2000 guineas 2015

Maurice wrote:

Would I back Estidhkaar now at 8/1?

Probably not. I’d want to see what turns up on the day and have another deep look at the form.

However, as I’ve said, I took the 25/1 last summer because the time he’d put up was on a par with previous Guineas winners at a similar stage and I took the 25/1 again before Saturday’s race in the expectation that he would win and more than halve in price. He’s more than halved in price despite not winning so I’m happy enough with my position. I can now think about laying off all or part of the bets to ensure a very tidy profit regardless.

How’s that for value?

The question was never whether 25/1 was value, it was whether 8/1 was value.

I notice Andre Fabre’s Territories is creeping into various bookmakers lists and varies between 5/1 and 8/1 in price. That’s come from left field as far as I am concerned and is another factor that might take the shine off any value still deemed to be in Estidhkaar, who is generally 7/1 now.

Territories ran behind Full Mast last year on two occasions and was half a length behind in the Lagardere, when Full Mast got beaten narrowly by Gleneagles and then was awarded the race. It looked to me that further than the 7F of that race would suit Territories and he won on his reappearance in the GP3 Prix Fontainebleu, over a mile, very smoothly.

I am assuming some people think Territories is going to aimed at the race and he has a current Racing Post rating of 114, and that is only two behind Estidhkaar and Gleneagles who are rated 116. You can see why some people believe he might be competitive at Newmarket.

I think another factor in the sudden interested in Territories (needs to be supplemented, I believe) is the weather forecast for the next 10 days. Territories has some very fair form which would make him competitive but his most visually compelling efforts (rated lower) have been on softer ground at Chantilly last summer and this year in the Prix de Fontainebleau.
The forecast for Newmarket shows rain every day from this Saturday 25th of April up to and including Guineas Saturday on the 2nd of May.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2641616

If this scenario proves accurate and Newmarket gets rain on 8 straight days, then Territories chance would probably be enhanced whilst at the same time the hopes of Gleneagles, from that Giant’s Causeway line with Mariahs Storm, would appear to be diminished. Gleneagles has a classic daisy-cutting action to back up the evidence of his pedigree.
There is a sideways-on shot about 1.5f out in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagadere which shows this very well.

He will be half the horse if its sticky at all and might point to why Ballydoyle have not yet ruled out Ol’ Man River.
I, for one, am praying for much less rain than expected in the next 10 days.

Territories is as low as 5/1 in one place. That is short even if he is supplemented. There is nothing in his form so far that says he can win a Guineas. His overall form is solid enough though and I think he should be around a 9 or 10/1 shot.

An interesting recruit to the field if he does run.

stevecaution wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>IBRacing wrote:</div>
Territories is as low as 5/1 in one place. That is short even if he is supplemented. There is nothing in his form so far that says he can win a Guineas. His overall form is solid enough though and I think he should be around a 9 or 10/1 shot.

An interesting recruit to the field if he does run.

I’d agree with that.

Territories needs to have improved over the winter. He ends up not that far behind Gleneagles in the Lagardare but if you watch the race again, Gleneagles quickens up by far the best of the field and looks like he’ll win by a couple of lengths. In retrospect I think Joseph would have held onto him a little longer and he seems to idle in front, ultimately being driven to repel the two French horses.

In his favour are the fact that he looked a little smaller than some of the others last year and as a late foal he may have caught up physically to some extent. With the Guineas being early in the year though, it means that the horse still won’t actually be 3 years old until five days after the Guineas. Gleneagles will line up in the race aged 3 years four months and 20 days. That’s a fair difference and about as much as I can recall between two horses in a classic, sitting 1st and 2nd in some betting lists.

Good points made there. Another to consider is that, with no disrespect to Joseph, Gleneagles is likely to be partnered by Ryan Moore and if there’s one jockey you can usually rely on to make the minimum of mistakes it’s Moore.

Gleneagles is as short as 6/4 now, I don’t think he’ll go off much bigger than that unless the rain comes. For me he is the clear form choice.

Ian wrote:

Gleneagles is as short as 6/4 now, I don’t think he’ll go off much bigger than that unless the rain comes. For me he is the clear form choice.

IMO his form can be easily picked apart, and RPR116 for a 2-time 2yo Group 1 winner is painfully low. Got a very good breeding CV already as a result of clever race placement IMO, and I’m fairly confident he’ll get found out.

Zarkava wrote:

IMO his form can be easily picked apart, and RPR116 for a 2-time 2yo Group 1 winner is painfully low. Got a very good breeding CV already as a result of clever race placement IMO, and I’m fairly confident he’ll get found out.

