes me question the form of the Greenham anyway and I’ll be pleasantly surprised if my first bet on the race, Ivawood at 20/1, turns out to be a winner.
I’m not a Charlie Hills fan and I might have gone for Dutch Connection but for that. He had a good season last year and it still amazes me that Faydhan, who brushed him aside by six lengths, was such a bitter disappointment in the Free Handicap, especially with the stables excellent form since. That’s the joy of horse racing though, you’re never complacent for a second in this game.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Hughes said he was confident Ivawood would beat Estidhkaar last time too. The man talks an awful lot.
I’m on Estidhkaar at 20s and I expect it to run a really solid race, but probably in defeat. I’m on EW and I think my place chances are probably more likely.
I love Home of the Brave, followed this horse since its debut at Windsor last year. Still a bit gutted I let the hype of Faydhan stop me from backing it last time. Think it will run well but final furlong presents a lot of questions.
Belardo price will tumble if we do get a couple of wet days, it’s chance relies upon that.
Gleneagles very solid on form, price does not interest me.
Intilaaq hugely impressive last time out,but I didn’t go in on the 20s on offer after, so cannot really justify going in now at 11s. It was always going to be supplemented imo.
At the prices, I think I will give another chance to Moheet EW. Travelled well off the pace at Newmarket in slowish run race, 2f from home I would have wanted to have my money on it, but it just stayed on without ever really threatening. Will strip fitter for that run, will have a stronger pace to sit off on Saturday and he could be an overlooked horse at a tempting 25/1.I’m going on Saturday and will let a few quid role on Moheet for 2000G glory .
I cannot remember being so underwhelmed and unexcited by the first colts’ classic.
To me , this looks a very average renewal.
No horse or horses scream out at me.
I thought the Greenham failed to shed much light on it at all :
Ivawood may well have lacked fitness but he looked well held by the winner.
I just can’t see the Hannon horse winning.
Territories could be anything ; Fabre is usually
not one who crosses the channel just for a day out.
So, I must turn to Balydoyle once again in search of the winner.
Having reviewed Gleneagles’ races and studied his style of running
I have come to the conclusion that , favourite or not,
that the O’Brien colt has the requisite amount of speed
and stamina to take first prize.Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
The Wow Signal is out of the race after picking up an injury. Hard lines to anyone who had him.
Ol’ Man River seems the one for money at the moment. Estidhkaar has hit 10/1 with Sportingbet. Told you 8/1 wasn’t value
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Highland Reel is also confirmed as missing the Guineas. There has been much speculation and weakness in the market regarding him and he had flip-flopped as the horse likely to keep Gleneagles company on the way over to Newmarket with Ol’ Man River.
I haven’t seen a tip for Territories anywhere. I don’t know if it’s the fact that he’s come into it out of nowhere recently or if people just don’t think he’s a good bet at 7/1. With the general uncertainty over O’Brien’s team and others dropping by the wayside it seemed sensible to go in again at 7/1. I’ll be surprised if he’s not in the 1-2-3 and would rather risk him than Maiden winners and those defeated in the trials.
Highland Reel heads for the French 2000 Guineas instead.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Friend of mine made quite a valid point I thought – Estidhkaar one of the very few pure mile-bred horses. All the rest bred for further or sprinters.
Belardo and Maftool both out of the race as well now. The rain didn’t come for Belardo and he heads to the French 2000 Guineas now, along with Maftool.
Should be a good French Guineas at this rate!
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I was thinking that was a good 8-10f sort of breeding [although the dam wasn’t all that good..unless she’s related to something better].
Bookies are now pushing out the horses they’ve previously taken money on and shortening the likes of Ol’ Man River, Intilaaq and Territories – horses they wouldn’t have taken money on. Makes sense I suppose to balance books somewhat.
You can get 11/4 about Gleneagles – that is a great price, he won’t be that on the day unless the heavens open or the late vibes are bad.
I think Celestial Path will get the mile ok. Draw 1 might be a problem unless he breaks quick.
I have backed him to win and to place. As far as I know Sir Mark has not had a winner this season and this colt has hardly been mentioned until today on here. Does anyone know how he has been in training? I have assumed the soft ground went against him in the Racing post trophy but he still came 3rd. His sire won this on good to firm ground.‘Slowly into stride’ in his early couple of races which doesn’t sound ideal, does it. And doesn’t seem to ‘quicken’ in his races either. I’d love to be a fly on the wall in the Prescott yard, though, but it’s worth a go at 25/1. Desperately trying to find an alternative to the O’Brien two, but I’m really struggling.
Elm Park is deemed almost certain to miss the race on account of the fast ground. The trainer reckons it would take a miracle for enough rain to fall in time for him.
I can’t recall such a carve up of contenders coming into a race and even the Greenham winner Muhaarar is out of it now as well.
To me it doesn’t inspire confidence in Estidhkaar’s chances that his conqueror is not deemed worthy of contesting the Guineas.
Gleneagles may well look a nailing bet at 11/4 currently available, given that so many have dropped by the wayside. The two worries would be the general stable form that has seen some drop out of contention, with doubt still existing about Found in the 1000 Guineas as well, and the possibility, to my eyes, that Territories might have caught the favourite up over the winter.
It’s been an amazing race for ante-post moves, both outwards and inwards. I was on oxygen when Ol’ Man River hit 20/1, yet he’s now 7/1 simply by dint of being declared for the race and having watched his rivals fall by the wayside.
Dutch Connection is probably the best value left at 20/1 for each-way punters. Home Of The Brave looks a sprint type to me, despite his trainer’s confidence and Ivawood is more about jockey talk than actual form this year. I can’t have Mark Prescott at this stage of the season, he had a winner more than a month ago but has been doing very little of late. The stable’s good stayer Pallasator was tailed off stone last earlier in the week and Celestial Path makes no appeal to me at all for the Guineas.
I hope Ol’ Man River can run well and at least enhance his Derby prospects. Aiden O’Brien is not sure if the horse will stay but I’ve been behind him for both Classics for ages now and it’s quite ironic that he’s back here as one of my best shots after looking like he was off the agenda for this race.
Ivawood was the first horse I backed and it’s sort of a miracle that he’s a shorter price than the 20/1 I took all that time ago. I don’t have any confidence in him winning this but I’ll take it if he does somehow manage to go and do better than Canford Cliffs. Just like Canford Cliffs, a French horse may pop up and win this year.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I have just been and backed Dutch Connection again Steve!! This is a surreal situation with everything dropping out and it wouldn’t surprise if Gleneagles absolutely sluiced in but then again the opposite wouldn’t surprise me either and I am not keen on AOB horses that haven’t had a run.
I have also had a save on Estidhkaar purely in the belief that it is relatively reliable
I don’t think Muhaarar going to France is negative to Estidhkaar’s chances. I think it just means he won’t stay a straight mile.
Celestial Path seems to get outpaced in his races or he’s just a monkey.
I am an Estidhkaar backer so I do have rose-tinted glasses on but he is bred for a mile, rather than being bred for further like most of the other horses. He’s also drawn between Kool Kompany & Ivawood, so with a bit of luck will get a nice tow into the race.
Timeform also has him as clear top-rated, with a p. https://t.co/6jDhhJrP94
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