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Personally feel that although you can compare Camelot and SNA they are very different horses. They share the same sire and they both won the Racing Post trophy. I do however feel that SNA always looked a pretty fragile horse whereas Camelot looks a very well put together horse and a bit more powerful if that makes sense. Also worth saying this years Guineas is looking a weaker renewal and is pretty likely to be run on softish ground which I don’t think will hinder Camelot at all. Rattling fast ground would really put me off the horse over a mile but everything seems to be falling into place for him to give a very bold run.
I’m also a big fan of Born To Sea and despite getting beat by Nephrite I’ve always had a lot of confidence in him as a potentially smart miler. If he’s going to be doing anything it’s going to be over a mile there is no way he will get much further. He has the Urban Sea blood combined with speed from Invincible Spirit and it would be fantastic if he could win a classic this season. He’s not going to be winning Derby’s so I’m guessing John Oxx will have him primed for the race at Newmarket.
Of the rest I feel Top Offer is an unknown he could be anything but he will need to be very good to win on the back of one run. It’s far from impossible he can win and Roger Charlton clearly rates him very highly but there’s not much juice in his current price and I wouldn’t be surprised if a better price may be available on the day. Abtaal looks to me the better of the french runners. I feel he will come on a lot for his first run and would be surprised if he didn’t reverse the form with French Fifteen. He was a superior horse at 2 imo and I feel he will also be as a 3yo. Power would be the other horse I have a lot of respect for and seems to have been slightly underrated. He’s been extremely consistent unlucky not to have remained unbeaten at 2 and is open to more improvement. He won the Coventry very well and despite showing plenty of speed to win over 6f he will love races over a mile this season. He’s very tough has a lot of class and probably should have won the Dewhurst for me.
Camelot and Born To Sea to battle it out but I think Power & Abtaal could well be in the mix.Camalot will drift on the day. Can’t see him shorter than 6/4.
May be I shouldn’t have said that. If it’s soft not many will act and puts more emphasis on stamina.
Value Is EverythingAlthough I backed Harbour Watch to win ante post, I’m relieved to of had a saver on Born To Sea each way at 40/1. I also had a cheeky £5 win double on Maybe and Power at crazy odds last year! My ante post bet of the season was getting on Camelot for the Derby at 50/1… Yeah I’m bragging… Hope one of them comes in, I need a holiday!
Does anyone understand the price discrepancy between Trumpet Major and Talwar?
Talwar beat Trumpet Major twice last year, has won on reappearance this year, and Trumpet Major put in a good performance in the Craven.
Talwar has been supplemented so they can’t be running it without some justification and currently Trumpet Major is 8/1 and Talwar is 40/1!
Can somebody enlighten me?
Maybe its because Talwar achieved a RPR of 101 for his Lingfield all weather win and Trumpet Major was give 118 for his G3 Craven Stakes win?
Trumpet Major also is the course and distance winner, maybe that too?
Talwar is 130 on betfair right now.
I think people are on the wrong AOB horse for this – Power fits the Guineas profile way more than Camelot. He was somewhat unlucky to be beaten by Parish Hall (who looks like he’ll appreciate the Derby more than this), and he should be there or thereabouts.
Of the rest, I’ll certainly consider the aforementioned Parish Hall, and I think French Fifteen might be a contender.
But since Newmarket is the place where my bets go to die, be careful!
Twitter=@PGHenn
So don't run, just like the others always do
Careful HGM, understand you’ve laid the horse, but "music to my ears" might sound as though you’re wishing injury on a horse. Not that nice for those on here who’ve backed Most Improved either.
Anyone know why the betfair market is suspended at the moment?
Stop trying to be the forum cop Ginger……when in 5 years of posting have I wished harm to any horse?……you are completely out of order.
Careful HGM, understand you’ve laid the horse, but "music to my ears" might sound as though you’re wishing injury on a horse. Not that nice for those on here who’ve backed Most Improved either.
Anyone know why the betfair market is suspended at the moment?
Stop trying to be the forum cop Ginger……when in 5 years of posting have I wished harm to any horse?……you are completely out of order.
