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There seem plenty of misconceptions about the ground, with no rain since Thursday morning I doubt it will be riding much slower than good to soft/good in places. The Rowley Mile drains so quickly, had the wind been stronger it could even have been good by race time.
However, it doesn’t make finding the winner any easier! On a line through Learn, Camelot has the beating of the French raiders but just how tuned up he will be for this remains to be seen. I think Power will confirm the Dewhurst form but he still needs to improve to win a normal Guineas. Of this season’s trials I was most taken with Boomerang Bob and while there have been questions raised about his stamina I think he will run a big race.
Top Offer is the real unknown, with very little form to go on, his trainer clearly thinks a lot of him. His price is based on hype and represents no value but I think he will be a group 1 winning performer before he retires. His second dam is bred along similar lines to El Gran Senor so it would be very nice if he can emulate his illustrious relative.I don’t really know where to start. I’m not convinced that Camelot is ready to play his A game, I think he will come right later, so he’s not for me.
Abtaal has beaten French Fifteen, French Fifteen has beaten Abtaal, and both have beaten Hermival. I don’t think there is a star among any of the French horses, not for me.
I’m not convinced Power needs 1m, especially where it is at all testing. His entries, as has been pointed out, suggest he may be best at shorter, not for me.
Born to Sea, if he weren’t related to See the Stars, would not be 10-1, not on what he has shown. He could be very good, but he’s not shown enough ….he’s not for me.
Trumpet Major is a straight forward decent horse, but he still doesn’t look anything special. He won the Craven well, but I don’t think that was a particularly strong race. He is honest and if he were a bigger price than 10-1 I would strongly be considering an E/W, so he’s not for me.
Top Offer is a major headache to me, his maiden win looked top notch, but many a 2 year old looks special early and then doesn’t progress. He really could be anything, and as I don’t think there is anything that stands out like a sore thumb, I am a little tempted with the 14-1 on offer. Roger Charlton knows his onions, and I don’t think he would throw him in without him showing serious progress at home. The trouble is, it is at home and he lacks the experience of a hard fought serious race. I’m not going to take him for that reason, although I could feel very silly after the race….not for me.
Having not been convinced by any at the top half of the market, my strategy is to unearth a decent e/w as I suspect there will be a couple of relatively unfancied horses, if not shocks in the shake up.
Both Casper Netcher and Bronterre are decent horses who have shown some very decent form. Casper won the Gimcrack and the Mill Reef very well last year, and is obviously in decent form coming off the back of win in the Greenham.
Bronterre won his first 2 races well, before finishing 4th in the Dewhurst behind Parish hall. He would have been a lot closer if he had not raced alone and then having joined the pack 2 furlongs out, he carried himself off to the right again. He came out in the Greeham, and was 3rd to Bronterre (at odds on) looking like he maybe needed the race.
Both these horses have shown enough to make them appealing at 28-1 and 33-1.
Which brings me to my eventual choice for a "surprise" e/w. I’m prepared to be shot down here for nominating a horse that has been beaten in his last 4 races. Boomerang Bob won his maiden then followed up with four seconds. But I don’t think that is as bad as it seems on face value. He ran a good running on second in the Norfolk Stakes, and again a good running on second in the Prix Du Bois at Chantilly last year (beaten by Family One who franked that form with a win in the Prix Robert Papin, and was second in the Darley Prix Morny at Deauville)
Boomerang Bob comes out this year in the Greenham, and splits Casper Netcher and Bronterre, running a decent race and staying on. Probably just needing the race, as were possibly the other two. But the strange thing, well it’s strange to me, is that whilst Casper Netcher and Bronterre are 28-1 and 33-1, Boomerang Bob is on offer at 100-1.
It’s clear I don’t think this is a very good 2000 Gns, and with very decent consistent form, I think that Boomerang Bob at 100-1 has to be worth an e/w squeak. (50-1 if you want to take the first 4 with Skybet)
Best of luck guys.
Eclipse First
Having just posted my piece on the race, I now see you have beaten me (whilst I was typing) to unearthing Boomerang Bob. I’m glad I’ve met a like minded spirit, I was expecting a bit of flack for a so called no hoper. I hope we are both smiling come 3.20.