It was just a poor year for ratings last year. Belardo on 119 was the lowest since ratings began. It’s more about what Gleneagles has to beat this year, rather than comparing him to years where the standard was deemed higher.

Belardo had a mini flop already, as did Ivawood, Charming Thought misses the race and Elm Park may be more of a Derby type. For all that the 116 is a relatively low rating Glenaeagles is as near as damn it up there with the best of them and there are only a few you would think might improve past him.

It was 10/1 the field at one stage, telling its own story about no outstanding candidate but there was steady support for Gleneagles, so we have to assume he was looking the most likely on the gallops at Ballydoyle.

I haven’t backed him and he’s too short now but I think we have to respect him because he has a few months age advantage and is a horse who looks like he’ll never win by far.

Looking at the race I would think Highland Reel and Ol’ Man River are two of the potential improvers but they are from the same stable as Gleneagles and you would think they know where they stand as regards the pecking order of the three.

Intilaaq was mighty impressive but we don’t know what he beat or whether he definitely runs. It also has to be asked how many Guineas winners have won after winning a class 4 maiden race two weeks before the big race?

Intilaaq earned a rating of 97 for his maiden win and that leaves him with a good bit of improvement still to make. It would be a big ask to compete at Group 1 level this soon and patience may reward his connections, rather than rushing him into a Classic.

It is pretty open but if Gleneagles is fit and well on the day he seems sure to go close. You can just imagine him mowing down the leaders to win by a length.

The market vibes are bad for Highland Reel and Zawraq this morning. 20/1 and 33/1 available respectively.

That would suggest somebody thinks they won’t be running on Saturday.

Ol’ Man River is being nibbled at as if he may be going to run but it’s anyone’s guess up until Aiden makes the announcement.

The Clerk of The Course seems to think the ground will be on the fast side of good for the Guineas. If they get a bit more rain he thinks it would perhaps be good ground but there is no sign of the downpour and soft ground that was put forward as a possibility earlier in the thread, in his mind at least.

Frankie will be riding Moheet with Gregory Benoist on The Wow Signal. I don’t fancy either of them, Moheet doesn’t look quite at the level required and The Wow Signal will be facing a trip that is unknown territory and I doubt he’ll get a mile.

With Gleneagles at 11/4 now, it might tempt a few people but I can’t back him at those odds and am leaning towards Andre Fabre’s colt now that he’s been supplemented.

Territories has burst on to the betting scene for the race from out of nowhere but I think it is worth taking the hint that his trainer has seen fit to pay the money to come here. He isn’t far behind Gleneagles on form and may have improved over the winter. He’s a distance winner and the trainer has said genuine good ground is what the horse wants. He’s had a run and won, so that gives him an edge on some of them.

The trials didn’t throw up much to get too excited about and there are questions at the trip for some contenders. I may yet see my main ante-post bets Ol’ Man River and Ivawood line up but confidence has hardly been high behind O’Brien’s horse and Ivawood still doesn’t convince me that he’s got over his Middle Park defeat. In the circumstances I think Territories is the bet and I think he’s pretty sure to go close on Saturday. He’s my main bet this year and at 7/1, it seems inconceivable that fellow supplementee Intilaaq is as little as one point bigger for winning a maiden, albeit in terrific style. He needs to find another stone at least and I can’t recall a five grand maiden winner lifting a Guineas next start.

Territories for me at 7/1, I reckon I’d have him at 5/1 if I was making a book on the race.

2000 Guineas Territories 7/1 (Ladbrokes and a couple of others)

After much tooing and froing I have just backed Dutch Connection at 25/1 purely because he has about three lengths to make up on Gleneagles and was ridden shockingly tactics wise IMO in Ireland last time.
Of the seven horses rated higher than him…

BELARDO wants soft ground.

IVAWOOD not sure to get the trip and disappointed even if he needed the run last time.

ELM PARK wants further AND soft ground.

THE WOW SIGNAL won’t get a mile in a horse box!!!

ESTIDKHAAR has a chance as long as the jockey learns to settle him.

MUHAARAR won’t run in this.

KOOL KOMPANY not classy enough.

That leaves GLENEAGLES and the supplements INTLAAQ and TERRITORIES.

GLENEAGLES has a great chance but is no value whatsoever.

INTLAAQ I can’t have on my mind but maybe they have supplemented him because they don’t think ESTIDKHAAR is good enough

TERRITORIES is trained by the master but was it Andre’s decision or Sheikh Mo’s to supplement ?

My three for exactas would be GLENEAGLES DUTCH CONNECTION and ESTIDKHAAR but a lot can happen between now and the weekend.