Stop trying to make a mountain out of a mole hill HGM.
I said "
music to my ears
might sound as though
you’re wishing injury on a horse",
NOT
that you "
are
wishing injury on a horse". Just think you could have put it better than (or greeted the news better than)…
"Music to my ears
"I also went on to say "Am sure HGM didn’t mean how it sounded".
To answer your question HGM, I’ve never heard you wish any harm on a horse, which is why I was surprised at this tactless comment.
Can assure you HGM no offence was meant by my comment.
Value Is EverythingI think people are on the wrong AOB horse for this – Power fits the Guineas profile way more than Camelot. He was somewhat unlucky to be beaten by Parish Hall (who looks like he’ll appreciate the Derby more than this), and he should be there or thereabouts.
Of the rest, I’ll certainly consider the aforementioned Parish Hall, and I think French Fifteen might be a contender.
But since Newmarket is the place where my bets go to die, be careful!
I quite like Power myself, the draw killed him in the Dewhurst. It’s difficult to gauge where he is at in terms of fitness, training on etc though. Maybe an Irish Guineas could suit more at this stage…
Born To Sea has an okay profile, I think the Leopardstown race will leave enough question marks about him for the public to leave him relatively alone in the market, even with the Sea The Stars factor (hopefully anyway!)
Looking at the prices right now, the "value" horses (imo) seem to be:
Trumpet Major
@ 12/1 (and 5/2 the place)
Power
@ 14/1 (under-rated just because he’s second string)
Paris Hall
@ 21/1 (will he run?)
Casper Netcher
@ 29/1 (real chance if (big IF) he stays)
Hermival
@ 31/1 (behind Abtaal and French Fifteen, but less exposed)
And perhaps best of all…Mandean
@ 59/1 (Already a winner of a Group 1 @ 1m2f on soft ground, now with Godolphin, IF it came up a real test of stamina could surprise a few)
I’d say Mandean and Trumpet Major are the best value bets.
Value Is EverythingRichard Hannon warned there may not be much between his 2 runners but I’d be very surprised if either proved anywhere near good enough.
Camelot has yet to prove on the track he’s an outstanding colt.
The Racing Post Trophy is mainly contested by slower types than win Guineas. As impressive as he was I doubt if the form is anything special but to be fair he could be.Must be said that once Top Offer took command in his maiden those behind weren’t given a hard race. He’s the hard one to work out here he looked good and could be anything.
Beyond those 2 you start to struggle and that makes me wonder if the French can win this.
Abtaal is highly regarded and would be much shorter were he UK trained.
I saw nothing last season to suggest UK 2 year olds were anything more than an ordinary lot so I’m with the froggies on this one.
Abtaal
if the video of the prix djebel is anything to go by then the french aren’t anything special.
I think born to sea will struggle to get the trip in this ground. his trainer suggested as much (interview in the racing post today)
Aidan O’Brien says the disastrous 2,000 Guineas experience of St Nicholas Abbey in 2010 is behind his reluctance to publicly commit hot favourite Camelot to Saturday’s race.
The Evens favourite is on course for the Newmarket Classic but his trainer has been determined not to rush the unbeaten colt’s preparation.
Read more: <!– m –>http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/racing … z1tdn8iW3l<!– m –>
A week before the Guineas and this is what he says.How can you rush a preparation a week before the race?Is there something I don’t understans?Think he just means the horse has not been pushed with this race in mind, so he might just be treating it like a trial for the Derby.
Abtaal is a very early foal as well, and I always reckon a month or two makes a big difference when horses are this young. But he’s not entered in any races over 8f and I’m wondering if more of a staying type will win if the ground is on the soft side. The Coolmore horses are all entered for everything but Parish Hall is entered for 8/10/12 f races and is another early foal. Not having looked at the race at all till yesterday I was surprised to see Top Offer priced at 6/1, because he ticked every box but then I realised he’d only won a cl4 race; however, I haven’t seen the manner of his victory. Power is entered in a 6f race later in the year, so I can’t see him staying [famous last words].
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