Money seems to be going on Boomerang Bob as we speak but again he’s ben entered over 6f later in the season so connections must doubt his stamina? Only just realised that Talwar was supplemented so connections must have seen something in him, although not sure what the record is for horses that are supplemented for this class of race. Fascinating race and I can’t wait to see which stats hold up. I’m sure there’s a big price to be found out there but I’m still scratching my head. So, with not having any bets I’ll hope that Born to Sea will follow in his brothers footsteps as I’m sure his mum will be looking down on him.
Eclipse First
Having just posted my piece on the race, I now see you have beaten me (whilst I was typing) to unearthing Boomerang Bob. I’m glad I’ve met a like minded spirit, I was expecting a bit of flack for a so called no hoper. I hope we are both smiling come 3.20.
I did have a little bit on when he touched 400 on Betfair. I can resist everything but temptation!
Caspar Netscher has the best time rating. He is within four pounds of the best of these on form, in a very open race. He will like the ground. He has won a classic trial. He is fit and well. The pace will be quick, and he has the speed to cruise at a fast pace. He is very well bred. He might have a speedy sire, but there is a lot more stamina in his pedigree than some give him credit for. His stamina might be questioned because he ran in the top six furlong races last year, but he has never run as though he will not stay the mile. If he is ridden as if he certainly gets the mile he has a very good chance. He is a good bet at 28/1.
He’s got Singspiel on the damside so there’s an interesting mix of speed and stamina.
As a 2yo Caspar Netscher got unbalanced going downhill (Epsom, Goodwood and Rowley Mile), if his stamina holds out there’s no guarantee he will handle the dip any better than he did in the Middle Park.
With the winner likely to tackle further for the remainder of the season, one has to believe that France have the best 3YO milers in Europe this year.
French Fifteen found only Camelot too good, while Hermival is open to any amount of improvement. Dragon Pulse and Dabirsim, both arguably superior, will display their respective credentials in the Poule d’Essai.
A typically cool ride for Joseph and I look forward to seeing Frankel vs Camelot later in the season.
I was very impressed with that. I think Camelot with all that speed breeding on the Dam Sire side and the Quality of French Fifteen’s breeding gave us a fair result,
Camelot could well be an English triple crown winner.
Don’t forget Harbour Watch is s’possed to be Hannons best 3 year old miler and he never showed. Chuffed I got on my bike last year and cycled down William Hills for a speculative anti post wager on the then unraced Camelot at 50/1 for the Derby. TBH I was surprised he won today though. Classy horse, jockey and trainer.
It was a great ride indeed from Joseph O’Brien. The winning margin today represents the fine line between being lauded for a cool ride as transpired, or being slated on this forum or elsewhere for being a boy in a man’s job.
Today showed that Camelot has plenty of temperament to match his class, but I think he will rank as one of the best 2000 Guineas winners in the last decade by the time his career is over. I doubt it will be over this distance where he builds that reputation, though. That is why he is so exciting!
Nice ride from JOB but how good a Guineas it was is very difficult to work out. I found it very boring to be honest (no I never lost money I greened up.
Maybe it was the ground or the act they split into 3 Groups but there was nothing in that race that would have me running to back Camelot or the Derby.
There simply has to be better to come.
My old mate Bos is looking forward to Camelot V Frankel but I doubt if Henry will be losing any sleep if AOB decides to take him on
looking through some of the threads and posts regarding the guineas this year, i can in a way understand the ignorance shown towards camelot.
i think the main reason for the knocking of camelot winning the guineas is the fact that people cannot get round the fact that there is a horse in a position of winning the triple crown.
the best horse for a long time – sea the stars. then the aura canford cliffs created until getting binned off by frankel, who has now proved himself as another legend. and of course there is black caviar, who is a legend in her own country, and is on the verge of dominating british racing to become yet another legend.
this has created a buzz in racing, and people can’t get over the fact that there are so many good horses at the moment capable of making history.
if BC remains unbeaten this year after running in the uk, she will be considered by some the best sprinter ever. if frankel remains unbeaten some may even argue that he is the best horse there has ever been. but the point i am trying to make is that if camelot wins the triple crown, surely he will top all of this, with barely a fraction of the recognition?
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